Mike Simonsen
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mikesimonsen.bsky.social
Mike Simonsen
@mikesimonsen.bsky.social
I help people understand the housing market. Now: Chief Economist, Compass. Prev: Founder CEO Altos Research (acq by HWMedia)
Also available on the Compass YouTube channel:

youtu.be/CoEIFFgNOCQ?...
Real Estate Conversations | Episode 1: Understanding Mortgage Rates Today
YouTube video by Compass
youtu.be
October 8, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Maryland is just playing catch up!
October 3, 2025 at 12:10 AM
Interesting that LA is less affordable than SF in your set. Is that because LA renters have significantly lower income?
September 24, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Some millennial will thank you for the infill opportunity.
September 24, 2025 at 2:05 PM
In specific, you keep referencing data from several years ago.

Wall Street funds are in fact net sellers of homes right now.

So to the extent that they deserve blame for home price increases during the free money era, they deserve credit now for dropping prices in the towns where prices are down
September 23, 2025 at 3:00 PM
The result is that we support existing home owners and their prices. To the detriment of those who don’t yet own.

I’m of the view that blaming Wall Street for the crisis is myopic and naive, when really we should be blaming “Americans.”
September 23, 2025 at 3:00 PM
But those policies: eg zoning laws, low taxes, environmental laws, foreclosure prevention all exist for “good” reasons.

We don’t want to kick grandma out of her house because of high taxes.
We don’t want to build on every square inch of land…
September 23, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Because we’re so favorable to owners, real estate has been a great investment in that time.

Wall Street is a tiny tiny portion of the investor class. That money was what pulled us out of the GFC finally!

There are lots of policy changes we should make to fix the crisis.
September 23, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Look, you’re not alone in seeking blame for our affordability crisis and there’s no more ready-made-villain than “Wall Street Landlord.”

But in fact we have 60 years with every law, tax, policy in the US inflating home prices to help homeowners, to the detriment of those who do not yet own.
September 23, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Furthermore, investors are an important and valuable part of the housing economy.

Most renters are not in a position to buy. They *need* rental homes to rent!

It is a misinterpretation to assume that if an investor buys a house that means a homeowner cannot.
September 23, 2025 at 4:09 AM
Investors is not the same a “Wall St”

Only 4% of all investor purchases are firms with more that 1000 homes.

96% of investor purchases are people who own 1-4 homes. Otherwise known as “Americans”.

www.housingwire.com/articles/no-...
No, Wall Street investors are not buying up a bunch of homes
The share of institutional investors buying houses is even lower in 2024 than last year, when it was nowhere near the reported 44%.
www.housingwire.com
September 23, 2025 at 4:07 AM
My guess is you’ll barely notice it. We’ve been anticipating the Silver Tsunami for at least a decade. Boomers are still net buyers of real estate. They don’t want to sell ever. At some point the grandkids will get a house or two.
September 23, 2025 at 3:58 AM
I assume you shared that bc you think that “Wall Street” is keeping prices artificially high?

Alas, nope. Wall Street owns a tiny fraction of the homes. Like 1%. In fact the towns like Tampa and Phoenix where those companies invested the most money are the markets where prices have dropped the most
September 23, 2025 at 3:54 AM
7/7 Some buyers are waiting for lower rates and lower prices. The data says they may get one or the other but both may be elusive.

This week's video:

youtu.be/r_kNzYC7J0Y?...
Why Home Prices Aren’t Falling Like You Might Expect
YouTube video by Compass
youtu.be
September 22, 2025 at 11:16 PM
6/7 We see it in the price reductions too.

41.5% of the homes have taken a price cut from the original list price. That level isn't increasing.
September 22, 2025 at 11:16 PM
5/7 This "downside stickiness" psychology is a key reason for price stability.
This week, the median price of new pending contracts ticked up to $397,500, coming in almost 2% above the same week last year.
September 22, 2025 at 11:16 PM
4/7 But here's the interesting part:

Even with limited supply, newly pending sales were up almost 5% from last year this week. We counted 77,000 sales contracts started this week.
More transactions are getting done in states with more available inventory.
September 22, 2025 at 11:16 PM