Michael Dinerstein
@mikedinerstein.bsky.social
Reposted by Michael Dinerstein
#QJE May 2025, #11, “Teacher Labor Market Policy and the Theory of the Second Best,” by Bates, Dinerstein (@mikedinerstein.bsky.social), Johnston, and Sorkin: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Teacher Labor Market Policy and the Theory of the Second Best*
Abstract. We estimate a matching model of teachers and elementary schools with rich data on teachers' applications and principals' ratings from a large, ur
doi.org
April 16, 2025 at 6:53 PM
#QJE May 2025, #11, “Teacher Labor Market Policy and the Theory of the Second Best,” by Bates, Dinerstein (@mikedinerstein.bsky.social), Johnston, and Sorkin: doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
Tagging Dmitri Koustas correctly this time: @dkoust.bsky.social
February 16, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Tagging Dmitri Koustas correctly this time: @dkoust.bsky.social
The paper has more results and interpretation. Feedback welcome! 13/13
February 16, 2025 at 6:10 PM
The paper has more results and interpretation. Feedback welcome! 13/13
Focusing on borrowers subject to primarily a wealth shock (no change in payments due), we test and fail to reject the PIH. Borrowers do smooth as predicted, mostly through labor supply! 12/13
February 16, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Focusing on borrowers subject to primarily a wealth shock (no change in payments due), we test and fail to reject the PIH. Borrowers do smooth as predicted, mostly through labor supply! 12/13
Are these responses surprising? The permanent income hypothesis (PIH) predicts borrowers would “smooth” the wealth shock over time. 11/13
February 16, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Are these responses surprising? The permanent income hypothesis (PIH) predicts borrowers would “smooth” the wealth shock over time. 11/13
We use novel survey data on borrowers’ expectations of forgiveness to translate the effects into an MPC of 0.27 and an MPE of -0.49. Size of labor supply response stands out. 10/13
February 16, 2025 at 6:10 PM
We use novel survey data on borrowers’ expectations of forgiveness to translate the effects into an MPC of 0.27 and an MPE of -0.49. Size of labor supply response stands out. 10/13
CONSUMPTION? We find sharp increases in mortgage, auto and credit card spending following loan forgiveness ($0.09 per $1 of forgiveness). 9/13
February 16, 2025 at 6:10 PM
CONSUMPTION? We find sharp increases in mortgage, auto and credit card spending following loan forgiveness ($0.09 per $1 of forgiveness). 9/13
Results consistent with wealth effects and job lock. Estimated labor supply response similar to responses to lottery wins. 8/13
February 16, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Results consistent with wealth effects and job lock. Estimated labor supply response similar to responses to lottery wins. 8/13
Effects stronger among hourly workers, 50% coming through reduced wages, 50% reduced hours. We also see increases in industry switching and leaving public service. 7/13
February 16, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Effects stronger among hourly workers, 50% coming through reduced wages, 50% reduced hours. We also see increases in industry switching and leaving public service. 7/13
Causal effect on LABOR SUPPLY: Over 6 mos post-forgiveness, borrowers earn $44 less (2%), effect growing over time. 6/13
February 16, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Causal effect on LABOR SUPPLY: Over 6 mos post-forgiveness, borrowers earn $44 less (2%), effect growing over time. 6/13
Biden’s (blocked) proposal would have been much less regressive, mostly because of earnings cutoffs. 5/13
February 16, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Biden’s (blocked) proposal would have been much less regressive, mostly because of earnings cutoffs. 5/13
On targeting, forgiven borrowers earn more than other borrowers, largely due to being older. But even at same age, they earn $115 more per month ($1,240 more than those without college). 4/13
February 16, 2025 at 6:10 PM
On targeting, forgiven borrowers earn more than other borrowers, largely due to being older. But even at same age, they earn $115 more per month ($1,240 more than those without college). 4/13
We look at the (1) targeting and (2) causal effects of forgiveness. 3/13
February 16, 2025 at 6:10 PM
We look at the (1) targeting and (2) causal effects of forgiveness. 3/13
Note: This was not the broad forgiveness plan that was struck down by the Supreme Court. Instead, it came through a variety of admin. reforms and expansions. 2/13
February 16, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Note: This was not the broad forgiveness plan that was struck down by the Supreme Court. Instead, it came through a variety of admin. reforms and expansions. 2/13
Congratulations!!
November 19, 2024 at 2:58 PM
Congratulations!!