Mike Brewer
@mikebrewerecon.bsky.social
Deputy Chief Executive Resolution Foundation & Visiting Prof in Practice at LSE Social Policy. 'Calm, Measured, Withering' http://tinyurl.com/y6wxlxhj). 'Cool, calm analysis' (More or Less, 8/10/25). He/him
Neither literally not metaphorically is the IFS an SW1 think-tank.
June 12, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Neither literally not metaphorically is the IFS an SW1 think-tank.
Absolutely outrageous from Politico's evening email. Since when did we use US spelling? 😉
June 11, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Absolutely outrageous from Politico's evening email. Since when did we use US spelling? 😉
Me on the child poverty strategy, now rumoured to be due this autumn.
May 23, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Me on the child poverty strategy, now rumoured to be due this autumn.
I was lucky enough to be on the list for Wednesday's Education and Skills Garden Party at Buckingham Palace. Here's me and my daughter Catherine enjoying the sun (and, not shown here, the cakes).
May 16, 2025 at 1:13 PM
I was lucky enough to be on the list for Wednesday's Education and Skills Garden Party at Buckingham Palace. Here's me and my daughter Catherine enjoying the sun (and, not shown here, the cakes).
About two-thirds of the welfare cuts announced today are concentrated among households in the bottom half of the income distribution, while the Government’s own impact assessment says that 250,000 people will fall below the poverty line as a result of these measures.
March 26, 2025 at 6:02 PM
About two-thirds of the welfare cuts announced today are concentrated among households in the bottom half of the income distribution, while the Government’s own impact assessment says that 250,000 people will fall below the poverty line as a result of these measures.
Today's Spring Statement confirmed several years of slightly above-inflation increases to standard allowance of Universal Credit.
This is the first rise outside a pandemic, but it still leaves the core rate of benefits about 5% lower than in 2010 .
This is the first rise outside a pandemic, but it still leaves the core rate of benefits about 5% lower than in 2010 .
March 26, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Today's Spring Statement confirmed several years of slightly above-inflation increases to standard allowance of Universal Credit.
This is the first rise outside a pandemic, but it still leaves the core rate of benefits about 5% lower than in 2010 .
This is the first rise outside a pandemic, but it still leaves the core rate of benefits about 5% lower than in 2010 .
Last October, the Government said: "It is shameful that child poverty has increased by 700,000 since 2010, with over four million children now living in poverty in the UK."
This rise in poverty was not due to a lack of breakfast clubs.
https://buff.ly/3XecgAk
This rise in poverty was not due to a lack of breakfast clubs.
https://buff.ly/3XecgAk
February 24, 2025 at 9:09 AM
Last October, the Government said: "It is shameful that child poverty has increased by 700,000 since 2010, with over four million children now living in poverty in the UK."
This rise in poverty was not due to a lack of breakfast clubs.
https://buff.ly/3XecgAk
This rise in poverty was not due to a lack of breakfast clubs.
https://buff.ly/3XecgAk
Big thumbs up to this from @willdunn.bsky.social
January 24, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Big thumbs up to this from @willdunn.bsky.social
Wait - did I miss this when I read The Watchmen? Will have to reread.
January 11, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Wait - did I miss this when I read The Watchmen? Will have to reread.
Northampton Museum's dissent exhibition (it closes today). Featuring Northamptonshire's own Alan Moore
December 1, 2024 at 3:19 PM
Northampton Museum's dissent exhibition (it closes today). Featuring Northamptonshire's own Alan Moore
Outstanding survey design from the LSE.
Item #1: asked for my age in the form dd/mm/yyyy.
Item #2. Unable to leave "Age" blank even though it's supposedly voluntary to provide it.
Item #1: asked for my age in the form dd/mm/yyyy.
Item #2. Unable to leave "Age" blank even though it's supposedly voluntary to provide it.
November 14, 2024 at 7:42 AM
Outstanding survey design from the LSE.
Item #1: asked for my age in the form dd/mm/yyyy.
Item #2. Unable to leave "Age" blank even though it's supposedly voluntary to provide it.
Item #1: asked for my age in the form dd/mm/yyyy.
Item #2. Unable to leave "Age" blank even though it's supposedly voluntary to provide it.
This week's Top of the Charts endeavours to find some good news, with research from CASE @ LSE, RAND, and more.
Plus, we've got a slow-burn chart on American democracy ⤵️ buff.ly/3UJmzLB
Plus, we've got a slow-burn chart on American democracy ⤵️ buff.ly/3UJmzLB
November 8, 2024 at 2:16 PM
This week's Top of the Charts endeavours to find some good news, with research from CASE @ LSE, RAND, and more.
Plus, we've got a slow-burn chart on American democracy ⤵️ buff.ly/3UJmzLB
Plus, we've got a slow-burn chart on American democracy ⤵️ buff.ly/3UJmzLB
The Budget leaves the size of the state overall broadly where it has been post-pandemic - the fact that this has happened despite a large increase in spending reflects that the plans she inherited to shrink the state were just not realistic.
October 31, 2024 at 12:17 PM
The Budget leaves the size of the state overall broadly where it has been post-pandemic - the fact that this has happened despite a large increase in spending reflects that the plans she inherited to shrink the state were just not realistic.
On the other hand, fiscal policy is still set to tighten quickly.
October 31, 2024 at 12:17 PM
On the other hand, fiscal policy is still set to tighten quickly.
This represents a major fiscal loosening compared to post-2010 fiscal events, which is not brilliantly timed given that the economy is thought to be at full capacity.
October 31, 2024 at 12:17 PM
This represents a major fiscal loosening compared to post-2010 fiscal events, which is not brilliantly timed given that the economy is thought to be at full capacity.
Where do these large changes to taxes and spending to do government borrowing? Borrowing is up substantially this year, and less so in future years (as the tax rises kick in), but overall the Budget has increased borrowing by £145 billion.
October 31, 2024 at 12:17 PM
Where do these large changes to taxes and spending to do government borrowing? Borrowing is up substantially this year, and less so in future years (as the tax rises kick in), but overall the Budget has increased borrowing by £145 billion.
As a result, investment will stay broadly constant as a share of GDP, rather than falling (as per Hunt's plans). As mentioned earlier, this will eventually lead to a growth dividend, but this is very small in the 5 years of the forecast (0.14% of GDP as a level effect).
October 31, 2024 at 12:17 PM
As a result, investment will stay broadly constant as a share of GDP, rather than falling (as per Hunt's plans). As mentioned earlier, this will eventually lead to a growth dividend, but this is very small in the 5 years of the forecast (0.14% of GDP as a level effect).
This measure of debt would have been falling, but the Chancellor has taken all that headroom and used it to borrow, chiefly to invest.
October 31, 2024 at 12:17 PM
This measure of debt would have been falling, but the Chancellor has taken all that headroom and used it to borrow, chiefly to invest.
The prospects for living standards overall are underwhelming. RHDI per person is set
to rise by 0.5% a year, or a total of £700 per person between the 2024 and 2029 elections. This in part reflects the Government's judgement to tax more to provide funds for public services.
to rise by 0.5% a year, or a total of £700 per person between the 2024 and 2029 elections. This in part reflects the Government's judgement to tax more to provide funds for public services.
October 31, 2024 at 12:17 PM
The prospects for living standards overall are underwhelming. RHDI per person is set
to rise by 0.5% a year, or a total of £700 per person between the 2024 and 2029 elections. This in part reflects the Government's judgement to tax more to provide funds for public services.
to rise by 0.5% a year, or a total of £700 per person between the 2024 and 2029 elections. This in part reflects the Government's judgement to tax more to provide funds for public services.
Having taken account of how a rise in employer NI will reduce wages in the medium-run, the distributional impact of this Budget is flat-ish. If we also account for changes to CGT and changes to wealth taxes (stamp duty & IHT), then the very richest are paying the most.
October 31, 2024 at 12:17 PM
Having taken account of how a rise in employer NI will reduce wages in the medium-run, the distributional impact of this Budget is flat-ish. If we also account for changes to CGT and changes to wealth taxes (stamp duty & IHT), then the very richest are paying the most.
We had few announcements affecting social security benefits, with two new giveaways being much smaller scale than the already-trailed takeaways (WCA reform and the Winter Fuel Payments). No word yet on the two child limit - all eyes are on next Spring's child poverty strategy.
October 31, 2024 at 12:17 PM
We had few announcements affecting social security benefits, with two new giveaways being much smaller scale than the already-trailed takeaways (WCA reform and the Winter Fuel Payments). No word yet on the two child limit - all eyes are on next Spring's child poverty strategy.
Elsewhere in the tax system, increases to some Capital Gains Tax rates have (slightly) closed (some) gaps in tax rates on different forms of income - but the Chancellor could definitely have gone further.
October 31, 2024 at 12:16 PM
Elsewhere in the tax system, increases to some Capital Gains Tax rates have (slightly) closed (some) gaps in tax rates on different forms of income - but the Chancellor could definitely have gone further.
One drawback of increasing employer NI (rather than reversing Hunt's NI cuts) is that it worsens the tax difference between employees and self-employed.
October 31, 2024 at 12:16 PM
One drawback of increasing employer NI (rather than reversing Hunt's NI cuts) is that it worsens the tax difference between employees and self-employed.
The employer NI changes are dominated by a large cut in the threshold at which payments start, although all employers will get the first £10,000 of employer rebated. In proportional terms, the biggest increase in the cost of employing someone is at around £9k.
October 31, 2024 at 12:16 PM
The employer NI changes are dominated by a large cut in the threshold at which payments start, although all employers will get the first £10,000 of employer rebated. In proportional terms, the biggest increase in the cost of employing someone is at around £9k.
This puts tax:GDP ratio to an all-time high, although still a lot less than many western European countries (who are also seeing tax:GDP ratios at an all-time high).
October 31, 2024 at 12:16 PM
This puts tax:GDP ratio to an all-time high, although still a lot less than many western European countries (who are also seeing tax:GDP ratios at an all-time high).