Mikaël Scaramucci
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Mikaël Scaramucci
@mikaelscaramucci.bsky.social
770 followers 770 following 330 posts
Econ PhD student at UCLA
🇪🇺🇬🇧🇫🇷🇺🇸🇪🇬
Interested in all things macroecon / international
US / Europe / Middle East politics

https://sites.google.com/view/mikaelscaramucci
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mikaelscaramucci.bsky.social
Finally, we estimate the contributions of intermediate and final trade cost shocks to inflation and GDP during the 2018-19 U.S.-China trade spat using our model. Both intermediate and final trade shocks contribute to making inflation higher, and growth weaker. (5/5)
Figure: Decomposition of US CPI and GDP Growth. 2 panels, each showing the model decomposition over the 2018-2023 period - US Inflation: inflation sees a slight decrease in 4-quarter change during 2019 and 2020, driven by domestic supply and demand shocks. Trade cost shocks however put upwards pressure on the inflation decrease, due to the first Trump trade war. Then in 2021 and 2022, there is a surge in inflation, up to 6 percent at its peak in the first quarter of 2022 driven by positive supply and demand shocks, which decrease in 2023. However, there are some positive pressures from trade cost shocks that come in, end 2022 and in 2023. - US GDP growth: 4-quarter change in US GDP growth sees a sharp decrease in 2020, mainly driven by a negative demand shock but also a slight negative trade cost shock. Growth rebounds in 2021 driven by a positive demand shock and modest positive trade cost shock, which outweighs the negative supply shock.
April 3, 2025 at 8:07 PM
mikaelscaramucci.bsky.social
…higher trade costs on intermediate goods result in a more persistent increase in inflation. The main mechanism operates through the differential response in marginal costs. Our model also implies lower economic activity, lower real wages, and increased monetary policy rates. (4/5)
Figure: effects on the U.S. of an increase in trade costs over 20 time periods. 9 panels (3 by 3): - Inflation: increase in inflation from final and intermediate goods trade costs, with final goods having larger initial effects and intermediate having more persistent effects. - GDP: both intermediate and final trade cost shocks lead to depressed GDP growth over 20 years, maximum of -0.8 p.p. In years 6 and 3 respectively. - Monetary policy rate: rise in p.p. Deviation from intermediate and final trade cost shocks, respectively peaking at 0.07 and 0.14 around the 5th year. - Real marginal cost: increase of 0.4 in Year 0 from intermediate goods trade cost shocks, decrease of -0.6 in year 0 for final trade cost shocks. - Real wage: -0.6 in Year 0 from final shocks which progressively return to 0 in year 20, whereas intermediate trade costs cause an initial -0.1 percent deviation which balloons to -0.5 in year 12 before decreasing again. - Consumption: intermediate and final trade cost shocks lead to decreases in consumption, which peak respectively at -0.7 percent deviation in year 7 and -0.9 in year 4. - Imports (panel 6) and Exports (panel 7): decreases in both of around -15 percent deviations in year 0 from intermediate and final trade costs, progressive return to -5 in year 20. - Trade Cost: the final and intermediate goods trade cost shocks are normalised to 10 p.p. Deviations in year 0. Note: Effects of a 10 percentage point increase in the U.S.'s trade costs from all trading partners on final consumption goods (blue circled line) and intermediate inputs (red solid line).
April 3, 2025 at 8:07 PM
mikaelscaramucci.bsky.social
Using panel local projection methods, we show that blanket 10% increase in iceberg trade costs results in an 0.8 percentage point increase in inflation on impact and carry some persistence for up to 5 years. (2/5)
Figure: Effects on CPI inflation of Higher Trade Costs. The figure is comprised of two line charts. Both charts show the percentage point change between -0.25 and 1 on the y-axis and the years between 0 and 5 on the x-axis. The charts both have a solid black line that shows the percentage point change across the years with a shaded area around the line that represents the 70 percent confidence intervals. The chart on the left shows the CPI response to trade costs in intermediate goods. The black line starts above 0.25 percentage point change for years 0 to 1, then decreases to slightly above 0 percentage point change for years 2 to 5. The chart on the right shows the CPI response to trade costs in final goods. The black line starts around 0.50 in year 0, then steadily decreases to 0 in year 3. It remains near 0 from years 3 to 5. Note: The figure shows the consumer price index (CPI) response to a 10 percentage point increase in trade costs. Solid lines show the average response across countries. Shaded areas show the 70 percent confidence intervals.
April 3, 2025 at 8:07 PM
mikaelscaramucci.bsky.social
Lunar Eclipse in LA
Lunar eclipse - moon is red.
March 14, 2025 at 7:34 AM
mikaelscaramucci.bsky.social
Doesn’t sound like a White House willing to wait until 1st of March.
Al Jazeera: White House confirms looming tariffs on Canada and Mexico The White House's Leavitt dismisses reports that Trump will postpone his promised 25 percent tariffs on the two countries, saying that the trade measures will be in effect starting Saturday. "I can confirm that tomorrow, the February 1 deadline that President Trump put into place at a statement several weeks ago continues," she told reporters. "The president will be implementing tomorrow a 25 percent tariffs on Mexico, 25 percent tariffs on Canada, and a 10 percent tariff on China."
January 31, 2025 at 6:29 PM
mikaelscaramucci.bsky.social
@diplomatofnight.com on a related note this from Olaf Scholz today was… something
Politico excerpt: “Scholz invoked the support that the U.S. and its allies have given to Ukraine in defending itself from Russia’s invasion, “to protect the sovereignty and integrity of Ukraine and also the principle of the inviolability of borders.” “This is a fundamental principle of international law and a core component of what we call ‘Western values,’” he said in a speech at the chancellery. “This cannot and must not be shaken.” “The principle of the inviolability of borders applies to every country, regardless of whether it lies to the east or west of us, and every state must abide by it, regardless of whether it is a small country or a very powerful state.”
January 9, 2025 at 12:15 AM
mikaelscaramucci.bsky.social
LA fires as seen last night from UCLA’s campus
A plume of smoke rises in the distance behind grad student residential buildings around sunset.
January 8, 2025 at 4:46 PM
mikaelscaramucci.bsky.social
From a different interview he gave this week in the FT
Anthony Blinken telling a Financial Times reporter that “genocide” can be applied to the Uyghur’s treatment from China but not Palestinians in Gaza
January 4, 2025 at 6:13 PM
mikaelscaramucci.bsky.social
Emmanuel Macron after a call with Putin over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - photoshoot released by Élysée Palace of him dramatically acting despondent as though he is in a rom-com.
December 10, 2024 at 6:20 PM