Extremely disappointing. Here's a breakdown of the vote.

Yes, those are good proxies. It will depend on the turnout and of how much wasted votes get redistributed. Here a prediction from a decent sociologist, though there have only been two opinion polls published this week and the quality of polls is low: tinyurl.com/mr268748 tinyurl.com/r5yssaj3

I mostly agree and it will be sad and frustrating if none of them makes it into Parliament, but SENS are arguing that their potential voters would have stayed home if they accepted to join a coalition with a (economically) more right wing party...

Maybe of interest @ralucahippie.bsky.social @timhaughton.bsky.social @benstanley.pl @lenkabustikova.bsky.social @isadesisto.bsky.social @dimitarbechev.bsky.social @zsolt.bsky.social @jrovny.bsky.social @petraguasti.bsky.social @allansikk.bsky.social @medzihorsky.bsky.social

You can read here a somewhat longer explanation I wrote for Oxford Analytica regarding the outcome of the first round of the presidential elections and its implications for Romanian politics: tinyurl.com/ya4kj6v8

Given the recent backlash against grand coalitions and the likely fragmentation of parliament, the likelihood of a minority coalition cabinet is increasing. However, the parties will be incentivised to compromise, given the constitutional difficulties in calling early elections to resolve deadlock.

Diaspora voters, accounting for around 10% of votes in the presidential elections, will continue to split their options between the far-right and liberal or progressive new parties, but they will influence less the final results as their only elect 6 MPs & they need to demonstrate residency abroad.

New progressive force. Socially liberal voters with leftist economic views have had no party, but two alternatives have emerged recently (SENS & REPER). One of them may clear the 5% electoral threshold with SENS being more likely, having contributed to the election of the first Romanian Green MEP.

Benefiting from their president Lasconi’s unexpected success in the 1st round of presid. elections, the liberal USR could emerge as the main centre-right party ahead of PNL. The Constitutional Court’s decision to ask for a full recount of the presid. election vote will mobilise their voters.

An increased number of far-right MPs. Mainly from the Alliance for Union of Romanians (ECR member), which could become the 2nd largest party, but also SOS Romania & Young People’s Party (POT) which are closer to Georgescu in their extremist views and usage of overt pro-Russian and anti-EU rhetoric.

Substantial realignment. While the protest vote against the 2 parties is likely to continue at the parliam. elections, their leaders’ resignations might limit losses. Bandwagon effects from the shocking 1st round of presidential elections are expected both for far-right parties and for the USR.

Awesome, thanks a lot!