Miguel Selas
@miguelselas.bsky.social
Software engineer, market research and competitive intelligence. CEO at Inteliens
Reposted by Miguel Selas
NEW 🧵 Is human intelligence starting to decline?
Recent results from major international tests show that the average person’s capacity to process information, use reasoning and solve novel problems has been falling since around the mid 2010s
What should we make of this?
www.ft.com/content/a801...
Recent results from major international tests show that the average person’s capacity to process information, use reasoning and solve novel problems has been falling since around the mid 2010s
What should we make of this?
www.ft.com/content/a801...
March 14, 2025 at 1:18 PM
NEW 🧵 Is human intelligence starting to decline?
Recent results from major international tests show that the average person’s capacity to process information, use reasoning and solve novel problems has been falling since around the mid 2010s
What should we make of this?
www.ft.com/content/a801...
Recent results from major international tests show that the average person’s capacity to process information, use reasoning and solve novel problems has been falling since around the mid 2010s
What should we make of this?
www.ft.com/content/a801...
Reposted by Miguel Selas
I hope more people come to understand this. Life equips us with certain categorical boxes like “intelligence.” When something like LLMs appears that requires a new box, we would much rather stuff it into one of our old ones, no matter how bad the fit.
1. @alisongopnik.bsky.social, Cosma Shalizi, James Evans and myself have a new piece in Science on "AI" Large Models, pushing back against much of the collective wisdom about what they can and can't do. Official below, unpaywalled at henryfarrell.net/large-ai-mod... . So why this now?
Large AI models are cultural and social technologies
Implications draw on the history of transformative information systems from the past
www.science.org
March 14, 2025 at 3:47 PM
I hope more people come to understand this. Life equips us with certain categorical boxes like “intelligence.” When something like LLMs appears that requires a new box, we would much rather stuff it into one of our old ones, no matter how bad the fit.
Reposted by Miguel Selas
Reposted by Miguel Selas
In my latest article, I look at the bet on material prices between Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich, and ask who would have won over different decades of the 20th and early 21st century.
Also discuss why their bet wasn't a good test of either of their worldviews.
ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlic...
Also discuss why their bet wasn't a good test of either of their worldviews.
ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlic...
Who would have won the Simon-Ehrlich bet over different decades, and what do long-term prices tell us about resource scarcity?
In the 1980s, economist Julian Simon won his bet with biologist Paul Ehrlich on mineral prices. But what does the long-term data tell us about supply and demand for resources?
ourworldindata.org
January 10, 2025 at 6:13 AM
In my latest article, I look at the bet on material prices between Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich, and ask who would have won over different decades of the 20th and early 21st century.
Also discuss why their bet wasn't a good test of either of their worldviews.
ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlic...
Also discuss why their bet wasn't a good test of either of their worldviews.
ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlic...
Reposted by Miguel Selas
Appropriate mix of headlines. Climate change accelerates, while the business world, under pressure from US conservatives, abandons any attempt to stop it
January 10, 2025 at 5:02 AM
Appropriate mix of headlines. Climate change accelerates, while the business world, under pressure from US conservatives, abandons any attempt to stop it
Reposted by Miguel Selas
If you feel that BlueSky is “different“ from X, the data supports you :)
Using a network of 15M users (56% of the platform) we find that the probability that the log-normal law is wrong wrt to the power-law is just ~7%
Why that matters? Pop 🧵 follows!
1/
#scaling #NetSky #ComplexSystems 🧪
Using a network of 15M users (56% of the platform) we find that the probability that the log-normal law is wrong wrt to the power-law is just ~7%
Why that matters? Pop 🧵 follows!
1/
#scaling #NetSky #ComplexSystems 🧪
January 8, 2025 at 9:55 AM
If you feel that BlueSky is “different“ from X, the data supports you :)
Using a network of 15M users (56% of the platform) we find that the probability that the log-normal law is wrong wrt to the power-law is just ~7%
Why that matters? Pop 🧵 follows!
1/
#scaling #NetSky #ComplexSystems 🧪
Using a network of 15M users (56% of the platform) we find that the probability that the log-normal law is wrong wrt to the power-law is just ~7%
Why that matters? Pop 🧵 follows!
1/
#scaling #NetSky #ComplexSystems 🧪
Reposted by Miguel Selas
Reasoning AI models require training on human reasoning. One of the real gaps in pushing forward these models is going to be the old problem of how to figure out how to get experts to explain what they do.
AI keeps bumping up against our limited knowledge of how expertise works
AI keeps bumping up against our limited knowledge of how expertise works
December 28, 2024 at 8:19 PM
Reasoning AI models require training on human reasoning. One of the real gaps in pushing forward these models is going to be the old problem of how to figure out how to get experts to explain what they do.
AI keeps bumping up against our limited knowledge of how expertise works
AI keeps bumping up against our limited knowledge of how expertise works
Reposted by Miguel Selas
couple notes from a Jason Hickel thread from over on Twitter:
November 25, 2024 at 8:12 PM
couple notes from a Jason Hickel thread from over on Twitter:
Reposted by Miguel Selas
During most of the vast history of humanity, technologies have evolved gradually, not through leaps of genius, but slow cultural adaption.
Before the scientific method, easy communication & printed books, innovation happened at the level of societies, not people. www2.psych.ubc.ca/~henrich/pdf...
Before the scientific method, easy communication & printed books, innovation happened at the level of societies, not people. www2.psych.ubc.ca/~henrich/pdf...
November 25, 2024 at 9:19 PM
During most of the vast history of humanity, technologies have evolved gradually, not through leaps of genius, but slow cultural adaption.
Before the scientific method, easy communication & printed books, innovation happened at the level of societies, not people. www2.psych.ubc.ca/~henrich/pdf...
Before the scientific method, easy communication & printed books, innovation happened at the level of societies, not people. www2.psych.ubc.ca/~henrich/pdf...
Reposted by Miguel Selas
"Earth Intelligence Engine" combines a physics-based model with generative AI to create realistic, simulated satellite imagery from the future. These images can help users see what their region might look like after a hurricane or other flooding event. news.mit.edu/2024/new-ai-...
New AI tool generates realistic satellite images of future flooding
With help from AI, MIT scientists developed a method that generates satellite imagery from the future to depict how a region would look after a potential flooding event.
news.mit.edu
November 25, 2024 at 9:21 PM
"Earth Intelligence Engine" combines a physics-based model with generative AI to create realistic, simulated satellite imagery from the future. These images can help users see what their region might look like after a hurricane or other flooding event. news.mit.edu/2024/new-ai-...
Reposted by Miguel Selas
Mikhail Zygar explains why Trump's victory is being celebrated in Moscow. Not just because of a change in Ukraine policy, but because "to many in the Kremlin, a Trump presidency might bring about the collapse of the American state"
www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/o...
www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/o...
Opinion | What Is Trump to Putin? A Harbinger of America’s Collapse.
To the Kremlin, the president-elect is a harbinger of American collapse.
www.nytimes.com
November 19, 2024 at 12:43 PM
Mikhail Zygar explains why Trump's victory is being celebrated in Moscow. Not just because of a change in Ukraine policy, but because "to many in the Kremlin, a Trump presidency might bring about the collapse of the American state"
www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/o...
www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/o...
Reposted by Miguel Selas
18M + 1.
💙, Mar🐫
💙, Mar🐫
November 17, 2024 at 2:58 AM
18M + 1.
💙, Mar🐫
💙, Mar🐫
Reposted by Miguel Selas
We’re going to hear lots of stories about which people, policies and rhetoric are to blame for the Democrats’ defeat.
Some of those stories may even be true!
But an underrated factor is that 2024 was an absolutely horrendous year for incumbents around the world 👇 
Some of those stories may even be true!
But an underrated factor is that 2024 was an absolutely horrendous year for incumbents around the world 👇 
November 7, 2024 at 11:33 AM
We’re going to hear lots of stories about which people, policies and rhetoric are to blame for the Democrats’ defeat.
Some of those stories may even be true!
But an underrated factor is that 2024 was an absolutely horrendous year for incumbents around the world 👇 
Some of those stories may even be true!
But an underrated factor is that 2024 was an absolutely horrendous year for incumbents around the world 👇 
Reposted by Miguel Selas
Just incredible news on reviving Voyager I.
Think of it: a computer chip 15 billion(!) miles away is broken. The solution is to repackage & move key software, w/ code sent via radio signal that takes 22+ hrs to reach that little 46yr old machine.
AND IT IS WORKING.
blogs.nasa.gov/voyager/2024...
Think of it: a computer chip 15 billion(!) miles away is broken. The solution is to repackage & move key software, w/ code sent via radio signal that takes 22+ hrs to reach that little 46yr old machine.
AND IT IS WORKING.
blogs.nasa.gov/voyager/2024...
NASA’s Voyager 1 Resumes Sending Engineering Updates to Earth – Voyager
blogs.nasa.gov
April 23, 2024 at 12:59 AM
Just incredible news on reviving Voyager I.
Think of it: a computer chip 15 billion(!) miles away is broken. The solution is to repackage & move key software, w/ code sent via radio signal that takes 22+ hrs to reach that little 46yr old machine.
AND IT IS WORKING.
blogs.nasa.gov/voyager/2024...
Think of it: a computer chip 15 billion(!) miles away is broken. The solution is to repackage & move key software, w/ code sent via radio signal that takes 22+ hrs to reach that little 46yr old machine.
AND IT IS WORKING.
blogs.nasa.gov/voyager/2024...