@miguelmoravec.bsky.social
I'll definitely be citing this work going forward.
Also interesting but with a slightly lower R2 (explanatory usefulness) value is this plot of VMT per capita vs GDP per capita.
Also interesting but with a slightly lower R2 (explanatory usefulness) value is this plot of VMT per capita vs GDP per capita.
June 23, 2025 at 8:57 PM
I'll definitely be citing this work going forward.
Also interesting but with a slightly lower R2 (explanatory usefulness) value is this plot of VMT per capita vs GDP per capita.
Also interesting but with a slightly lower R2 (explanatory usefulness) value is this plot of VMT per capita vs GDP per capita.
State economic productivity DECLINES when you choke metro areas with highways!
Check out this plot of 1) urban lane miles per capita vs. 2) state GDP per capita
From @toddlitman.bsky.social and his team at VTPI
Check out this plot of 1) urban lane miles per capita vs. 2) state GDP per capita
From @toddlitman.bsky.social and his team at VTPI
June 23, 2025 at 8:57 PM
State economic productivity DECLINES when you choke metro areas with highways!
Check out this plot of 1) urban lane miles per capita vs. 2) state GDP per capita
From @toddlitman.bsky.social and his team at VTPI
Check out this plot of 1) urban lane miles per capita vs. 2) state GDP per capita
From @toddlitman.bsky.social and his team at VTPI
Carbrain survey alert: the MWCOG survey won’t let me enter that my household has 0 vehicles - potentially stuffing the ballot box for more car infrastructure when I really moved to DC for the mass transit 🚆 🚎 🚴♂️
@cmcharlesallen.bsky.social
@nharris.bsky.social yall should toss this data point
@cmcharlesallen.bsky.social
@nharris.bsky.social yall should toss this data point
March 31, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Carbrain survey alert: the MWCOG survey won’t let me enter that my household has 0 vehicles - potentially stuffing the ballot box for more car infrastructure when I really moved to DC for the mass transit 🚆 🚎 🚴♂️
@cmcharlesallen.bsky.social
@nharris.bsky.social yall should toss this data point
@cmcharlesallen.bsky.social
@nharris.bsky.social yall should toss this data point
Extra extra: Check out our new fleet TCO analysis -
EV vs ICE!
Common fleet applications!
Charger costs included!
By the venerable @hthonet @drewveysey
https://rmi.org/businesses-and-local-governments-its-never-been-a-better-time-to-electrify-your-vehicle-fleet/
EV vs ICE!
Common fleet applications!
Charger costs included!
By the venerable @hthonet @drewveysey
https://rmi.org/businesses-and-local-governments-its-never-been-a-better-time-to-electrify-your-vehicle-fleet/
November 16, 2024 at 8:54 AM
Extra extra: Check out our new fleet TCO analysis -
EV vs ICE!
Common fleet applications!
Charger costs included!
By the venerable @hthonet @drewveysey
https://rmi.org/businesses-and-local-governments-its-never-been-a-better-time-to-electrify-your-vehicle-fleet/
EV vs ICE!
Common fleet applications!
Charger costs included!
By the venerable @hthonet @drewveysey
https://rmi.org/businesses-and-local-governments-its-never-been-a-better-time-to-electrify-your-vehicle-fleet/
Disclaimer: today's live tweets were sent while traveling for an urbanism conference in Italy, so I blame any omissions on the complimentary event spritz
November 16, 2024 at 1:24 PM
Disclaimer: today's live tweets were sent while traveling for an urbanism conference in Italy, so I blame any omissions on the complimentary event spritz
Anyone in the biz could tell you @MnDOT is lowballing the BAU forecast with that 2020 trend line
Why? Per @USCBO, national VMT (and thus pollution) rebounded almost immediately to pre-demic levels in 2021
Folks who've driven in the 3 yrs since know that traffic has only grown..
Why? Per @USCBO, national VMT (and thus pollution) rebounded almost immediately to pre-demic levels in 2021
Folks who've driven in the 3 yrs since know that traffic has only grown..
November 16, 2024 at 12:57 PM
Anyone in the biz could tell you @MnDOT is lowballing the BAU forecast with that 2020 trend line
Why? Per @USCBO, national VMT (and thus pollution) rebounded almost immediately to pre-demic levels in 2021
Folks who've driven in the 3 yrs since know that traffic has only grown..
Why? Per @USCBO, national VMT (and thus pollution) rebounded almost immediately to pre-demic levels in 2021
Folks who've driven in the 3 yrs since know that traffic has only grown..
BONUS RANT: This GRAPH that MnDOT presented
Spot the bizarr-o assumption!
Spot the bizarr-o assumption!
November 16, 2024 at 12:49 PM
BONUS RANT: This GRAPH that MnDOT presented
Spot the bizarr-o assumption!
Spot the bizarr-o assumption!
This conversation was informed by some awesome sensitivity analysis from @ICF comparing TDFM's and SHIFT in real world settings, leading them to the conclusion to recommend SHIFT adherence in all urban settings.
November 16, 2024 at 12:32 PM
This conversation was informed by some awesome sensitivity analysis from @ICF comparing TDFM's and SHIFT in real world settings, leading them to the conclusion to recommend SHIFT adherence in all urban settings.
TAC members - if you're listening - please consider requiring forecast validation with SHIFT as a firm part of the analysis process!
Its right and its free! It doesn't get any better than that.
Its right and its free! It doesn't get any better than that.
November 16, 2024 at 12:23 PM
TAC members - if you're listening - please consider requiring forecast validation with SHIFT as a firm part of the analysis process!
Its right and its free! It doesn't get any better than that.
Its right and its free! It doesn't get any better than that.
As an @RockyMtnInst analyst, I can tell you that the SHIFT very robustly captures new tailpipe pollution from expansion based on real observed outcomes.
Requiring forecasts to be even somewhat near SHIFT entirely blows up the junk idea that expansions can decrease GHG
Requiring forecasts to be even somewhat near SHIFT entirely blows up the junk idea that expansions can decrease GHG
November 16, 2024 at 12:14 PM
As an @RockyMtnInst analyst, I can tell you that the SHIFT very robustly captures new tailpipe pollution from expansion based on real observed outcomes.
Requiring forecasts to be even somewhat near SHIFT entirely blows up the junk idea that expansions can decrease GHG
Requiring forecasts to be even somewhat near SHIFT entirely blows up the junk idea that expansions can decrease GHG
Fortunately, @ICF had this flow chart of how MnDOT would like to handle modeling to better address junk input.
Most welcomely, the slides suggested comparing TFDM results to @RockyMtnInst's peer-reviewed SHIFT Calculator to see if forecasts are "reasonable"
This is HUGE!!!!
Most welcomely, the slides suggested comparing TFDM results to @RockyMtnInst's peer-reviewed SHIFT Calculator to see if forecasts are "reasonable"
This is HUGE!!!!
November 16, 2024 at 12:05 PM
Fortunately, @ICF had this flow chart of how MnDOT would like to handle modeling to better address junk input.
Most welcomely, the slides suggested comparing TFDM results to @RockyMtnInst's peer-reviewed SHIFT Calculator to see if forecasts are "reasonable"
This is HUGE!!!!
Most welcomely, the slides suggested comparing TFDM results to @RockyMtnInst's peer-reviewed SHIFT Calculator to see if forecasts are "reasonable"
This is HUGE!!!!
TAC members have until the end of the month to make comments on the procedure, which will go into effect Feb. 1, 2025.
Yes - that timeline would mean that the proposed I-94 expansions would need to offset VMT/GHG ($$$) - good question from @AlexT_Burns
Yes - that timeline would mean that the proposed I-94 expansions would need to offset VMT/GHG ($$$) - good question from @AlexT_Burns
November 16, 2024 at 9:40 AM
TAC members have until the end of the month to make comments on the procedure, which will go into effect Feb. 1, 2025.
Yes - that timeline would mean that the proposed I-94 expansions would need to offset VMT/GHG ($$$) - good question from @AlexT_Burns
Yes - that timeline would mean that the proposed I-94 expansions would need to offset VMT/GHG ($$$) - good question from @AlexT_Burns
Weaker states have tried to kick that kind of analysis to later in the game (i.e. NEPA review) by which point projects are largely unstoppable.
Fortunately, Minnesota lawmakers wrote explicit pre-STIP assessment requirements into the text of the law (HF 2887 / HF 5242)
Fortunately, Minnesota lawmakers wrote explicit pre-STIP assessment requirements into the text of the law (HF 2887 / HF 5242)
November 16, 2024 at 9:33 AM
Weaker states have tried to kick that kind of analysis to later in the game (i.e. NEPA review) by which point projects are largely unstoppable.
Fortunately, Minnesota lawmakers wrote explicit pre-STIP assessment requirements into the text of the law (HF 2887 / HF 5242)
Fortunately, Minnesota lawmakers wrote explicit pre-STIP assessment requirements into the text of the law (HF 2887 / HF 5242)
On topic 1) @MnDOT is making moves!
They've drafted an 18 page procedure to make sure that projects are checked early and often for VMT/GHG impacts.
I actually found this to be quite robust - as projects must account for pollution impacts both pre-STIP and post final design
They've drafted an 18 page procedure to make sure that projects are checked early and often for VMT/GHG impacts.
I actually found this to be quite robust - as projects must account for pollution impacts both pre-STIP and post final design
November 16, 2024 at 9:25 AM
On topic 1) @MnDOT is making moves!
They've drafted an 18 page procedure to make sure that projects are checked early and often for VMT/GHG impacts.
I actually found this to be quite robust - as projects must account for pollution impacts both pre-STIP and post final design
They've drafted an 18 page procedure to make sure that projects are checked early and often for VMT/GHG impacts.
I actually found this to be quite robust - as projects must account for pollution impacts both pre-STIP and post final design
Live tweeting the second ever @MnDOT technical advisory committee (TAC) on transport climate pollution.
VMT nerds and I-94 rethinkers - come thru! 🧵
VMT nerds and I-94 rethinkers - come thru! 🧵
November 16, 2024 at 8:54 AM
Live tweeting the second ever @MnDOT technical advisory committee (TAC) on transport climate pollution.
VMT nerds and I-94 rethinkers - come thru! 🧵
VMT nerds and I-94 rethinkers - come thru! 🧵
This example from the MICE user guide is textbook "just one more lane bro" junk science used to justify endless capacity expansion.
Taken to an extreme, its how you end up with 12 lane parking lots a la L.A.
Taken to an extreme, its how you end up with 12 lane parking lots a la L.A.
November 16, 2024 at 11:50 AM
This example from the MICE user guide is textbook "just one more lane bro" junk science used to justify endless capacity expansion.
Taken to an extreme, its how you end up with 12 lane parking lots a la L.A.
Taken to an extreme, its how you end up with 12 lane parking lots a la L.A.
That being said, its unclear how well MICE handles induced demand.
The current user guide teaches you how to bait & switch the emissions score.
Just claim that traffic will double & grind to halt, and suddenly roadway expansion reduces GHG compared to a no build.
The current user guide teaches you how to bait & switch the emissions score.
Just claim that traffic will double & grind to halt, and suddenly roadway expansion reduces GHG compared to a no build.
November 16, 2024 at 11:41 AM
That being said, its unclear how well MICE handles induced demand.
The current user guide teaches you how to bait & switch the emissions score.
Just claim that traffic will double & grind to halt, and suddenly roadway expansion reduces GHG compared to a no build.
The current user guide teaches you how to bait & switch the emissions score.
Just claim that traffic will double & grind to halt, and suddenly roadway expansion reduces GHG compared to a no build.
Yall, @MnDOT did their homework & pulled up a slide of elasticity values (!)
I can't understate how big it is for a DOT to even loosely acknowledge the fact that traffic ~elastically~ expands to fill new lane miles once built
Values closer to 1 represent that reality in modeling
I can't understate how big it is for a DOT to even loosely acknowledge the fact that traffic ~elastically~ expands to fill new lane miles once built
Values closer to 1 represent that reality in modeling
November 16, 2024 at 11:34 AM
Yall, @MnDOT did their homework & pulled up a slide of elasticity values (!)
I can't understate how big it is for a DOT to even loosely acknowledge the fact that traffic ~elastically~ expands to fill new lane miles once built
Values closer to 1 represent that reality in modeling
I can't understate how big it is for a DOT to even loosely acknowledge the fact that traffic ~elastically~ expands to fill new lane miles once built
Values closer to 1 represent that reality in modeling
The mother-lode of charts!
@MnDOT proposes the following framework to assess the VMT and GHG impacts of projects as they move along planning stages (and become an indominable snowball of funding momentum)
Can you spot what I quickly raised my hand to discuss?
@MnDOT proposes the following framework to assess the VMT and GHG impacts of projects as they move along planning stages (and become an indominable snowball of funding momentum)
Can you spot what I quickly raised my hand to discuss?
November 16, 2024 at 11:18 AM
The mother-lode of charts!
@MnDOT proposes the following framework to assess the VMT and GHG impacts of projects as they move along planning stages (and become an indominable snowball of funding momentum)
Can you spot what I quickly raised my hand to discuss?
@MnDOT proposes the following framework to assess the VMT and GHG impacts of projects as they move along planning stages (and become an indominable snowball of funding momentum)
Can you spot what I quickly raised my hand to discuss?
Another voice reiterated the need for easy to understand formulas to mitigate induced pollution from projects.
@ColoradoDOT developed a policy directive that allows planners to quickly "score" transport projects in terms of GHG...
@ColoradoDOT developed a policy directive that allows planners to quickly "score" transport projects in terms of GHG...
November 16, 2024 at 10:54 AM
Another voice reiterated the need for easy to understand formulas to mitigate induced pollution from projects.
@ColoradoDOT developed a policy directive that allows planners to quickly "score" transport projects in terms of GHG...
@ColoradoDOT developed a policy directive that allows planners to quickly "score" transport projects in terms of GHG...
Dr. Robert Nolan from @VTC_Rutgers pointed out that parking is one key land use lever that @MnDOT can pull to reduce induced traffic.
@henrygrabar's "Paved Paradise" brilliantly describes what a big role parking plays in determining how folks get around
@henrygrabar's "Paved Paradise" brilliantly describes what a big role parking plays in determining how folks get around
November 16, 2024 at 10:46 AM
Dr. Robert Nolan from @VTC_Rutgers pointed out that parking is one key land use lever that @MnDOT can pull to reduce induced traffic.
@henrygrabar's "Paved Paradise" brilliantly describes what a big role parking plays in determining how folks get around
@henrygrabar's "Paved Paradise" brilliantly describes what a big role parking plays in determining how folks get around
After summarizing the legislative mandate / history for this committee, the conversation has quickly turned to target setting
The stakes are high - targets need to be finalized by February and projects in the pipeline now may be dramatically affected
The stakes are high - targets need to be finalized by February and projects in the pipeline now may be dramatically affected
November 16, 2024 at 10:31 AM
After summarizing the legislative mandate / history for this committee, the conversation has quickly turned to target setting
The stakes are high - targets need to be finalized by February and projects in the pipeline now may be dramatically affected
The stakes are high - targets need to be finalized by February and projects in the pipeline now may be dramatically affected
Going to live tweet the inaugural @MnDOT "TAC" meeting as the North Star state implements its nation leading clean transportation law!
VMT & mode shift wonks - this thread is for...
VMT & mode shift wonks - this thread is for...
November 16, 2024 at 9:40 AM
Going to live tweet the inaugural @MnDOT "TAC" meeting as the North Star state implements its nation leading clean transportation law!
VMT & mode shift wonks - this thread is for...
VMT & mode shift wonks - this thread is for...
So don't take it from - take it from the progressive former MN House Transportation Chair Frank Hornstein:
@GovTimWalz is "far and away the best [MN] governor in two decades on climate and transportation"
@GovTimWalz is "far and away the best [MN] governor in two decades on climate and transportation"
November 16, 2024 at 12:49 PM
So don't take it from - take it from the progressive former MN House Transportation Chair Frank Hornstein:
@GovTimWalz is "far and away the best [MN] governor in two decades on climate and transportation"
@GovTimWalz is "far and away the best [MN] governor in two decades on climate and transportation"
It's true, Walz is not out front on the issue in the same way @GovofCO is -
Polis is championing the GHG investment strategy from Twitter to today's @drvolts podcast.
But to be fair, Polis really only became vocal on the topic after @nytimes featured it on their front page
Polis is championing the GHG investment strategy from Twitter to today's @drvolts podcast.
But to be fair, Polis really only became vocal on the topic after @nytimes featured it on their front page
November 16, 2024 at 12:40 PM
It's true, Walz is not out front on the issue in the same way @GovofCO is -
Polis is championing the GHG investment strategy from Twitter to today's @drvolts podcast.
But to be fair, Polis really only became vocal on the topic after @nytimes featured it on their front page
Polis is championing the GHG investment strategy from Twitter to today's @drvolts podcast.
But to be fair, Polis really only became vocal on the topic after @nytimes featured it on their front page