I think of Taleb's viewpoints as "probabilistic stoicism": accept the randomness and unpredictability in the world, build a system and accept consequences to maximize expected success, however you define it. (6/6)

Skin in the Game emphasizes the necessity of personal exposure to the consequences of risk. By facing an 'absorbing barrier' (potential ruin), individuals are forced into more robust behavior, allowing the system to eliminate the fragile over time and improve. (5/6)

Antifragile explores how systems respond to randomness. An antifragile entity exhibits a convex response, meaning it benefits from higher volatility (Jensen's Inequality). Example: buffers, good selection criteria.... (4/6)

The Black Swan highlights rare yet extremely impactful events. It argues the world isn't governed by 'Mediocristan' (compact Gaussian distributions), but by 'Extremistan' with fat tails – assuming we can even characterize the distribution. (3/6)

Fooled by Randomness states that a string of successes is likely due to chance, especially when some selection is involved. Randomness produces patterns, and our brains are wired to detect those. (2/6)

Akkoord, behalve met het zout!

Hoe kan je zo'n interval zelfs interpreteren? Frequentistisch totaal onbetrouwbaar, Bayesiaans enkel via "gegeven alle veronderstellingen".

And with a Julia package 💜

You can (an many people obviously did) go much farther than my example. I have been thinking about Von Neumann boundary conditions (CST fluxes), though not entirely clear.

Then I'll wait a bit with transferring.

Super nice! Generative art is so much nicer than GenAI!

This looks super interesting! I've been looking for ages to find a clear reference that explains the relation between water potential and growth!