Michael Dubner
@michaeldubner.bsky.social
Featured Fantasy Football Analyst @RotoViz
Contributor at @LegendaryUpside
Best Ball Exposures Tracker https://bit.ly/best_ball_exposures_tracker_2025_free
Contributor at @LegendaryUpside
Best Ball Exposures Tracker https://bit.ly/best_ball_exposures_tracker_2025_free
Tracking contest selection needs to be paired with proper exposure tracking.
My Best Ball Exposures Tracker lets you monitor:
🔹Bankroll Management
🔹 Contest Selection
🔹 Player Exposures
🔹 Roster Constructions
🔹 Stack Analysis
All in one place.
bsky.app/profile/mich...
My Best Ball Exposures Tracker lets you monitor:
🔹Bankroll Management
🔹 Contest Selection
🔹 Player Exposures
🔹 Roster Constructions
🔹 Stack Analysis
All in one place.
bsky.app/profile/mich...
🏈 2025 Best Ball Exposures Tracker 🏈
✅ Player exposures 📊
✅ Roster constructions 🔢
✅ Stacks & Week 📅 correlation
✅ The ONLY tracker that analyzes your results 🏆
✅ Works across ALL platforms (UD, DK, Drafters, FFPC)
⬇️ Download ⬇️
bit.ly/best_ball_ex...
✅ Player exposures 📊
✅ Roster constructions 🔢
✅ Stacks & Week 📅 correlation
✅ The ONLY tracker that analyzes your results 🏆
✅ Works across ALL platforms (UD, DK, Drafters, FFPC)
⬇️ Download ⬇️
bit.ly/best_ball_ex...
March 17, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Tracking contest selection needs to be paired with proper exposure tracking.
My Best Ball Exposures Tracker lets you monitor:
🔹Bankroll Management
🔹 Contest Selection
🔹 Player Exposures
🔹 Roster Constructions
🔹 Stack Analysis
All in one place.
bsky.app/profile/mich...
My Best Ball Exposures Tracker lets you monitor:
🔹Bankroll Management
🔹 Contest Selection
🔹 Player Exposures
🔹 Roster Constructions
🔹 Stack Analysis
All in one place.
bsky.app/profile/mich...
💰 Opportunity Cost
When selecting contests, don’t just focus on the highest contest score. Also consider max entry cost relative to overall bankroll.
Despite a low contest score (31), The Little Board was just a $150 investment, making it worth it to build in volume.
When selecting contests, don’t just focus on the highest contest score. Also consider max entry cost relative to overall bankroll.
Despite a low contest score (31), The Little Board was just a $150 investment, making it worth it to build in volume.
March 17, 2025 at 5:28 PM
💰 Opportunity Cost
When selecting contests, don’t just focus on the highest contest score. Also consider max entry cost relative to overall bankroll.
Despite a low contest score (31), The Little Board was just a $150 investment, making it worth it to build in volume.
When selecting contests, don’t just focus on the highest contest score. Also consider max entry cost relative to overall bankroll.
Despite a low contest score (31), The Little Board was just a $150 investment, making it worth it to build in volume.
🧠 Think in TIERS, not absolute scores:
80-100: Excellent ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
60-80: Good ⭐⭐⭐⭐
40-60: Average ⭐⭐⭐
<40: Poor ⭐⭐
Focus on which tier you're playing in, not whether a contest scores 72 vs. 75.
80-100: Excellent ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
60-80: Good ⭐⭐⭐⭐
40-60: Average ⭐⭐⭐
<40: Poor ⭐⭐
Focus on which tier you're playing in, not whether a contest scores 72 vs. 75.
March 17, 2025 at 5:28 PM
🧠 Think in TIERS, not absolute scores:
80-100: Excellent ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
60-80: Good ⭐⭐⭐⭐
40-60: Average ⭐⭐⭐
<40: Poor ⭐⭐
Focus on which tier you're playing in, not whether a contest scores 72 vs. 75.
80-100: Excellent ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
60-80: Good ⭐⭐⭐⭐
40-60: Average ⭐⭐⭐
<40: Poor ⭐⭐
Focus on which tier you're playing in, not whether a contest scores 72 vs. 75.
The DraftKings $1 20-Max: A hidden gem 💎
Contest score: 82/100 (Elite tier)
Rake: Only 9.1% (unheard of for $1 contests)
Max-entry fee: $20
The best low-stakes tournament I've ever seen.
Contest score: 82/100 (Elite tier)
Rake: Only 9.1% (unheard of for $1 contests)
Max-entry fee: $20
The best low-stakes tournament I've ever seen.
March 17, 2025 at 5:28 PM
The DraftKings $1 20-Max: A hidden gem 💎
Contest score: 82/100 (Elite tier)
Rake: Only 9.1% (unheard of for $1 contests)
Max-entry fee: $20
The best low-stakes tournament I've ever seen.
Contest score: 82/100 (Elite tier)
Rake: Only 9.1% (unheard of for $1 contests)
Max-entry fee: $20
The best low-stakes tournament I've ever seen.
The PERFECT Contest 💯
DraftKings $33 Single Entry
Only 12.3% rake
20% of prize pool to 1st
Finals min cash = 31x entry-fee
Playoff advance rates: 2/12 → 2/12 → 2/8 → 6-person final
The one downside? You only get one bullet.
DraftKings $33 Single Entry
Only 12.3% rake
20% of prize pool to 1st
Finals min cash = 31x entry-fee
Playoff advance rates: 2/12 → 2/12 → 2/8 → 6-person final
The one downside? You only get one bullet.
March 17, 2025 at 5:28 PM
The PERFECT Contest 💯
DraftKings $33 Single Entry
Only 12.3% rake
20% of prize pool to 1st
Finals min cash = 31x entry-fee
Playoff advance rates: 2/12 → 2/12 → 2/8 → 6-person final
The one downside? You only get one bullet.
DraftKings $33 Single Entry
Only 12.3% rake
20% of prize pool to 1st
Finals min cash = 31x entry-fee
Playoff advance rates: 2/12 → 2/12 → 2/8 → 6-person final
The one downside? You only get one bullet.
Here’s the problem with the Flagship tournaments:
They have some of the WORST contest scores.
Sites use eye-catching 1st place prizes to bait you while tanking the overall tournament structure.
They have some of the WORST contest scores.
Sites use eye-catching 1st place prizes to bait you while tanking the overall tournament structure.
March 17, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Here’s the problem with the Flagship tournaments:
They have some of the WORST contest scores.
Sites use eye-catching 1st place prizes to bait you while tanking the overall tournament structure.
They have some of the WORST contest scores.
Sites use eye-catching 1st place prizes to bait you while tanking the overall tournament structure.
Underdog’s The Big Board contest score: 4️⃣1️⃣
The Biggest Board: 8️⃣0️⃣
What explains the difference?
🔸Lower rake: 7.4% vs 10.4%
🔸 Better prize distributions: 10th-to-1st ratio (10% vs 2.8%), Finals Min Cash-to-Max Entry (150% vs 50%)
🔸 More favorable playoff advance rates
The Biggest Board: 8️⃣0️⃣
What explains the difference?
🔸Lower rake: 7.4% vs 10.4%
🔸 Better prize distributions: 10th-to-1st ratio (10% vs 2.8%), Finals Min Cash-to-Max Entry (150% vs 50%)
🔸 More favorable playoff advance rates
March 17, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Underdog’s The Big Board contest score: 4️⃣1️⃣
The Biggest Board: 8️⃣0️⃣
What explains the difference?
🔸Lower rake: 7.4% vs 10.4%
🔸 Better prize distributions: 10th-to-1st ratio (10% vs 2.8%), Finals Min Cash-to-Max Entry (150% vs 50%)
🔸 More favorable playoff advance rates
The Biggest Board: 8️⃣0️⃣
What explains the difference?
🔸Lower rake: 7.4% vs 10.4%
🔸 Better prize distributions: 10th-to-1st ratio (10% vs 2.8%), Finals Min Cash-to-Max Entry (150% vs 50%)
🔸 More favorable playoff advance rates
Finals minimum cash prize: Keeping your bankroll alive
While we all chase the life-changing 1st place money, a Finals min-cash that covers your max entry cost is crucial for longevity. It's what keeps you in the game long enough to eventually hit that big score.
While we all chase the life-changing 1st place money, a Finals min-cash that covers your max entry cost is crucial for longevity. It's what keeps you in the game long enough to eventually hit that big score.
March 17, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Finals minimum cash prize: Keeping your bankroll alive
While we all chase the life-changing 1st place money, a Finals min-cash that covers your max entry cost is crucial for longevity. It's what keeps you in the game long enough to eventually hit that big score.
While we all chase the life-changing 1st place money, a Finals min-cash that covers your max entry cost is crucial for longevity. It's what keeps you in the game long enough to eventually hit that big score.
What makes a Best Ball contest good?
My Contest Score incorporates:
✓ Rake percentage
✓ Prize distribution (% to 1st, 10th-to-1st ratio)
✓ Finals minimum cash prize relative to max-entry fee
✓ Playoff advance rates
My Contest Score incorporates:
✓ Rake percentage
✓ Prize distribution (% to 1st, 10th-to-1st ratio)
✓ Finals minimum cash prize relative to max-entry fee
✓ Playoff advance rates
March 17, 2025 at 5:27 PM
What makes a Best Ball contest good?
My Contest Score incorporates:
✓ Rake percentage
✓ Prize distribution (% to 1st, 10th-to-1st ratio)
✓ Finals minimum cash prize relative to max-entry fee
✓ Playoff advance rates
My Contest Score incorporates:
✓ Rake percentage
✓ Prize distribution (% to 1st, 10th-to-1st ratio)
✓ Finals minimum cash prize relative to max-entry fee
✓ Playoff advance rates
The secret to best ball: Before drafting a single player, your ROI is impacted by which contests you enter.
With more contests than you could possibly enter, you must decide which to play and which to skip.
Smart players select contests with structures matching their skill set.
With more contests than you could possibly enter, you must decide which to play and which to skip.
Smart players select contests with structures matching their skill set.
March 17, 2025 at 5:26 PM
The secret to best ball: Before drafting a single player, your ROI is impacted by which contests you enter.
With more contests than you could possibly enter, you must decide which to play and which to skip.
Smart players select contests with structures matching their skill set.
With more contests than you could possibly enter, you must decide which to play and which to skip.
Smart players select contests with structures matching their skill set.
Rake has a MUCH larger impact on your long-term ROI than you realize.
Lowering a contest's rake from 10% to 7.5% more than DOUBLES the number of profitable players.
t.co/TXMEyz40No
Lowering a contest's rake from 10% to 7.5% more than DOUBLES the number of profitable players.
t.co/TXMEyz40No
March 17, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Rake has a MUCH larger impact on your long-term ROI than you realize.
Lowering a contest's rake from 10% to 7.5% more than DOUBLES the number of profitable players.
t.co/TXMEyz40No
Lowering a contest's rake from 10% to 7.5% more than DOUBLES the number of profitable players.
t.co/TXMEyz40No
Why does contest selection matter? 🤔
→ Lower rake = higher ROI
→ Better prize structures = more ways to win
→ Fair advance rate odds = better chance of actually realizing your edge
Your ROI heavily depends on game selection
→ Lower rake = higher ROI
→ Better prize structures = more ways to win
→ Fair advance rate odds = better chance of actually realizing your edge
Your ROI heavily depends on game selection
March 17, 2025 at 5:25 PM
Why does contest selection matter? 🤔
→ Lower rake = higher ROI
→ Better prize structures = more ways to win
→ Fair advance rate odds = better chance of actually realizing your edge
Your ROI heavily depends on game selection
→ Lower rake = higher ROI
→ Better prize structures = more ways to win
→ Fair advance rate odds = better chance of actually realizing your edge
Your ROI heavily depends on game selection
Your Best Ball game selection is probably costing you money 💸
Not all tournaments are created equal.
I've graded every best ball tournament and found some shocking disparities. Some popular contests are traps while others are gold mines hiding in plain sight.
Not all tournaments are created equal.
I've graded every best ball tournament and found some shocking disparities. Some popular contests are traps while others are gold mines hiding in plain sight.
March 17, 2025 at 5:25 PM
Your Best Ball game selection is probably costing you money 💸
Not all tournaments are created equal.
I've graded every best ball tournament and found some shocking disparities. Some popular contests are traps while others are gold mines hiding in plain sight.
Not all tournaments are created equal.
I've graded every best ball tournament and found some shocking disparities. Some popular contests are traps while others are gold mines hiding in plain sight.
After 1,000+ drafts, I learned:
📈 Tracking = Better portfolio and bankroll decisions
🚫 Guessing = Spot leaks in your portfolio and correct them
⬇️ Download the tool that helped me manage smarter
t.co/ogOTQ7aiwj
📈 Tracking = Better portfolio and bankroll decisions
🚫 Guessing = Spot leaks in your portfolio and correct them
⬇️ Download the tool that helped me manage smarter
t.co/ogOTQ7aiwj
https://bit.ly/best_ball_exposures_tracker_2025_free
t.co
March 6, 2025 at 4:16 PM
After 1,000+ drafts, I learned:
📈 Tracking = Better portfolio and bankroll decisions
🚫 Guessing = Spot leaks in your portfolio and correct them
⬇️ Download the tool that helped me manage smarter
t.co/ogOTQ7aiwj
📈 Tracking = Better portfolio and bankroll decisions
🚫 Guessing = Spot leaks in your portfolio and correct them
⬇️ Download the tool that helped me manage smarter
t.co/ogOTQ7aiwj
Analyze Your Results 🏆
Did your draft strategy actually pay off?
🏅Advance Rates
🏅Net Profit
🏅Results split out by: fantasy platform, tournament, draft month, draft pick, and more.
Did your draft strategy actually pay off?
🏅Advance Rates
🏅Net Profit
🏅Results split out by: fantasy platform, tournament, draft month, draft pick, and more.
March 6, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Analyze Your Results 🏆
Did your draft strategy actually pay off?
🏅Advance Rates
🏅Net Profit
🏅Results split out by: fantasy platform, tournament, draft month, draft pick, and more.
Did your draft strategy actually pay off?
🏅Advance Rates
🏅Net Profit
🏅Results split out by: fantasy platform, tournament, draft month, draft pick, and more.
Roster Finder 🔍
Easily find teams by any parameter!
✅ Jalen Hurts - Saquon Barkley stack
✅ Drafted in the Pre-NFL Draft tournaments
✅ Picked from the 1.01 or 1.02
Easily find teams by any parameter!
✅ Jalen Hurts - Saquon Barkley stack
✅ Drafted in the Pre-NFL Draft tournaments
✅ Picked from the 1.01 or 1.02
March 6, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Roster Finder 🔍
Easily find teams by any parameter!
✅ Jalen Hurts - Saquon Barkley stack
✅ Drafted in the Pre-NFL Draft tournaments
✅ Picked from the 1.01 or 1.02
Easily find teams by any parameter!
✅ Jalen Hurts - Saquon Barkley stack
✅ Drafted in the Pre-NFL Draft tournaments
✅ Picked from the 1.01 or 1.02
Enhanced Roster Overview 📊
Easily identify
1️⃣Stacks and correlation
2️⃣Roster constructions
3️⃣ADP Value
Easily identify
1️⃣Stacks and correlation
2️⃣Roster constructions
3️⃣ADP Value
March 6, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Enhanced Roster Overview 📊
Easily identify
1️⃣Stacks and correlation
2️⃣Roster constructions
3️⃣ADP Value
Easily identify
1️⃣Stacks and correlation
2️⃣Roster constructions
3️⃣ADP Value
🐕Value Hound 🐕
ADP closing line value is one of the best predictors of a winning roster:
🔸 Efficient market hypothesis
🔸 Get ahead of ADP risers
🔸 Uniqueness with rare player combos
🔸 Humility: Best way to get exposure to overvalued players in your portfolio
ADP closing line value is one of the best predictors of a winning roster:
🔸 Efficient market hypothesis
🔸 Get ahead of ADP risers
🔸 Uniqueness with rare player combos
🔸 Humility: Best way to get exposure to overvalued players in your portfolio
March 6, 2025 at 4:14 PM
🐕Value Hound 🐕
ADP closing line value is one of the best predictors of a winning roster:
🔸 Efficient market hypothesis
🔸 Get ahead of ADP risers
🔸 Uniqueness with rare player combos
🔸 Humility: Best way to get exposure to overvalued players in your portfolio
ADP closing line value is one of the best predictors of a winning roster:
🔸 Efficient market hypothesis
🔸 Get ahead of ADP risers
🔸 Uniqueness with rare player combos
🔸 Humility: Best way to get exposure to overvalued players in your portfolio
Stacks & Week 📅 correlation
Draft to win in the weeks that matter the most.
Are you constructing logical rosters that tell a story?
Draft to win in the weeks that matter the most.
Are you constructing logical rosters that tell a story?
March 6, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Stacks & Week 📅 correlation
Draft to win in the weeks that matter the most.
Are you constructing logical rosters that tell a story?
Draft to win in the weeks that matter the most.
Are you constructing logical rosters that tell a story?
Roster Constructions 🔢
Ensure you’re building to win with strategies like:
🔹 Anchor RB
🔹 Elite QB
🔹 Elite TE
🔹 WR4 by Round 7
Ensure you’re building to win with strategies like:
🔹 Anchor RB
🔹 Elite QB
🔹 Elite TE
🔹 WR4 by Round 7
March 6, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Roster Constructions 🔢
Ensure you’re building to win with strategies like:
🔹 Anchor RB
🔹 Elite QB
🔹 Elite TE
🔹 WR4 by Round 7
Ensure you’re building to win with strategies like:
🔹 Anchor RB
🔹 Elite QB
🔹 Elite TE
🔹 WR4 by Round 7
Player Exposures 📊
🔸Which players are you drafting or ignoring?
🔸ADP Closing Line Value
🔸Flag: quickly spot players you’re extremely over- or under-exposed to
🔸Which players are you drafting or ignoring?
🔸ADP Closing Line Value
🔸Flag: quickly spot players you’re extremely over- or under-exposed to
March 6, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Player Exposures 📊
🔸Which players are you drafting or ignoring?
🔸ADP Closing Line Value
🔸Flag: quickly spot players you’re extremely over- or under-exposed to
🔸Which players are you drafting or ignoring?
🔸ADP Closing Line Value
🔸Flag: quickly spot players you’re extremely over- or under-exposed to