Matthew
@mglimcher.bsky.social
Aerospace engineer, general aerospace enthusiast and walking encyclopedia.
Armature target archer with a 50lb bow.
Have a blog about engineering related things I find interesting at https://mglimcheraerospace.com/
Armature target archer with a 50lb bow.
Have a blog about engineering related things I find interesting at https://mglimcheraerospace.com/
to do what? we barely have the logistics to support the current fleet in peacetime.
Even if you assume the US gets involved (big if) and mobilize more sailors and pull out ready reserve ships for them, there isn't enough logistical capacity to support even the current fleet in an actual war.
Even if you assume the US gets involved (big if) and mobilize more sailors and pull out ready reserve ships for them, there isn't enough logistical capacity to support even the current fleet in an actual war.
December 30, 2025 at 7:31 PM
to do what? we barely have the logistics to support the current fleet in peacetime.
Even if you assume the US gets involved (big if) and mobilize more sailors and pull out ready reserve ships for them, there isn't enough logistical capacity to support even the current fleet in an actual war.
Even if you assume the US gets involved (big if) and mobilize more sailors and pull out ready reserve ships for them, there isn't enough logistical capacity to support even the current fleet in an actual war.
I agree. They’re very interested in trying to do colonialism better than the west ever did, and I think they’re much more interested in profiting off economic leverage than paying for military leverage. They don’t care if anyone likes them just that everyone needs them.
December 29, 2025 at 4:48 AM
I agree. They’re very interested in trying to do colonialism better than the west ever did, and I think they’re much more interested in profiting off economic leverage than paying for military leverage. They don’t care if anyone likes them just that everyone needs them.
For better or worse, the Chinese aren’t like the soviets, and they aren’t interested in client states or international prestige. I doubt they’d bother with more than special forces and weapons sales even if someone asked them too.
December 28, 2025 at 7:37 PM
For better or worse, the Chinese aren’t like the soviets, and they aren’t interested in client states or international prestige. I doubt they’d bother with more than special forces and weapons sales even if someone asked them too.
I assume it's around 30-35 ft in diameter based on the people and the torpedo tubes, and that would make the extended sail about the right size for SLBMs
December 27, 2025 at 4:15 PM
I assume it's around 30-35 ft in diameter based on the people and the torpedo tubes, and that would make the extended sail about the right size for SLBMs
exactly right. they've built a modified kilo like that before and it's how the first American and Russian ballistic missile subs were built too.
December 25, 2025 at 10:40 PM
exactly right. they've built a modified kilo like that before and it's how the first American and Russian ballistic missile subs were built too.
not sure exactly what missiles north Korea uses, but the tubes for the American and British trident missiles are about 50 ft tall, and a typical attack submarine's hull is only 30-35 ft in diameter, and just building a bigger sub is pretty hard.
December 25, 2025 at 10:36 PM
not sure exactly what missiles north Korea uses, but the tubes for the American and British trident missiles are about 50 ft tall, and a typical attack submarine's hull is only 30-35 ft in diameter, and just building a bigger sub is pretty hard.
probably space for ballistic missiles since those are significantly taller than that sub is wide.
December 25, 2025 at 10:24 PM
probably space for ballistic missiles since those are significantly taller than that sub is wide.
I think you could make a case for applying cutting edge artillery tech like ramjet shells or the long range maneuvering projectile to 16" guns, but I really doubt this'll be anything that clever or that it'll get built.
December 22, 2025 at 10:13 PM
I think you could make a case for applying cutting edge artillery tech like ramjet shells or the long range maneuvering projectile to 16" guns, but I really doubt this'll be anything that clever or that it'll get built.
what national security risks? It reduces dependence on oil.
They just hate wind power for some reason, and probably don't like that offshore wind is mostly a blue state thing because that's who's on the windy parts of the coast.
They just hate wind power for some reason, and probably don't like that offshore wind is mostly a blue state thing because that's who's on the windy parts of the coast.
December 22, 2025 at 3:45 PM
what national security risks? It reduces dependence on oil.
They just hate wind power for some reason, and probably don't like that offshore wind is mostly a blue state thing because that's who's on the windy parts of the coast.
They just hate wind power for some reason, and probably don't like that offshore wind is mostly a blue state thing because that's who's on the windy parts of the coast.
not even for bootstrapping. getting a grid forming inverter on your battery bank is already actually a cheaper and simpler way to do black start and inertia.
December 19, 2025 at 7:12 PM
not even for bootstrapping. getting a grid forming inverter on your battery bank is already actually a cheaper and simpler way to do black start and inertia.
One LFP batteries (and soon sodium ion) don't need any rare materials, and two, redirecting stuff like the cobalt used in oil refining and fuel systems to batteries would provide more than enough for all the batteries we need to replace said refining and fuel infrastructure.
December 19, 2025 at 7:10 PM
One LFP batteries (and soon sodium ion) don't need any rare materials, and two, redirecting stuff like the cobalt used in oil refining and fuel systems to batteries would provide more than enough for all the batteries we need to replace said refining and fuel infrastructure.
Tankers do usually use engine exhaust as the inert gas because if everything is reasonably maintained and the engine is running stoichiometric, the exhaust is free high pressure gas with no oxygen or unburnt fuel in it.
It could have a little unburnt fuel in it if the engine isn't in great shape.
It could have a little unburnt fuel in it if the engine isn't in great shape.
December 19, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Tankers do usually use engine exhaust as the inert gas because if everything is reasonably maintained and the engine is running stoichiometric, the exhaust is free high pressure gas with no oxygen or unburnt fuel in it.
It could have a little unburnt fuel in it if the engine isn't in great shape.
It could have a little unburnt fuel in it if the engine isn't in great shape.
There aren't really any man portable weapons that can protect the entire length of a tanker against arial drones, though it might offer some protection against sea drones depending on how good a shot they are.
I also never said anything about sinking a tanker, just making it unusable.
I also never said anything about sinking a tanker, just making it unusable.
December 19, 2025 at 5:22 PM
There aren't really any man portable weapons that can protect the entire length of a tanker against arial drones, though it might offer some protection against sea drones depending on how good a shot they are.
I also never said anything about sinking a tanker, just making it unusable.
I also never said anything about sinking a tanker, just making it unusable.
Even on a fully ladened tanker, the risk of it breaking up immediately would be relatively low in calm weather since there's a LOT of structural margin under those conditions, it just wouldn't be ocean going anymore because it might not survive a storm.
December 19, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Even on a fully ladened tanker, the risk of it breaking up immediately would be relatively low in calm weather since there's a LOT of structural margin under those conditions, it just wouldn't be ocean going anymore because it might not survive a storm.
I was assuming it was the same tanker as this post from H I Sutton that shows a huge fire. I could definitely have guessed wrong about that. It doesn't have to be full to burn if it's poorly maintained though, just needs some fuel vapors left in the tank that weren't purged
bsky.app/profile/cove...
bsky.app/profile/cove...
Per Russian reporting shared via @bunkerhunter.bsky.social, it is a tanker, and the high-ranking official General Andrei Averyanov of the GRU.
Why would a GRU boss be on a shadow fleet tanker? ;)
Why would a GRU boss be on a shadow fleet tanker? ;)
December 19, 2025 at 4:56 PM
I was assuming it was the same tanker as this post from H I Sutton that shows a huge fire. I could definitely have guessed wrong about that. It doesn't have to be full to burn if it's poorly maintained though, just needs some fuel vapors left in the tank that weren't purged
bsky.app/profile/cove...
bsky.app/profile/cove...
That’s what they should have done to start with since strict US standards are apparently nonnegotiable.
Just do some basic upgrades like changing the gun out for a 76mm (preferably with DART) and stick some self defense length VLS for ESSMs and some ASW gear on somewhere.
Just do some basic upgrades like changing the gun out for a 76mm (preferably with DART) and stick some self defense length VLS for ESSMs and some ASW gear on somewhere.
December 19, 2025 at 4:20 PM
That’s what they should have done to start with since strict US standards are apparently nonnegotiable.
Just do some basic upgrades like changing the gun out for a 76mm (preferably with DART) and stick some self defense length VLS for ESSMs and some ASW gear on somewhere.
Just do some basic upgrades like changing the gun out for a 76mm (preferably with DART) and stick some self defense length VLS for ESSMs and some ASW gear on somewhere.
So you don’t need to use a giant weapon that causes an oil spill to completely total the tankers if you’re clever, which the Ukrainians certainly are, and no sane person wants to cause an oil spill if they don’t have to.
December 19, 2025 at 4:15 PM
So you don’t need to use a giant weapon that causes an oil spill to completely total the tankers if you’re clever, which the Ukrainians certainly are, and no sane person wants to cause an oil spill if they don’t have to.
As an engineer, I can confirm that just striking the manifolds, which are the easiest to ignite, probably did render the ship a total loss because the heat from the giant fire would have weakened the steel hull enough that it’ll tear in half in the first big storm, and that’s not fixable.
December 19, 2025 at 4:15 PM
As an engineer, I can confirm that just striking the manifolds, which are the easiest to ignite, probably did render the ship a total loss because the heat from the giant fire would have weakened the steel hull enough that it’ll tear in half in the first big storm, and that’s not fixable.
I wouldn't expect them to be willing since European and Asian customers might not be so happy with that, and there would be no guarantee they would get to keep any investments long enough to make a profit from them.
December 18, 2025 at 12:48 AM
I wouldn't expect them to be willing since European and Asian customers might not be so happy with that, and there would be no guarantee they would get to keep any investments long enough to make a profit from them.
Has anyone mentioned Edison Motors from Canada yet?
December 16, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Has anyone mentioned Edison Motors from Canada yet?
I think that's because, despite the narrative, they've never actually been substituting for 6" unguided artillery shells directly. Anti-Ground FPV and bomber drones are more of a substitute for anti-tank missiles and air superiority.
December 15, 2025 at 2:35 PM
I think that's because, despite the narrative, they've never actually been substituting for 6" unguided artillery shells directly. Anti-Ground FPV and bomber drones are more of a substitute for anti-tank missiles and air superiority.
And if you want regime change in Venezuela, you should have to make the case to congress and the American people, and I think there's a case to be made, but we have to decide as a nation if that's worth it since it'll be a hard and bloody war.
December 8, 2025 at 7:20 PM
And if you want regime change in Venezuela, you should have to make the case to congress and the American people, and I think there's a case to be made, but we have to decide as a nation if that's worth it since it'll be a hard and bloody war.
What bothers me more is that if you want to stop narco boats, it would be both cheaper and more legally sound to support the coast guard with a few LCS (since that's basically what they were designed for) and some patrol assets, and save the big guns to use elsewhere.
December 8, 2025 at 7:20 PM
What bothers me more is that if you want to stop narco boats, it would be both cheaper and more legally sound to support the coast guard with a few LCS (since that's basically what they were designed for) and some patrol assets, and save the big guns to use elsewhere.
While shooting a Hellfire at a terrorist is about the same no matter who does it, I think doing it as a questionable sideshow for a war congress approved is different from doing it without congressional approval matters because that prevent the other side form doing stuff you don't like later.
December 8, 2025 at 7:20 PM
While shooting a Hellfire at a terrorist is about the same no matter who does it, I think doing it as a questionable sideshow for a war congress approved is different from doing it without congressional approval matters because that prevent the other side form doing stuff you don't like later.
Took long enough. That should make a real dent in the Russian drone attacks.
December 5, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Took long enough. That should make a real dent in the Russian drone attacks.