NVIDIA gets a creator of the TPU, access to inference tech & IP, and stops anyone else from getting such things. All for a mere $20B...

Twas the week before Christmas... and I'm emptying my notebook below before I'm back on the road for a couple weeks. Writing here and there, as always. Including looking back at last year's predictions – trying to give Apple a few more days to pull off #1! For now, there's a lot below. Happy Holidays. 🍻 * * * ### The Inner Ring... Conflicts & Interests in AI*Of course* Amazon is investing in OpenAI, next up…SpyglassM.G. SieglerThe Grand Netflix Hollywood Unification TheoryWarner Bros/HBO is phase one of Netflix’s bigger play here…SpyglassM.G. SieglerThe AI Chaos LadderWhere do the leaders in AI fall?SpyglassM.G. Siegler * * * ### I Note... **📹****TikTok Signs Away US Entity** – Technically, the deal still isn't done. It's set to close on January 22, 2026 and presumably China (or the Trump administration) could still kill it in some way. But presumably TikTok wouldn't have signed without China's blessing – or assurances China would give the final sign-off? I mean, who knows, this whole situation has been such a farce. Including the "around $14B" valuation – I often joke about big deals being less than AI seed rounds these days, but this one truly is! It's also a little odd that an Abu Dhabi-based fund is one of the key backers to ensure American control of the entity? It's also still not clear which "new investors" own the mysterious other 5% – is it the Murdochs? The US Government? Oracle is clearly the lead here, so it will be interesting if that in some way gets roped into the Netflix/Warner Bros/Paramount love triangle – does the ownership of the father mean anything for the ownership of the son? What if the father is backstopping said ownership? With shares in said buyer of TikTok? It's yet another wrinkle that could be in Netflix's favor here... But the main question remains: is TikTok really still going to remain the hot consumer product when owned by a nearly 50 year old tech company (one in turbulent waters given their AI reinvention efforts, no less) and private equity funds? Where's 'TikTok 2'? ****[**Axios****]** 🚙 **Waymo Worth Way More Than $100B** – I mean, at least in my own estimation, just based on our current market environment (Tesla, Uber, etc) and not to mention that AI startups are closing in on such valuations with little to show for it – certainly not traction and/or revenue like Waymo has! Then again, Alphabet is getting others to validate the valuation, which is undoubtedly part of the very reason for the raise (as Google could clearly just fund this themselves). And they sort of have the burden of showing _actual_ revenue – $350M ARR – versus even Tesla, which still has a very much in beta self-driving taxi program. Still, there's a whole future-of-transportation/magical experience narrative that they could spin here (and would, were Elon Musk running the company, you imagine – though he would also say, as he often does, that Waymo's approach isn't scalable in the way Tesla's will be) where $100B is an absolute steal. For now, maybe they're just fine to fly relatively low-key under the lidar. ****[**Bloomberg****🔒]** **💰****OpenAI Worth Way More Than $800B** – By which I mean they're apparently targeting an $830B valuation in a new would-be fundraise. That's a curiously precise number for a famously imprecise business, unless you consider that they really perhaps just want that number to be higher than $800B – the number at which SpaceX is now valued, of course. And when earlier reports suggested the valuation could be a _mere_ $750B – the old pre versus post switcheroo? – that simply couldn't stand. So who is investing? I mean, who is left? Amazon, for one, it seems. Undoubtedly more sovereign wealth funds for another. Would Apple revisit? Would Google _dare_?! Nothing can be ruled out. Good on Disney for squeezing into the old $500B valuation – with warrants for more, no less. 🎶When you wish upon a paper gain...🎶 Speaking of, all of the SoftBank money from the _last_ fundraise isn't even in the bank yet. This is true perpetual fundraising. And clearly necessary! But it will also undoubtedly push up the targeted IPO valuation (as I predicted a whole month ago). Maybe OpenAI could buy Waymo with this fresh $100B? ****[**WSJ****🔒]** **⚽️****FIFA's New Netflix Game** – There's been a bunch of Netflix gaming news in the past several weeks that's now completely buried under the weight of Warner Bros. But the initiative will clearly be key if Netflix wants to become the "everything app" for entertainment – and the first $1T media company – which is why they keep trying to pivot their way into the right model/experience in gaming. FIFA is an interesting play here because it was a beloved franchise (though not exactly the best brand!) that vanished over a licensing dispute with EA (which obviously kept going with new 'EA Sports FC' branding). The timing of the return, of course, is good with the World Cup next year. But can an unproven developer (that Netflix is partnering with) really nail this on the first shot? (They're also co-developing the first new James Bond game in forever due in March.) If nothing else, the price is right (free, for Netflix members). ****[**BBC****]** **💰****Yann LeCun is Raising Money** – Two key tidbits: 1) the company is called Advanced Machine Intelligence Labs (AMI Labs) – doesn't get more generic than that – 2) they're targeting raising €500M at a €3B valuation. That almost seems quaint and shows some restraint in this day and age! Still, it presumably will make LeCun a billionaire, or close to it, on paper. Sort of interesting/fun to think about in the context of what Zuck has been dishing out to AI talent and what he clearly _wasn't_ dishing out to LeCun. This report reiterates (as LeCun has stated) that Meta won't be invested in the lab but there is still some sort of "partnership", which continues to sound like PR for both sides post-breakup. Also, LeCun has brought on a CEO named LeBrun, that's just LeFun. ****[**FT****🔒]** **🎬****Warner Bros Discovery Rejects Paramount's Takeover Bid** – No surprise, but the two most interesting tidbits are how WBD felt misled by Paramount as their bids kept morphing to make them more attractive, and how they don't believe Paramount is actually good for the money – even though it's being backstopped by Larry Ellison. They don't trust the revocable trust (where Ellison's Oracle shares reside) element. It can't help that those shares are in a free-fall as investor concerns mount over Oracle's AI spend and the debt required... Paramount hasn't raised the offer thus far and instead seems intent on taking it to the shareholders for a vote. And while some of those investors are open to Paramount's offer, it feels like there are an increasing number of things starting to work against it – beyond the Oracle concerns, the YouTube/Oscars deal may oddly help Netflix's regulatory case, the fact that hedge funds are now circling the WBD TV networks (so there's clearly outside interest in those), Jared Kushner oddly dropping out of the consortium may not matter monetarily but seems like it will optically for you-know-who, etc. It's worth listening to RedBird Capital's Gerry Cardinale for the counter-arguments on Matt Belloni's podcast _The Town_. He truly believes it will come down to how those TV networks are valued, and that the WBD/Netflix would be implicitly wildly overvaluing them (versus their offer). It is interesting that no one is talking about the potential Netflix stock upside in this deal... Feels like they should? All eyes turn to January 8, the deadline for investor tenders... ****[**NYT****]** * * * ### I Quote... > "The bull case is that they’ll scale into it, and that a lot of companies have low margins to start, but this is a company at scale. There is no scaling going on here." – **Gil Luria** , an analyst with D.A. Davidson, giving his thoughts on CoreWeave – a company which he says has the "ugliest balance sheet in technology, by far." * * * ### I Wrote... YouTube Hands the Best Acquisition Oscar to NetflixWith YouTube poaching The Academy Awards, it sure feels like Netflix is going to be allowed to buy Warner Bros now…SpyglassM.G. SieglerChatGPT Starts to Break the Bounds of ChatA necessary product evolution is underway.…SpyglassM.G. SieglerCongrats Regulators, You Killed RoombaActually, you just put a Chinese robot in every home…SpyglassM.G. Siegler * * * ### Asides... * Warner Bros aside, **Netflix** continues to be fast and furious with their **video podcast** signings, cutting deals with both **iHeartMedia** and **Barstool** this week. The audio will continue to play anywhere, but the video is Netflix-exclusive. Sorry, YouTube... ****[**The Athletic****🔒]** * The latter is interesting given their previous deal with **Spotify** for **_The Ringer_** content. Obviously, there's a rivalry there – even before Barstool poached Ryen Russillo... Remember when Netflix didn't care about sports? * Speaking of Netflix and sports, they're also hiring **Elle Duncan** away from **ESPN** to host their live sporting events. ****[**Variety****]** * One would-be podcaster not going anywhere? **Howard Stern**. After all that, he's sticking with **SiriusXM**. It's a shorter deal (three years) and he'll undoubtedly be cutting his workload again. But no fun Apple/YouTube/Spotify/Netflix deal. ****[**THR****]** * Meanwhile, also undoubtedly in response to YouTube, **Instagram** is putting **Reels** on your **TV**. First via a Fire TV app. Yes, this seemingly _also_ helps to make the case for why Netflix should be allowed to buy Warner Bros. ****[**THR****]** * Is **Blue Owl** backing away from the **data center** project in Michigan a blue-owl-in-the-coalmine situation, or just specifically about **Oracle's** debt load? Or both? It's seemingly the first sign of prudence in the market – this is the key partner for the first Stargate and Meta's 'Hyperion'. ****[**FT****🔒]** * Speaking of **data centers** , I've been meaning to link to this fantastic visual reporting piece about the issues with **power demand**. ****[**FT****🔒]** * **Thinking Machines Lab** is planning to release their own in-house developed **models** next year – you'd sort of hope so given the rumored $50B valuation they're seeking, but also what they've done to date, product-wise (helping others create custom models, seemingly distilled). ****[**Information****🔒]** * I have two questions on the news that the parent of **Truth Social** is merging with a **nuclear fusion startup**. Both of them are "what?" ****[**NYT****]** * On one hand, the new **app directory** in **ChatGPT** is pretty straightforward and simple. On the other, OpenAI**** has tried to launch an "app store" before. Everyone keeps trying to launch app stores, but will users come? ****[**Verge****]** * **Meta** is readying their "**Mango** " AI model for image and video generation. Wonder if they'll go with these names outward-facing to try to match/copy "Nano Banana" (and what OpenAI should have done with "Strawberry"). ****[**WSJ****🔒]** * This is, of course, tied to "**Avocado** ", the likely _closed_ new non-Llama **flagship model** , ironically distilled from other "open" models. Oh, Meta. ****[**Bloomberg****🔒]** * Also in the internal Q&A that was leaked (as always), **Alexandr Wang** said they're exploring "**world models** " which is weird because they just parted ways with the high-profile guy leading that charge... * Seems like we can add "**continual learning** " to the **AI terms** that will be oft-repeated in 2026, alongside "sparse attention", "reinforcement learning" (nothing new, of course, and perhaps _the_ key learning from Deep Seek a year ago, alongside "MoE"), and yes, of course, "world models". ****[**Bloomberg****🔒]** * Do you want to know seemingly every product in **Apple's pipeline** for the next **two years**? Well, here you go thanks to yet another massive software leak. ****[**MacRumors****]** * This apparently involved a **prototype iPhone** that was sold. Which had an internal build of iOS with secret in-the-works device **codenames** included. Yikes. ****[**MacRumors****]** * The **teaser** for **_Disclosure Day_** , **Steven Spielberg's** _fourth_ alien-related movie looks... I'm honestly not sure. But I appreciate how vague it is. Is there some connection to _Close Encounters of the Third Kind_? No one will say... ****[**THR****]** * * * ### I Spy... Yeah, it's getting harder to see, quite literally, how Paramount Skydance is getting this deal. Certainly neither Netflix or Warner Bros Discovery think that right now!

Where do the leaders in AI fall?

With YouTube poaching The Academy Awards, it sure feels like Netflix is going to be allowed to buy Warner Bros now...

A necessary product evolution is underway....

*Of course* Amazon is investing in OpenAI, next up...

Actually, you just put a Chinese robot in every home...

Warner Bros/HBO is phase one of Netflix's bigger play here...

Hard to believe we're only a week removed from Netflix announcing the acquisition of Warner Bros. Feels like a lot has happened since then, because it has. Notably, a move to go hostile by Paramount Skydance, with David Ellison pitching WBD shareholders directly, via "lengthy letters". He's clearly big mad. **BOLD** mad, no less. A couple fun tick-tocks reveal why: they clearly thought they had this deal in the bag – I mean, they got Jared Kushner's fund involved, when Netflix swooped in, leading David Zaslav to ghost Ellison. Ouch. WBD was clearly worried about the foreign money components of the financing as well as the financing itself. It certainly can't help that Oracle's stock is down nearly 35% in the past few months – and nearly 15% this week alone – given that Larry Ellison is backstopping the deal. Unless Paramount pulls out, it feels like this is going to go on for months. As such, the deal may not actually close for _years_. History – both Barry Diller and Sumner Redstone back in the day battling for Paramount (more on that at the bottom of this newsletter), and more recently, Disney and Comcast battling for Fox – would seem to indicate Netflix is still the likely victor, but it will probably cost them a lot more money to get it done. But history also didn't have this particular administration in power so... Who knows. One big signal coming in January will be when Comcast spins off Versant (their TV channel cruft) and we'll see how that's valued, which will dictate how WBD's channels (not part of the Netflix deal but part of the Paramount deal) should be valued. Anyway, I've gotten two takes out of this fiasco so far – that Hollywood is silly to fear Netflix here, relative to the alternative at least! And wondering if Netflix truly has found religion with movie theaters, or if they're just saying that to try to woo Hollywood and seal this deal – and I look forward to months more of good fodder in the form of popcorn. * * * ### The Inner Ring... The Trillion Dollar Business Staring Apple in the FaceApple needs a new hit product. Well, needs is relative. They want a new hit product. And Wall Street clearly wants them to have it. The new iPhones are a hit. But eventually Apple needs that new product. Services are doing great, but that’s not a singular sexy product. TheSpyglassM.G. SieglerMeta Bought a HeadacheIs the internal AI pain ultimately going to be worth the price?SpyglassM.G. SieglerApple TurnoverThe recent executive and talent exits at Apple are both ordinarily orderly and completely chaotic…SpyglassM.G. Siegler * * * ### Thoughts On... **💰****Anthropic is Broadcom's $10B Mystery Partner – to Buy TPUs** – In last quarter's earnings, Broadcom disclosed a new $10B deal with a partner they refused to name. This led to speculation that it was either OpenAI – which was subsequently shot down as they have their own, other massive deal with Broadcom – or one of the Big Tech players. Will, it's sort of tangential to one of them, with _Anthropic_ now confirmed as the partner – _to buy TPUs from Broadcom_. This is obviously an offshoot of Anthropic's own recently announced deal with Google, but it's also bigger than that because it further confirms that Google is now clearly competing with NVIDIA in _selling_ XPUs – this isn't just _talking_ to Meta about the chips, this is Anthropic _committed_ to buying them. Oh, and apparently $11B more on top of this. And they're presumably buying them to put in data centers they're building (or why not let the data center operators buy them – exclusive access, maybe?). And it probably led to NVIDIA cutting their own direct deal with Anthropic to try to combat a full shift (on top of the shift they already have done to Amazon's Trainium chips). Also, amazing call by @Zephyr, who nailed this two months ago. ****[**CNBC****]** **🤖****GPT-5.2** – The strangest thing to me about the latest model is how _little_ people seem to be talking about it. After the flurry of press when it was announced, the actual chatter seems almost non-existent, at least relative to 5 and 5.1. But that's probably a good thing! As those were being talked about for the wrong reasons. This is just more of a "yeah, it's good" release, coming less than a month after 5.1, perhaps to push ahead of Gemini once again to end the year. Or perhaps to get it out the door ahead of a true heads-down "Code Red" sprint towards the next release – maybe the one including sexy time? ****[**Verge****]** **🏡****Apple Home Products Come More Into Focus** – Leaked internal Apple code seemingly confirms not only the impending arrival of the long-rumored "HomePad" device, but features including a camera that can be used not just for FaceTime, but also FaceID, and which notably may give the device multi-user support. Apple TV and Macs have long had such functionality, but iPads, famously, have not – which has long been annoying for households with, say, families. The code also suggests one other accessory is coming alongside the new home device and is sure seems like a security camera. All of it should finally hit this Spring. ****[**MacWorld****]** **📲****2025's Top Downloaded Apps** – ChatGPT takes the top spot for the first time in Apple's year-end charts – up from 4th place last year. Meanwhile, Meta has three apps in the Top 10 (Threads, WhatsApp, Instagram) – but far more impressive is Google with _five_ (Google, YouTube, Google Maps, Gmail, Gemini). Yes, Google controls half of the top apps on Apple's App Store. The only other player is TikTok. (Notably, Facebook missed the cut this year at number 11.) Though things have been shifting of late as AI takes over, with OpenAI's Sora and even xAI's Grok charting last month, pushing out every Meta app aside from Threads, and TikTok – where's that sale, by the way? ****[**TechCrunch****]** **☄️****Data Centers in Space** – Such a prospect certainly sheds new light on the private space race between Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos (and why Sam Altman might want OpenAI involved in a rocket company). While I don't think either started with that goal, it could be a nice, and extremely lucrative offshoot, just as the satellite internet service has been with Starlink – and soon Amazon Leo? At the same time, this is obviously a lot harder than just throwing some data center-equipped satellites into space. Even the notion of cooling such devices is not as straightforward as you might assume – yes, space is technically cold, but it's also, as it turns out, a vacuum. The kind of environment that doesn't dissipate heat well. You have to _glow_ it off! Still, solar power will certainly be more abundant! But will that be more efficient than land-based power plants? Probably not for a long time. And let's not even bother with data transfer speeds. Are these going to be giant tape back-ups in the sky for a while? Still, undoubtedly the future at some point! Regardless, good narrative for SpaceX share sales taking place at $800B, leaping back in front of OpenAI. Oh yes, and an IPO, leaping back in front of... OpenAI. Total coincidences, these narratives are. ****[**WSJ****🔒]** * * * ### I Quote... > "They thought they were playing 5D chess and they were playing tiddlywinks." – **A "person close to the administration"** commenting on how Paramount has been misplaying their hand with President Trump, assuming they'd have a leg up in the race to buy Warner Bros. To quote a character from a Warner Bros film, as one must in such situations, "Do you feel in charge?" * * * ### I Wrote... OpenAI Strikes BackOpenAI’s deal with Disney deals a blow to Google…SpyglassM.G. SieglerHas Netflix Truly Found Religion in Movie Theaters?They’re *saying* the right things, will they follow through…SpyglassM.G. SieglerOh No, a Tech Company is Buying a Movie StudioThis is the end of Hollywood? Come on.SpyglassM.G. Siegler * * * ### Asides... * Happy **10th birthday** **OpenAI**. If that seems old to you, it's because ChatGPT itself only came about 3 years ago. Before that, it was a lot of research and other experiments. The Wild Ride continues. ****[**OpenAI****]** * Oh look, **Gemini** finally baked into **Chrome** on **mobile**... ****[**9to5Google****]** * Given all the new deals **Anthropic** is cutting – Google, Microsoft, NVIDIA, etc – seems fair to wonder if their relationship with **Amazon** , their largest shareholder is a-ok. There are some _faint_ OpenAI/Microsoft echoes... ****[**Information****🔒]** * **Amazon** playing hardball with the **US Postal Service** feels a bit like the Dodgers playing against the kids from _The Sandlot_. ****[**WaPo****]** * Good news for **NVIDIA** , their **H200** chips are back on the menu in **China**! ****[**Semafor****]** * Well, not so fast, says **China**. ****[**FT****🔒]** * But maybe, says China, after talking to **tech companies in China**. ****[**Information****🔒]** * Does this mean these players will stop using the **banned** , more powerful **NVIDIA** **chips**? Undoubtedly not. How? AI, uh, finds a way – allegedly **smuggling** chips using a fake "Sandkyan" brand. ****[**Bloomberg****🔒]** * Note the term "**Sparse Attention** " as one imagines it will be coming up more in 2026. And **NVIDIA's** **Blackwell** chips may be the key to make it work... ****[**Information****🔒]** * Did the notion of **Huawei** catching up with their **AI systems** despite (_or really because of_) the bans sway Trump? ****[**Bloomberg****🔒]** * All of this for the low-low price of **25% of sales** to the **US government**. As the 15% deal was clearly altered further, despite prayers. Doesn't matter, this was a "break glass" situation for NVIDIA. ****[**CNBC****]** * Why can't **Russia** (and other countries) block **iMessage**(while they're busy blocking FaceTime)? It's all about the design of how it works with push notifications. ****[**Daring Fireball****]** * **Jeff Williams** , fresh off his retirement from Apple is up for a plum new (part-time) position: board member at **Disney**. ****[**THR****]** * If **Salesforce** really rebrands into '**Agentforce** '... I mean, my god. ****[**BI****🔒]** * Look, I'm not saying it's a bubble, but **NeurIPS** , a 39-year-old conference devoted to neural networks,**** had **26,000 attendees** this year. ****[**NBC News****]** * Great quote out of it: **"People built bridges before Isaac Newton figured out physics."** * Also, all anyone apparently wanted to discuss there was **reinforcement learning** and **world models**... ****[**Sources****🔒]** * Not really sure why **Google** did a full-court press preview of the range of **AI glasses** coming next year, but they seem to be okay? Enough with the show and tells, just ship them or not? ****[**Bloomberg****🔒]** * Meanwhile, **Meta** is apparently delaying the release of their own next-gen **glasses** (one of many headsets they have in the pipeline, including still some VR ones, despite the cuts) codenamed "**Phoenix** " into 2027. ****[**BI****]** * Speaking of, I was surprised by the relatively muted response to **Meta** buying **Limitless** , given that they make _an always-on AI wearable_. But they're also shutting that product – too bad, it was cute! – so it seems more just an acquihire ahead of getting Allen Dye to try to combat whatever OpenAI/Jony Ive have cooking up. ****[**TechCrunch****]** * **YouTube TV** is finally going more granular with their offers – 10 genre-specific and, importantly, _cheaper_ **packages** – one might even call them "bundles" – are inbound. Feels like they _had_ to do this before they inevitably raise the full price to $100/month next year. ****[**Variety****]** * **AMC Theaters** is selling most of their stake in the **gold and silver mining** companies they bought into in 2022 to raise cash. The movie theater business is just fine. Why do you ask? ****[**THR****]** * * * ### I Spy... The parallels between the Netflix/Warner Bros/Paramount battle and 30 years ago when Barry Diller fought Sumner Redstone for control of Paramount are fun. Redstone would be Netflix in the equation, and he obviously eventually won the deal for Viacom. Diller, in losing, famously said, "They won. We lost. Next." And so Redstone/Viacom responded with the following swag. Ice cold. Might I suggest that either Ted Sarandos and/or David Ellison get on eBay to rock this depending on who wins this battle?

Apple needs a new hit product. Well, _needs_ is relative. They _want_ a new hit product. And Wall Street clearly wants them to have it. The new iPhones are a hit. But eventually Apple needs that _new_ product. Services are doing great, but that's not a singular sexy product. The Vision Pro wasn't it. The new "HomePad" thing might be fun, but probably won't move any needles. Smart Glasses might do better, but still undoubtedly won't be close to iPhone-sized. The car project crashed. As has AI work in general. Robots? Maybe one day. But there's one idea that's right there, right now, just staring them in the face. The only problem? It's not a _consumer_ product... ### This post is for subscribers only Become a member to get access to all content Subscribe now

OpenAI's deal with Disney deals a blow to Google...

Is the internal AI pain ultimately going to be worth the price?

They're *saying* the right things, will they follow through...

The recent executive and talent exits at Apple are both ordinarily orderly and completely chaotic...

This is the end of Hollywood? Come on.

Earlier today, on the back of the reporting that Netflix was closing in on a deal with Warner Bros Discovery, I wrote up some thoughts. It's obviously a massive deal with ramifications both for entertainment and tech. Just a few hours later, Netflix confirmed the $82.7B cash-and-stock deal. Mind you, that's just for the Warner Bros studio and HBO Max streaming service, the cable channel assets will still be spun-out ahead of this deal closing. So yeah, it's a big price. And certainly a deal unlike any Netflix has done before. While investors clearly dislike the deal (Netflix's stock has been down between 3% and 5% on a day the overall market is up), it could make quite a bit of sense – if it actually gets completed. Netflix is going to have a hell of a fight on their hands on a few fronts there. Including with Hollywood in general, which clearly does not want to lose another studio, let alone such a historic one, to the hands of tech. But I also don't think it will end up being a bad thing for that industry in the long run. Which is just an impossible thing to hear right now, but it's an industry on the verge of everything being thrown into disarray with AI. For now, I'll just tout my predictions from last year, both that WBD would be acquired, but also that Netflix would eventually backtrack on their theatrical release stance. Book look good right now. But again, there's a long way to go here. Get the popcorn ready. The Albanian Army Closes in on Warner BrosIn a stunning turn, Netflix enters pole position to take over Warner Bros and HBO…SpyglassM.G. Siegler * * * ### The Inner Ring... OpenAI’s One Battle After AnotherBeyond the Google threat, if Anthropic were to IPO before OpenAI…SpyglassM.G. SieglerThe AI Snow Globe is Shaken2025 is ending with “Code Reds”, “retirements”, new models, worries about old models, new chips, worries about old chips, crushed earnings, stock shorting, oh my…SpyglassM.G. SieglerLive and Let DyeThe exit of Alan Dye augurs another Apple shift in UISpyglassM.G. Siegler * * * ### Thoughts On... **🌍****Meta Not Investing in Yann LeCun's "World Model" Startup** – As expected, while everyone was saying the right things around his exit – how the two sides would continue to work together, yadda, yadda – it sure sounds like Meta won't be investing in his new startup _because he doesn't want them investing in his new startup_. In fact, he seemingly doesn't want to have anything to do with Silicon Valley anymore – or at least, for now: "Silicon Valley is completely hypnotized by generative models. So you have to do this kind of work outside of the Valley, in Paris." Hypnotized to the point of spending $15B or so to reboot your AI work with offering billion-dollar comp packages, perhaps? He also seemingly confirmed that Meta wasn't interested in his new work – will that end up a mistake? Plenty of others clearly are! ****[**Bloomberg****🔒]** **🇪🇺****The EU Strikes Back** – While it has seemed like regulators in Europe were taking their foot off the gas a bit with both their own regime change, as well as the situation with the Trump administration, they're clearly still finding new and interesting ways to go after Big Tech. I actually think the probe into Meta over the use of AI within WhatsApp is the type of thing that _should_ be looked into – not because it's Meta, but because all of the scaled players have crazy advantages when it comes to distribution of their AI tools. It's probably what should have been more of the focus in the Google antitrust remedies, but instead the rise of AI ended up _helping_ Google (as it is naturally disrupting Search). Note that this has nothing to do with the DMA and is simply a probe for now – the EU loves to launch probes. Which is still a problem because some seem like completely political wastes of time (or worse) while others seem warranted. On a tangential note, I will admit that I do find it somewhat humorous that the EU is fining Xitter $140M – what characters. ****[**FT****🔒]** 🐭 **Disney's Two-Mouse Race** – It has felt for a while like the battle to succeed Bob Iger as Disney CEO was down to two candidates: Josh D'Amaro and Dana Walden and this reporting all-but-confirms it. Further, it has also at least looked from the outside like D'Amaro has pulled ahead over the past year or so. While it's undoubtedly unfair to use Walden's friendship with Kamala Harris as a data point here, it also probably has to be taken into account because a certain President of the United States will take it into account. And the flip side was also true: had Harris won, such a relationship undoubtedly would have boosted Walden. So it's bad timing/luck. And the Jimmy Kimmel debacle probably doesn't help either. But one new question: does the Netflix/Warner deal change the equation at all? Presumably not, but Walden's role will be even more vital, so could Disney convince her to stay even if not in the top job? Co-CEOs has to be out of the question, right? Even though it's working for Netflix! Sort of wild that 2026 could see new leaders atop two of the major studios... ****[**WSJ****🔒]** **💸****Michael Burry's 1999** – A fun read where he goes into his backstory around the Dot Com Bubble. Personally, I had no idea that he was sort of casually writing about stocks on the side of his work as a resident physician at Stanford Hospital. His favorite topic? Like any good blogger: Apple. "Great companies can be missed for a long period of time. Apple was one of them. At the time, I liked where it sat in the culture of creative computing, with a very proprietary angle and a knack for minor hits and long draughts. Plus they had just released their Blueberry, Strawberry, Tangerine, Grape, and Lime iMacs. And I thought, yep, this is the reason to own Apple." He was not wrong. Though perhaps early. See also: his recent podcast with _Big Short_ author Michael Lewis where he talks through his (more nuanced) thinking around his recent short positions on Palantir and NVIDIA. Basically, he simply thinks the AI Bubble is going to burst within the next couple years. ****[**Cassandra Unchained****]** * * * ### I Wrote... Drop the ‘Meta’. It’s Cleaner.Meta contemplates a step back from the Metaverse…SpyglassM.G. SieglerWith Both Apple & AI, Timing Remains EverythingA discussion that bridges and connects those worlds…SpyglassM.G. SieglerIntel Inside, In a WayApple closes in on throwing Intel that fab bone…SpyglassM.G. SieglerFlakes on a Plane‘Flight Risk’ is soaringly awful…SpyglassM.G. Siegler * * * ### I Quote... > "We as a company try to manage as responsibly as we can. And then I think there are some players who are YOLO-ing." – **Dario Amodei** speaking at the _New York Times_ DealBook Summit about some unnamed competitors, at least one of which is pretty clearly the place he used to work: OpenAI. This is basically the point I was making in writing "AGI or Bust". Great risk, great reward, and all that. But Anthropic's more prudent approach could pay off depending on the markets... In the same talk, Amodei also said he thinks scaling (LLMs) will get us to AGI eventually (i.e. he doesn't think we need new models – which makes sense for him to say that since, at least as far as anyone knows, Anthropic isn't working on other models). And yes, he also had a fun quote about how they don't do "Code Reds" – like that other company he dare not name. * * * ### Asides... * Speaking of... is it more like "Code Red for thee, not for me" over at **OpenAI** with **Sam Altman** exploring building a um, **SpaceX** competitor?! ****[**WSJ****🔒]** * To be fair, it seems like he was discussing this months ago, before the actual **Code Red** – though perhaps not before the **Code Orange**! Regardless, it adds to the narrative that OpenAI perhaps needs to focus a bit more from the top down... * OTOH, there is a world where being able to launch things into space is a huge strategic advantage in **AI** , if say, you need to launch **data centers in to space**... * **One more thing** : an aside in that story was that the **OpenAI** /**NVIDIA** deal is _still not finalized_ apparently. Um... * How upset was **Masa Son** that he had to sell **SoftBank's** **NVIDIA's** shares in order to fund his continued partnership with OpenAI? He was apparently "crying" about it. Which just raises the question how he felt after the last sale that literally ended up costing him _hundreds of billions_. ****[**CNBC****]** * Happy **3rd birthday** **ChatGPT**. Amazing how much has changed.****[**TechCrunch****]** * Add **_The New York Times_** and **_The Chicago Tribune_** to the growing list of media (and non-media) companies suing **Perplexity**. ****[**NYT****]** * Meanwhile, some **news publishers** have signed deals with **Meta** to use their content within **AI** products. Unlike the last 35 times, Charlie Brown is going to _totally_ kick the football this time. Lucy will not pull it at the last minute. Not a chance... ****[**Axios****]** * While I just spent much of the day praising **Netflix** , I will say that killing off the ability to "**cast** " content to TVs is pretty annoying. I use this quite often at say, hotels. But above all else, Netflix wants to be in control... ****[**Verge****]** * Jumping to a scene in any movie on a **Fire TV** by describing it to **Alexa** seems like a fun showcase of their **AI capabilities** , but it is just a party trick? Who wants to jump to an exact scene of a movie that often? Isn't that what YouTube is for? ****[**THR****]** * * * ### I Spy... With all the talk of the AI Bubble, you often hear OpenAI's spend talked about in context of what both Uber spent to get to profitability and before that, Amazon. Well, Jim Reid and Deutsche Bank actually charted it out. And... wow. Code Red indeed.

In a stunning turn, Netflix enters pole position to take over Warner Bros and HBO...

Meta contemplates a step back from the Metaverse...

The exit of Alan Dye augurs another Apple shift in UI

Beyond the Google threat, if Anthropic were to IPO before OpenAI...

2025 is ending with "Code Reds", "retirements", new models, worries about old models, new chips, worries about old chips, crushed earnings, stock shorting, oh my...

A discussion that bridges and connects those worlds...

Apple closes in on throwing Intel that fab bone...

'Flight Risk' is soaringly awful...

Happy belated Thanksgiving to those in the US (though we celebrated here in London as well). Catching up the day after with a lot packed in below. While also, of course, gearing up for The Game tomorrow. Five in a row? Seems improbable though certainly not impossible... #GoBlue 〽️ * * * ### The Inner Ring... DeepMind Should Make the UK Proud and EmbarrassedA growing sense that growth will never return to the UK…SpyglassM.G. SieglerNVIDIA Evokes the ‘E’ WordBecause they invoked it! Multiple times! In a memo!SpyglassM.G. Siegler * * * ### Thoughts On... **🗣️** **Ilya Sutskever on Dwarkesh Podcast** – There's a lot in here, and yes, some great memes. A few main takeaways include his notion that Safe Superintelligence can compete with his former colleagues at OpenAI (and elsewhere) despite having less capital in the bank because those guys are bogged down in the "rat race" – not only having models and products out there in the world, but also solely (or mainly) focused on LLMs (where "scaling has sucked the oxygen out of the room" when it comes to new ideas). SSI has "returned to research", trying to come up with other models and methods but at the same time, he's backing off the notion of going straight for Superintelligence and hinting they might get some work out there sooner ("gradual roll out"). Because the work might actually be around "a mind that can learn" rather than be pre-loaded with everything – which isn't natural. As always, Sutskever loves going back to human evolution and that's clearly guiding him here. Will it work? No one knows, and he's pretty honest about that – which also may be why his co-founder Daniel Gross bailed for Meta when Zuck came with a "Godfather" offer (which Sutskever directly addressed too – he didn't want to sell, but Gross clearly did). He thinks we're still 5 to 20 years away from what we would consider AGI/Superintelligence/Whatever. And perhaps more notably, that the LLM-focused folks may "stall out" on their progress, _perhaps_ _in the next couple of years_. That doesn't mean some won't be good businesses, but they'll be even more squarely competing in that "rat race". That's, um, something to watch! ****[**Dwarkesh****]** **😮****OpenAI's First "Jaw-Droppingly Good" Prototype** – While it has long felt like you could almost triangulate what they've been working towards, the news here is that they finally have _a prototype_ they're excited about. From what Sam Altman and Jony Ive are saying, it's not clear even if the device is actually _working_ yet – all we have is the "beautiful cabin by the lake, and in the mountains" _vibe_ reveal from Altman – or if they're just pleased with the form factor they've landed upon. But it's apparently less than two years away, per Ive. "I hope when people see it, they say 'that's it," says Altman. To which Ive quickly jumps in, "Yeah, they will." His short laugh appended to the end of that gives one a lot of hope. He clearly likes whatever they have! Now for the fun part: figuring out how to manufacturer it at scale. It doesn't seem like a coincidence that OpenAI is ramping up their poaching from Apple's hardware teams... ****[**Emerson Collective****]** **🎞️****Could Netflix Win Warner Bros?** – This report would sure like us to believe it's a two-horse race between the streaming giant and Paramount (with Comcast seemingly in a distant third). The playbook seems to be all about convincing WBD that a deal with them would go through regulatory easier because streaming is a more dynamic and competitive market than traditional Hollywood. But Paramount has their trump card, literally, so it's just hard to see how they don't win this. Unless the WBD board feels like they really should just sell the studio + streamer and let the networks spin-out in to their own entity to be sold at a later point – i.e. can Netflix make a partial deal that's better than what Paramount is offering for _the whole company_ right now? The fact that Netflix's own investors don't seem to love the prospects of this deal is interesting too... Updated "sweetened" bids are due on Monday. ****[**New York Post****]** **📺****Warner Bros Discovery Wants to Make HBO, HBO Again** – Speaking of, after years of trying (and failing) to turn HBO into Netflix – doing basically everything to destroy the brand in the process (to be fair, this was mostly AT&T), including burying it in the most MAXimum way possible, WBD now seems set on reverting everything, from the branding on down. Of course, the world is quite different than when HBO rose to power – least of which because Apple and others have stepped in to fill some of the HBO-shaped hole – and it's not just streaming, but the fact that movies themselves play a different role with the brand (i.e. HBO is no longer the place you go to see movies at home first after theatrical runs and video store rentals). "Prestige TV", which HBO more or less started, has now mainly subsumed everything. All of this sounds good – including using "Max Originals" for the more regular cadence shows – but it's sort of humorous that it's happening just as someone new is going to buy the brand _yet again_. Will they monkey with that swing? Probably! Will it ironically be Netflix? Maybe! ****[**THR****]** **📲****The iOS 'Snow Leopard' Moment** – Mark Gurman says the next iteration of iOS – iOS 27 – will be more about cleaning up and streamlining the OS, just as Apple has done from time to time with macOS in the past. Feels like a good thing, but also a _necessary_ thing as operating systems age and naturally gather cruft. It also should give Apple a way to refocus around AI, as many such features and work will presumably be under-the-hood as well (and will start rolling out with iOS 26.4 in the Spring). And though it's not mentioned, one presumes Apple also has to do some interesting work to get the OS ready for the forthcoming 'iPhone Fold'. No one is really talking about the software, but presumably it will run "straight up" iOS on the front screen and some sort of new, expanded version when unfolded. Or could it unfold into iPadOS? Would that be too jarring for people? **One more thing** : Gurman also refutes the _FT_ report that Tim Cook could retire in the first half of next year. We'll see. I still think it was a trial balloon floated by _someone_. ****[**Bloomberg****🔒]** * * * ### I Wrote... NVIDIA’s “Delight”Passive-aggressive tweets aside, NVIDIA has a point, but also a potential problem…SpyglassM.G. SieglerBig Tech’s Wild Market Cap Ride3 different leaders of the 6 this year, Google soon to be a 4th?SpyglassM.G. Siegler * * * ### I Quote... > "Let’s be very clear: What Sam does, I cannot do. There’s so much to do just on my scope that I think I have a decade or more of things that I can do just right there. And I’m telling you, we need all of us. We need Sam so badly. We need me." – **Fidji Simo** , when asked directly by Zoë Schiffer for a _Wired_ profile if she would ever "consider becoming CEO of the whole company?" It's a good answer, in that I believe it to be true and sincere. As has been proven time and again, no one can cut deals and raise money quite like Sam Altman. But it's also not a "no." My suspicion, from the get go, is that this remains the long-term plan. If and when OpenAI goes public, who is CEO of the company? * * * ### Asides... * Forget context windows and focus on the historical **context** for the current **AI Bubble**. ****[**Crazy Stupid Tech****]** * You know what might be slightly worse than the guy who correctly shorted the housing bubble calling your company into question? _The guy who correctly shorted Enron_. Yes, _another_ Enron reference. **Jim Chanos** seems skeptical about some of the elements surrounding **NVIDIA** too... ****[**Yahoo Finance****]** * An **AI-powered morning brief** from **Meta**? I see the copiers are working again in Menlo Park. But the target has shifted from Snap to the new relevant competition (with the antitrust case in the rearview). ****[**WaPo****🔒]** * Why did Apple yank _yet another_ show off of **Apple TV** right ahead of its premiere? This time it wasn't political, it was apparently **plagiarism**. With the entire season already wrapped! Yikes. ****[**9to5Mac****]** * **Apple** may be poised to become the **world's top smartphone maker** again, overtaking Samsung for _the first time since 2011_ – 14 years! It looks like a good mixture of the iPhone 17 + natural upgrade timing for many. Look for another EU investigation to begin in 3... 2... ****[**Bloomberg****🔒]** * The new head of feature film development for Paramount? **President Trump**. As he seemingly just got the **_Rush Hour_** franchise resurrected on a whim (and perhaps as a favor to director Brett Ratner). ****[**Variety****]** * **DOGE**? **"That doesn't exist."** Okay then, thanks for playing and paying everyone. Who could have known? Except everyone. ****[**Reuters****]** * A good look at the current state of the broader **AI race** between the **US** and **China**. The US is still in the lead, but China seems to be executing upon the fast-follower model well – with the full weight of the government. ****[**WSJ****🔒]** * I forgot to link to the **humanoid robot** built by a team in Russia falling on its face during a strange **demo** a couple weeks back**.** It was too on the nose. ****[**NYT****]** * How many **data centers** does **Amazon** have out there in the world to power AWS? Perhaps _over 900_ in over 50 countries – some their own, some that they partner with others to give themselves extra capacity. ****[**Bloomberg****🔒]** * Meanwhile, **Meta** using some financial maneuvers to ensure some **data center debt** stays off their books could backfire... ****[**WSJ****🔒]** * They're also entering the **power trading** market, which allows them to commit to big power deals, but hedge the risk. ****[**Bloomberg****🔒]** * Is "**Aluminium OS** " a sort of AI-first new **ChromeOS/Android hybrid** that **Google** is working towards in their unification push? ****[**Android Authority****]** * More smoke behind the notion that **Netflix** might backtrack on their anti-**theatrical** release strategy (something I predicted would eventually happen a year ago). If they were to win the Warner bid, Ted Sarandos might use it as cover for a bigger push, postulates Matt Belloni. ****[**Puck****🔒]** * Speaking of, a nice, fun **profile** about lawyer-turned-reporter **Belloni**. ****[**NYT****]** * Speaking of **HBO** and regular cadence, after **_House of the Dragon_** season 3 and _**A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms**_ season 1 hit in 2026, it seems like we'll have _AKofSK_ season 2 in 2027 and then _HotD_ season 4 in 2028. Good to see some actual _planning_ and spreading things out a bit more evenly... But again, an acquisition could shake up this snow globe! ****[**THR****]** * I was lucky enough to visit a **Tekserve** in NYC once back in 2013 (before they shut down in 2016). It was awesome. Almost an anti-Apple Store, while still being an Apple store. Amazing that founder **David Lerner** originally wanted to call it "Three Ring Circuits" (but his partners wouldn't let him). RIP.****[**NYT****]** * * * ### I Also Wrote... Failing to Realize Why Modern Antitrust Keeps FailingTim Wu is back with another misguided op-ed…SpyglassM.G. Siegler‘Pluribus’ as AI AllegoryNot sure that was the intent, but it feels like a commentary on LLMs…SpyglassM.G. Siegler * * * ### I Spy... While OpenAI itself may not carry a ton of debt (they just have a relatively small credit line, which they haven't drawn), everyone is well aware that their partners are loading up to the hilt. Why? To build data centers for OpenAI. As we've discussed, as a (highly) unprofitable startup, OpenAI would have trouble getting access to such debt – certainly not with the ease that Amazon and Meta and Google can – so they're leveraging their partners, coming up with "new ideas" for financing. That includes, by the way, the data centers OpenAI intends to operate themselves. Who is paying for that? Likely NVIDIA. Humorously, this likely came together to combat Google, but also to prevent OpenAI from going down the TPU path with them... Anyway, it's rather remarkable to see the partners' debt for OpenAI data centers so cleanly laid out in visual form. As is this: > The $100bn of bonds, bank loans and private credit deals tied to OpenAI are equivalent to the net debt directly held by the six largest corporate borrowers in the world — including carmakers Volkswagen and Toyota and telecoms groups AT&T and Comcast — according to a 2024 report by asset manager Janus Henderson. Private Credit. SPVs. The race is on to get this all working – at least somewhat economically – before the inevitable burst... Also to just get them working, period. The shortages – from power on down – are starting to mount. As such, so is the pressure.