Erik Meyersson
@meyersson.bsky.social
Chief Emerging Markets Strategist at SEB. Macro, markets, and geopolitics. Personal account, views are my own.
For more see our latest reports on the conflict:
"The Russo-Ukrainian War in 2026," Sep 2nd 2025, SEB CEEMEA Outlook,
research.sebgroup.com/api/attachme...
"The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Droning Into 2026", SEB Conflict Update, Sep 16th 2025, research.sebgroup.com/api/attachme...
"The Russo-Ukrainian War in 2026," Sep 2nd 2025, SEB CEEMEA Outlook,
research.sebgroup.com/api/attachme...
"The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Droning Into 2026", SEB Conflict Update, Sep 16th 2025, research.sebgroup.com/api/attachme...
October 21, 2025 at 4:23 PM
For more see our latest reports on the conflict:
"The Russo-Ukrainian War in 2026," Sep 2nd 2025, SEB CEEMEA Outlook,
research.sebgroup.com/api/attachme...
"The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Droning Into 2026", SEB Conflict Update, Sep 16th 2025, research.sebgroup.com/api/attachme...
"The Russo-Ukrainian War in 2026," Sep 2nd 2025, SEB CEEMEA Outlook,
research.sebgroup.com/api/attachme...
"The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Droning Into 2026", SEB Conflict Update, Sep 16th 2025, research.sebgroup.com/api/attachme...
SEB Research's view remains that the war will continue throughout 2026, as both parties retain the capabilities, resources, and incentives to keep fighting.
October 21, 2025 at 4:23 PM
SEB Research's view remains that the war will continue throughout 2026, as both parties retain the capabilities, resources, and incentives to keep fighting.
Ukrainian bonds have rallied to their highest levels since mid-August and Polymarket bets on a ceasfire occurring in 2025 increasing to 19% and a fifty-fifth probability of it occurring in 2026.
October 21, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Ukrainian bonds have rallied to their highest levels since mid-August and Polymarket bets on a ceasfire occurring in 2025 increasing to 19% and a fifty-fifth probability of it occurring in 2026.
3) As the US equivocates on sending cruise missiles to Ukraine and reports of a Budapest meeting between Putin and Trump, markets are repricing the probability of a ceasefire...
October 21, 2025 at 4:23 PM
3) As the US equivocates on sending cruise missiles to Ukraine and reports of a Budapest meeting between Putin and Trump, markets are repricing the probability of a ceasefire...
This has resulted in blackouts and heavy damage to critical facilities, just temperatures drop and nights get longer.
October 21, 2025 at 4:23 PM
This has resulted in blackouts and heavy damage to critical facilities, just temperatures drop and nights get longer.
2) During the past week Ukraine experienced the largest number of non-intercepted ballistic missile strikes since the war started, and Russia has in recent weeks ramped up attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure ahead of winter...
October 21, 2025 at 4:23 PM
2) During the past week Ukraine experienced the largest number of non-intercepted ballistic missile strikes since the war started, and Russia has in recent weeks ramped up attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure ahead of winter...
Diesel inflation is also seeing higher momentum, albeit less so. A limited weight in the overall CPI basket implies aggregate inflation effects still remain muted.
October 21, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Diesel inflation is also seeing higher momentum, albeit less so. A limited weight in the overall CPI basket implies aggregate inflation effects still remain muted.
... or will it drift into the sphere so far populated by institutional outcasts like Haiti, Syria, Somalia, and Zimbabwe. Or can Turkey, just like China, carve out a niche where despite questionable institutional outcomes, it still attracts foreign investors?
October 21, 2025 at 4:16 PM
... or will it drift into the sphere so far populated by institutional outcasts like Haiti, Syria, Somalia, and Zimbabwe. Or can Turkey, just like China, carve out a niche where despite questionable institutional outcomes, it still attracts foreign investors?
This puts Turkey in a relatively unflattering group of countries including Algeria, Iran, Lebanon, Russia, and Uzbekistan. So what is the direction of travel? Will it move towards more standard EM institutional spaces of frontier countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Kenya...?
October 21, 2025 at 4:16 PM
This puts Turkey in a relatively unflattering group of countries including Algeria, Iran, Lebanon, Russia, and Uzbekistan. So what is the direction of travel? Will it move towards more standard EM institutional spaces of frontier countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Kenya...?
Recent institutions data from Varieties of Democracy paint a rather divergent picture. Turkey regularly scores abysmally low in terms of Rule of Law but around average in terms of property rights.
October 21, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Recent institutions data from Varieties of Democracy paint a rather divergent picture. Turkey regularly scores abysmally low in terms of Rule of Law but around average in terms of property rights.