High probabilities for large hail tomorrow according to the automatic model guidance! Source: www.stormforecast.eu

Model vertical profiles for Saturday afternoon currently depict a favourable environment for severe thunderstorms. Convective mode will probably be multicellular, with heavy rain and hail as main threats. There is still significant uncertainty about if and when Luxembourg will be affected.

Based on forecast vertical profiles, I wouldn't be surprised to see some thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon with transient supercell characteristics and some potential for a short-lived tornado in the Greater Region (decent helicity below 3 km). Dry mid-levels could be an inhibiting factor, though.

First interesting storm situation of the season is expected tomorrow. Main uncertainty will be the build-up of latent instability (cloud coverage?). If enough energy builds up, overlapping with moderate shear, some organized thunderstorms may be able to form between 14h-21h. Current model guidance 👇🏻

⚠️Potential high impact weather event to be expected tomorrow in Luxembourg! A low-pressure area is moving from the Bay of Biscay to Central Europe. The associated air mass boundary and long-lasting precipitation will affect us. Details and discussion in the info-graphic below 👇