Meithan West
@meithan.bsky.social
Multidisciplinary scientist at UNAM 🇲🇽: CFD, astrophysics, complexity science. Hobbies: spaceflight, programming, weather, aviation, Linux & FOSS, sci-fi.
Mareographic record (i.e. sea-level height) at Manzanillo on the Pacific coast of Mexico, for the past two days.
The arrival of the tsunami caused by the Kamchatka earthquake is very clear, and sea-level oscillations are still ongoing.
The arrival of the tsunami caused by the Kamchatka earthquake is very clear, and sea-level oscillations are still ongoing.
July 30, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Mareographic record (i.e. sea-level height) at Manzanillo on the Pacific coast of Mexico, for the past two days.
The arrival of the tsunami caused by the Kamchatka earthquake is very clear, and sea-level oscillations are still ongoing.
The arrival of the tsunami caused by the Kamchatka earthquake is very clear, and sea-level oscillations are still ongoing.
The ground track for the predicted reentry window of the Kosmos 482 descent vehicle.
Window is currently 11 may 2025 06:50 UTC +/- 50 hours (@marcolangbroek.bsky.social). Still a lot of uncertainty.
Window is currently 11 may 2025 06:50 UTC +/- 50 hours (@marcolangbroek.bsky.social). Still a lot of uncertainty.
May 4, 2025 at 5:39 PM
The ground track for the predicted reentry window of the Kosmos 482 descent vehicle.
Window is currently 11 may 2025 06:50 UTC +/- 50 hours (@marcolangbroek.bsky.social). Still a lot of uncertainty.
Window is currently 11 may 2025 06:50 UTC +/- 50 hours (@marcolangbroek.bsky.social). Still a lot of uncertainty.
Near maximum eclipse.
March 14, 2025 at 7:21 AM
Near maximum eclipse.
Today's update of the impact risk for 2024YR4 puts it as 268,000 +/- 207,000 (3σ) km. For the first time, the nominal closest approach distance is above 3σ.
Increasingly clear that this rock won't hit us.
Increasingly clear that this rock won't hit us.
February 23, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Today's update of the impact risk for 2024YR4 puts it as 268,000 +/- 207,000 (3σ) km. For the first time, the nominal closest approach distance is above 3σ.
Increasingly clear that this rock won't hit us.
Increasingly clear that this rock won't hit us.
The estimated impact probability of 2024YR4 has decreased significantly! It's currently at 0.36% according to JPL.
This is a strong indication that YR4 will not impact Earth in 2032, as the impact prob of non-impactors is expected to rise gradually (as it did in past weeks) and then fall suddenly.
This is a strong indication that YR4 will not impact Earth in 2032, as the impact prob of non-impactors is expected to rise gradually (as it did in past weeks) and then fall suddenly.
February 22, 2025 at 7:09 PM
The estimated impact probability of 2024YR4 has decreased significantly! It's currently at 0.36% according to JPL.
This is a strong indication that YR4 will not impact Earth in 2032, as the impact prob of non-impactors is expected to rise gradually (as it did in past weeks) and then fall suddenly.
This is a strong indication that YR4 will not impact Earth in 2032, as the impact prob of non-impactors is expected to rise gradually (as it did in past weeks) and then fall suddenly.
No significant change today in #2024YR4 's chance of impacting the Earth in 2032 -- still 2.1%.
That's largely due to the asteroid being relatively close to the Moon during these few days, and thus being pretty much unobservable (it's so faint it gets lost in the Moon's glare).
That's largely due to the asteroid being relatively close to the Moon during these few days, and thus being pretty much unobservable (it's so faint it gets lost in the Moon's glare).
February 14, 2025 at 5:47 AM
No significant change today in #2024YR4 's chance of impacting the Earth in 2032 -- still 2.1%.
That's largely due to the asteroid being relatively close to the Moon during these few days, and thus being pretty much unobservable (it's so faint it gets lost in the Moon's glare).
That's largely due to the asteroid being relatively close to the Moon during these few days, and thus being pretty much unobservable (it's so faint it gets lost in the Moon's glare).
Trump's America in an image 🙄
February 12, 2025 at 11:46 PM
Trump's America in an image 🙄
Estimated 2032 impact parameters for YR4. The nominal minimum distance has fluctuated a lot in the range ~10-270 thousand km, but the uncertainty has been steadily decreasing as more observations are added -- albeit at a diminishing rate.
Unclear whether we'll be able to know for sure by May.
Unclear whether we'll be able to know for sure by May.
February 10, 2025 at 8:13 PM
Estimated 2032 impact parameters for YR4. The nominal minimum distance has fluctuated a lot in the range ~10-270 thousand km, but the uncertainty has been steadily decreasing as more observations are added -- albeit at a diminishing rate.
Unclear whether we'll be able to know for sure by May.
Unclear whether we'll be able to know for sure by May.