This evolving alignment would likely intensify ongoing mobilizations and conflicts in Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia, and Somaliland, where geopolitical rivalries and military confrontations are escalating—particularly between the UAE–Ethiopia–RSF axis and the KSA–Egypt–Eritrea–SAF bloc.

End.

A reversal of the alignments that emerged during the latter part of Trump’s first term could see acceleration. With KSA now appearing to strengthen ties with Qatar, the shifting balance might put the UAE at a disadvantage,potentially setting off a chain reaction across North and the Horn of Africa.3

While the visit may not further deepen existing intra-GCC rivalries, and the President may prefer a more balanced posture, the competing strategic visions of these states remain fundamentally at odds—making friction within the GCC increasingly inevitable. 2

Where there is only certainty and no doubt, there is no room for mystery—and without mystery, there is no need for faith.
Let us pray, then, that God grants us a Pope… who dares to doubt."

— *Ralph Fiennes as Cardinal Lomeli, Conclave

Pope Francis also stunned the world when, with the help of his aids, he knelt to kiss the feet of South Sudan’s President Kiir, opposition leader Machar, and others—an extraordinary gesture urging them to make and keep the peace.

May his soul rest in peace!

"I am particularly close to the people of Tigray, Ethiopia, affected by a serious humanitarian crisis. Let us #PrayTogether so that the violence ceases, food and health assistance is guaranteed to all, and social harmony is restored as soon as possible."
2

These developments call for an urgent, renewed, concerted, robust, and impactful preventive and responsive interventions.

But what form should these interventions take, by whom?

Recent return to violence and external interventions in South Sudan, along with the ongoing political and security crises in Tigray, further deepening the proxy wars in the Horn of Africa involving Middle Eastern and major global powers.

This is evidenced by Turkey's mediation between Ethiopia and Somalia, and Saudi Arabia/USA's lead role in Sudan, and failure in unified Pan African approach in DRC, reflecting a concerning trend where bilateral initiatives are replacing established multilateral frameworks.

End.

Reflection 5: Extra-African actors have largely taken over regional peace initiatives that have relegated the AU and RECs to secondary roles or excluded them entirely, despite their primary mandate in conflict prevention.

These external powers have become so deeply involved that they constrain and overshadow domestic political and military forces while heavily backing warring parties, rather than helping them resolve their own challenges.

Reflection 4: The interferences of extra-regional actors escalated into proxy wars has undermined the integrity of the state in Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, Libya, and other states such as Yemen, Ukraine.

cris.unu.edu/sudan%E2%80%...

Reflection 3:
Lacking even minimal standards of international law, extra-regional powers vying for influence prioritize their interests over Africa's vital concerns, exacerbating conflicts, undermining governance, and development.

Geopolitical competition has devolved into a 'race to the bottom.'