For 3: I don't think so. Again, there's no specific marker that this is a losing (or winning) ticket. It's like looking to the sky and saying "that doesn't seem to me the place where a meteor would come and strike the Earth". Nothing about that spot seems to mark it as such.

Just my two cents!

For 2: I think it does make sense if you identify something about the race itself that may put Nibbles at a disadvantage. So, it might seem to you is that Nibbles is more impressive (speed), but it can still seem to you that Nibbles won't win if you think it's too hot today for a horse of its size.

For 1, I'm happy to say that Nibbles seems more impressive because it has the marker of being stronger. But I don't think the bump up in credence itself licences saying 'it seems Nibbles will win'. I would reserve saying that to a case where there's a marker that Nibbles is ahead in the race.

I'm also coming at this from the lit on intuitions as seemings. So, my use of 'seems' might be idiosyncratic.

What is strange (for me) is that your cases link seemings and credences in a direct way. But my impression is that seemings speak to whether something has a certain 'marker' of being true.

There already is one: bsky.app/profile/samu...

Call to action: national demonstration against budget cuts in HE, Nov 25 in The Hague. English text follows Dutch in link.
woinactie.blogspot.com/2024/11/steu...

And since no thesis can be established short of three examples, here it is

Another case in point