meff
@meff.bsky.social
Programmer, weeb, transit nerd, TTRPG. Proud cat dad.
日本語OK. 空っぽなアラサー社会人。
漫画、アニメ、読書、TRPG, コーヒーと紅茶。アニクラ⬆️⬆️
ハイキング、サイクリング
ラーメンが大好き
黒猫派
Matrix: @meff:sunadokei.party
Email / メール: meff@meff.me
Pronouns: he/him
日本語OK. 空っぽなアラサー社会人。
漫画、アニメ、読書、TRPG, コーヒーと紅茶。アニクラ⬆️⬆️
ハイキング、サイクリング
ラーメンが大好き
黒猫派
Matrix: @meff:sunadokei.party
Email / メール: meff@meff.me
Pronouns: he/him
Market manipulation can happen but there's an incentivized system of resolution which encourages each outcome holder to dispute if they feel unfair about it.
Ultimately there's no perfect way to get to the truth unless you get to it yourself. But prediction markets can be better than social media.
Ultimately there's no perfect way to get to the truth unless you get to it yourself. But prediction markets can be better than social media.
December 5, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Market manipulation can happen but there's an incentivized system of resolution which encourages each outcome holder to dispute if they feel unfair about it.
Ultimately there's no perfect way to get to the truth unless you get to it yourself. But prediction markets can be better than social media.
Ultimately there's no perfect way to get to the truth unless you get to it yourself. But prediction markets can be better than social media.
Behind a paywall but this seems to just degenerate to the average social media case of being wrong yet fishing for likes.
Resolution risk is a thing in betting markets but on Polymarket there's an oracle system where folks can dispute resolutions.
Resolution risk is a thing in betting markets but on Polymarket there's an oracle system where folks can dispute resolutions.
December 5, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Behind a paywall but this seems to just degenerate to the average social media case of being wrong yet fishing for likes.
Resolution risk is a thing in betting markets but on Polymarket there's an oracle system where folks can dispute resolutions.
Resolution risk is a thing in betting markets but on Polymarket there's an oracle system where folks can dispute resolutions.
I think with a lot of the AI water use reporting we can see this in action. The veracity of claims is ultimately less important than the philosophical position one holds. Eventually you lose the plot with what are real facts and what are bubble opinions.
December 4, 2025 at 7:44 PM
I think with a lot of the AI water use reporting we can see this in action. The veracity of claims is ultimately less important than the philosophical position one holds. Eventually you lose the plot with what are real facts and what are bubble opinions.
There's an added element of being "punished" for being wrong that's appealing in prediction markets.
A big issue with media bubbles is you can just say incorrect things that fit your bubble's opinions. Even if you're completely wrong you'll get all the likes from everyone in your bubble.
A big issue with media bubbles is you can just say incorrect things that fit your bubble's opinions. Even if you're completely wrong you'll get all the likes from everyone in your bubble.
December 4, 2025 at 7:42 PM
There's an added element of being "punished" for being wrong that's appealing in prediction markets.
A big issue with media bubbles is you can just say incorrect things that fit your bubble's opinions. Even if you're completely wrong you'll get all the likes from everyone in your bubble.
A big issue with media bubbles is you can just say incorrect things that fit your bubble's opinions. Even if you're completely wrong you'll get all the likes from everyone in your bubble.
Yeah there certainly are good ways to use the network. It's just... a lot of work. I can use that energy to do something else that brings me more joy. I think for many that's neither Twitter nor Bluesky.
November 14, 2025 at 6:08 AM
Yeah there certainly are good ways to use the network. It's just... a lot of work. I can use that energy to do something else that brings me more joy. I think for many that's neither Twitter nor Bluesky.
I joined the network when it was in referral beta and I really want it to succeed but the posts here just do not bring me joy. I can read other sites that have none of the problems of neither Twitter nor Bluesky. And if you're willing to put up with the Twitter algo, it can be beaten into shape.
November 13, 2025 at 10:22 PM
I joined the network when it was in referral beta and I really want it to succeed but the posts here just do not bring me joy. I can read other sites that have none of the problems of neither Twitter nor Bluesky. And if you're willing to put up with the Twitter algo, it can be beaten into shape.
I think the reality is users who want neither an algorithmic timeline nor Twitter's ideological bias and mobbing problem just stopped using both websites. If Bluesky is going to keep having these problems, I think it will only ever be a niche network.
November 13, 2025 at 10:21 PM
I think the reality is users who want neither an algorithmic timeline nor Twitter's ideological bias and mobbing problem just stopped using both websites. If Bluesky is going to keep having these problems, I think it will only ever be a niche network.
The incumbent progressive data has too small data sizes to make any conclusions positive or negative. At 14 / 15, that's max likelihood p = 0.933 at a 95CI (even 90) that's indistinguishable from the moderate rate (95CI - 68%, 90CI - 72%)
October 21, 2025 at 6:17 AM
The incumbent progressive data has too small data sizes to make any conclusions positive or negative. At 14 / 15, that's max likelihood p = 0.933 at a 95CI (even 90) that's indistinguishable from the moderate rate (95CI - 68%, 90CI - 72%)
Excuse me, I like to think of myself as a Big Decimal
October 17, 2025 at 10:54 PM
Excuse me, I like to think of myself as a Big Decimal
I think Doom Emacs is the hot thing these days for emacs distros. I've been told that evil mode (which is default in both Doom and Spacemacs I think) is actually a faithful recreation of vi bindings. Tbh I've been using vanilla emacs since 2004 and with LSP and tree-sitter I see no reason to leave
October 10, 2025 at 8:11 PM
I think Doom Emacs is the hot thing these days for emacs distros. I've been told that evil mode (which is default in both Doom and Spacemacs I think) is actually a faithful recreation of vi bindings. Tbh I've been using vanilla emacs since 2004 and with LSP and tree-sitter I see no reason to leave
Yeah I've abortively tried to switch out of emacs over the years, but it's so hard to switch. I guess editors are good examples of the Douglas Adams Tech Reaction meme.
October 10, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Yeah I've abortively tried to switch out of emacs over the years, but it's so hard to switch. I guess editors are good examples of the Douglas Adams Tech Reaction meme.
Come to the emacs side and you can even define your own modal editing mode 😉
github.com/meow-edit/me... is Helix / Kakoune inspired
github.com/meow-edit/me... is Helix / Kakoune inspired
GitHub - meow-edit/meow: Yet another modal editing on Emacs / 猫态编辑
Yet another modal editing on Emacs / 猫态编辑. Contribute to meow-edit/meow development by creating an account on GitHub.
github.com
October 10, 2025 at 6:49 PM
Come to the emacs side and you can even define your own modal editing mode 😉
github.com/meow-edit/me... is Helix / Kakoune inspired
github.com/meow-edit/me... is Helix / Kakoune inspired
Claude also sounds more like a STEM person and ChatGPT more like non-STEM.
ChatGPT seems to one-shot stuff occasionally faster than Claude but also goes down paths that I don't want it to go.
ChatGPT 5 vs Claude Sonnet 4.5 w/ Extended Thinking
ChatGPT seems to one-shot stuff occasionally faster than Claude but also goes down paths that I don't want it to go.
ChatGPT 5 vs Claude Sonnet 4.5 w/ Extended Thinking
October 10, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Claude also sounds more like a STEM person and ChatGPT more like non-STEM.
ChatGPT seems to one-shot stuff occasionally faster than Claude but also goes down paths that I don't want it to go.
ChatGPT 5 vs Claude Sonnet 4.5 w/ Extended Thinking
ChatGPT seems to one-shot stuff occasionally faster than Claude but also goes down paths that I don't want it to go.
ChatGPT 5 vs Claude Sonnet 4.5 w/ Extended Thinking
Yes arxiv.org/html/2310.06... RLHF decreases LLM output diversity. Optimization and safety pressures are a force working against the "usefulness" of LLMs.
Understanding the Effects of RLHF on LLM Generalisation and Diversity
arxiv.org
October 10, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Yes arxiv.org/html/2310.06... RLHF decreases LLM output diversity. Optimization and safety pressures are a force working against the "usefulness" of LLMs.
Bummed that the interest rate climate being what it is that construction is probably going to be hard to pencil out.
October 10, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Bummed that the interest rate climate being what it is that construction is probably going to be hard to pencil out.
This has long been a cultural gap among software writers. Non-deterministic algorithms have been a thing forever and they often have much better average case bounds than deterministic algorithms but a cultural reluctance with non-determinism has kept a lot of it out of software
October 9, 2025 at 9:49 PM
This has long been a cultural gap among software writers. Non-deterministic algorithms have been a thing forever and they often have much better average case bounds than deterministic algorithms but a cultural reluctance with non-determinism has kept a lot of it out of software
I do this a lot with Claude. When I want Claude to calculate something exactly (let's say how many milestones I've finished in Hollow Knight), I ask it to write a script that does the calculation and then give me the answer.
Not only does it work really well but I can audit the code.
Not only does it work really well but I can audit the code.
October 9, 2025 at 9:46 PM
I do this a lot with Claude. When I want Claude to calculate something exactly (let's say how many milestones I've finished in Hollow Knight), I ask it to write a script that does the calculation and then give me the answer.
Not only does it work really well but I can audit the code.
Not only does it work really well but I can audit the code.
I also think it's sad that only the Republicans are trying to win, albeit by lying, liberal votes while it seems like the Dems have abandoned the idea.
October 9, 2025 at 6:07 AM
I also think it's sad that only the Republicans are trying to win, albeit by lying, liberal votes while it seems like the Dems have abandoned the idea.
At this point I think the Republicans are a large enough set of interest groups that it's hard to say what the Party thinks. I agree the base does think this
October 9, 2025 at 6:06 AM
At this point I think the Republicans are a large enough set of interest groups that it's hard to say what the Party thinks. I agree the base does think this
And I definitely think there's a bubble going on but if that's the response I get, I'm going to have my doubts whether you actually believe that AI is a bubble or that you *wish* AI we're a bubble so you could relish in some schadenfreude.
October 9, 2025 at 5:41 AM
And I definitely think there's a bubble going on but if that's the response I get, I'm going to have my doubts whether you actually believe that AI is a bubble or that you *wish* AI we're a bubble so you could relish in some schadenfreude.