Miles Williams
@mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social
Denison U prof teaching #Rstats for data visualization and statistical modeling, researching int’l aid and conflict: https://milesdwilliams15.github.io/
https://mileswilliams.substack.com/
https://mileswilliams.substack.com/
As tensions ramp up between India and Pakistan, it’s worth noting that these countries have a long history of military confrontations. I put this graph together with the Militarized Interstate Events dataset (internationalconflict.ua.edu/data-download/). Periods of conflict are a regular occurrence.
May 7, 2025 at 2:39 PM
As tensions ramp up between India and Pakistan, it’s worth noting that these countries have a long history of military confrontations. I put this graph together with the Militarized Interstate Events dataset (internationalconflict.ua.edu/data-download/). Periods of conflict are a regular occurrence.
In my latest Substack I talk about BRICS and whether their proposed new currency will be bad for US $ dominance. Check it out: open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
March 13, 2025 at 3:06 PM
In my latest Substack I talk about BRICS and whether their proposed new currency will be bad for US $ dominance. Check it out: open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
It turns out that buying more U.S. exports is actually a great predictor of whether countries lower their average tariff rate on manufactured goods. For every 10x increase in U.S. exports a country buys, it lowers its tariff rate by 3 percentage points. 4/6
March 3, 2025 at 4:56 PM
It turns out that buying more U.S. exports is actually a great predictor of whether countries lower their average tariff rate on manufactured goods. For every 10x increase in U.S. exports a country buys, it lowers its tariff rate by 3 percentage points. 4/6
But while U.S. tariffs are much lower than other countries on average, when you put greater emphasis on the countries that buy U.S. exports you see convergence over time between U.S. tariffs and those of other countries. 3/6
March 3, 2025 at 4:56 PM
But while U.S. tariffs are much lower than other countries on average, when you put greater emphasis on the countries that buy U.S. exports you see convergence over time between U.S. tariffs and those of other countries. 3/6
First, it's true that the U.S. has historically maintained lower tariffs that much of the world. The attached data viz compares America's average tariff rate on manufactured goods to those of all other countries from 1990-2022. The U.S. stands out for its lower than average tariff rate. 2/6
March 3, 2025 at 4:56 PM
First, it's true that the U.S. has historically maintained lower tariffs that much of the world. The attached data viz compares America's average tariff rate on manufactured goods to those of all other countries from 1990-2022. The U.S. stands out for its lower than average tariff rate. 2/6
Out of all the countries in the world, the US votes with Russia in the UN the least frequently (less than 25% of the time since the end of the Cold War). 1/3
February 27, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Out of all the countries in the world, the US votes with Russia in the UN the least frequently (less than 25% of the time since the end of the Cold War). 1/3
How unusual is it for the U.S. to agree with Russia on UN resolutions? Since the end of WWII the U.S. voted the same way as Russia/USSR on average 20% of the time. 1/2
February 25, 2025 at 2:46 PM
How unusual is it for the U.S. to agree with Russia on UN resolutions? Since the end of WWII the U.S. voted the same way as Russia/USSR on average 20% of the time. 1/2
80 years of peace isn't actually great evidence that the likelihood of such wars has gone down. Actually, there's a 1 in 5 chance of seeing no systemic wars in 80 years by random chance.
February 24, 2025 at 5:56 PM
80 years of peace isn't actually great evidence that the likelihood of such wars has gone down. Actually, there's a 1 in 5 chance of seeing no systemic wars in 80 years by random chance.
Doing things in America’s national interest is a good predictor of how much U.S. aid countries receive, historically. For example: countries that buy more U.S. exports can expect to get more aid (at least they used to). See below figure.
February 13, 2025 at 6:46 PM
Doing things in America’s national interest is a good predictor of how much U.S. aid countries receive, historically. For example: countries that buy more U.S. exports can expect to get more aid (at least they used to). See below figure.
I’m on a foreign aid kick. In my Substack tomorrow I tackle the question of who gets more aid from the U.S. The answer: countries that do stuff that serves America’s interests.
mileswilliams.substack.com
mileswilliams.substack.com
February 12, 2025 at 9:08 PM
I’m on a foreign aid kick. In my Substack tomorrow I tackle the question of who gets more aid from the U.S. The answer: countries that do stuff that serves America’s interests.
mileswilliams.substack.com
mileswilliams.substack.com
While the US spent more than a $100 billion on aid — once upon a time — it spent more than 5 times this on defense, and much much more across the whole range of gov’t expenditures. That’s a small line item on the budget that was yielding great returns to US interests.
February 10, 2025 at 10:27 PM
While the US spent more than a $100 billion on aid — once upon a time — it spent more than 5 times this on defense, and much much more across the whole range of gov’t expenditures. That’s a small line item on the budget that was yielding great returns to US interests.
ICYMI: I wrote about how the absence of U.S. foreign aid doesn’t mean that all development relevant financing from the U.S. has disappeared. Net FDI far outpaces net aid over time. (See attached figure) 1/2
February 7, 2025 at 4:39 PM
ICYMI: I wrote about how the absence of U.S. foreign aid doesn’t mean that all development relevant financing from the U.S. has disappeared. Net FDI far outpaces net aid over time. (See attached figure) 1/2
...the trade balance goes down, too. 3/4
February 3, 2025 at 4:58 PM
...the trade balance goes down, too. 3/4
Not only are both imports and exports down in years that the U.S. increases its tariffs... 2/4
February 3, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Not only are both imports and exports down in years that the U.S. increases its tariffs... 2/4
The overall story of U.S. trade has a positive trajectory. But the scale of this trade means that even relatively minor ups and downs make for absolutely large changes. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico might not reverse these trends, but they’ll shortchange these trends by 10s of billions of dollars.
February 1, 2025 at 10:51 PM
The overall story of U.S. trade has a positive trajectory. But the scale of this trade means that even relatively minor ups and downs make for absolutely large changes. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico might not reverse these trends, but they’ll shortchange these trends by 10s of billions of dollars.
Mulling over my Monday post for Foreign Figures (mileswilliams.substack.com). I wanted to take a look at the link between US tariffs and imports and exports. I stumbled onto this finding, and I’m not sure yet what to make of it. 1/2
January 31, 2025 at 9:01 PM
Mulling over my Monday post for Foreign Figures (mileswilliams.substack.com). I wanted to take a look at the link between US tariffs and imports and exports. I stumbled onto this finding, and I’m not sure yet what to make of it. 1/2
In my latest Substack I use some Kiel Institute data to break down US aid to Ukraine and put it in context with the giving of other donors as well.
open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
January 30, 2025 at 2:42 PM
In my latest Substack I use some Kiel Institute data to break down US aid to Ukraine and put it in context with the giving of other donors as well.
open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
Amid the chaos related to the US foreign aid freeze, I wanted to check out some fresh Kiel Institute data for tomorrow’s Foreign Figures post. This #dataviz offers a preview. The US is responsible for 100s of Bns in aid to Ukraine. A sudden freeze would be a destabilizing shock to the status quo.
January 29, 2025 at 4:51 PM
Amid the chaos related to the US foreign aid freeze, I wanted to check out some fresh Kiel Institute data for tomorrow’s Foreign Figures post. This #dataviz offers a preview. The US is responsible for 100s of Bns in aid to Ukraine. A sudden freeze would be a destabilizing shock to the status quo.
USAID, which was the main target of Trump’s freeze to US foreign assistance, is the responsible for the greatest amount of Ukrainian aid. [data from foreignassistance.gov ]
I'll break down US aid to Ukraine from many more angles later this week in by Substack: mileswilliams.substack.com
I'll break down US aid to Ukraine from many more angles later this week in by Substack: mileswilliams.substack.com
January 26, 2025 at 9:34 PM
USAID, which was the main target of Trump’s freeze to US foreign assistance, is the responsible for the greatest amount of Ukrainian aid. [data from foreignassistance.gov ]
I'll break down US aid to Ukraine from many more angles later this week in by Substack: mileswilliams.substack.com
I'll break down US aid to Ukraine from many more angles later this week in by Substack: mileswilliams.substack.com
I’ve got Greenland on my mind for my Monday Substack. The gist: Greenland is vital for U.S. national security, but the U.S. already reaps the benefits — no need to shake things up.
open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
January 25, 2025 at 3:48 PM
I’ve got Greenland on my mind for my Monday Substack. The gist: Greenland is vital for U.S. national security, but the U.S. already reaps the benefits — no need to shake things up.
open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
The US doesn't need to possess Greenland to use it for national security. Using the {troopdata} #rstats package, I made this #dataviz of U.S. troops stationed in Greenland from 1950 to 2024. US troops are already there. Might make a good basis for a post on my Substack: mileswilliams.substack.com
January 24, 2025 at 3:32 AM
The US doesn't need to possess Greenland to use it for national security. Using the {troopdata} #rstats package, I made this #dataviz of U.S. troops stationed in Greenland from 1950 to 2024. US troops are already there. Might make a good basis for a post on my Substack: mileswilliams.substack.com
A nugget from Thursday’s forthcoming post for Foreign Figures (mileswilliams.substack.com). As Trump calls for a freeze on all US foreign assistance, here’s a little reminder that a zero-sum mindset on aid to Ukraine just doesn’t square with the data.
January 22, 2025 at 5:44 PM
A nugget from Thursday’s forthcoming post for Foreign Figures (mileswilliams.substack.com). As Trump calls for a freeze on all US foreign assistance, here’s a little reminder that a zero-sum mindset on aid to Ukraine just doesn’t square with the data.
I caught an error in a previous version of this post (I’m only human). Once I fixed it, US aid looks way less zero-sum. This data viz says it all. US obligations independent of aid to Ukraine didn’t really change even as the US sent billions more $ to Kyiv. #dataviz
open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
January 21, 2025 at 12:32 AM
I caught an error in a previous version of this post (I’m only human). Once I fixed it, US aid looks way less zero-sum. This data viz says it all. US obligations independent of aid to Ukraine didn’t really change even as the US sent billions more $ to Kyiv. #dataviz
open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
Coming tomorrow on Foreign Figures (mileswilliams.substack.com).
January 19, 2025 at 10:02 PM
Coming tomorrow on Foreign Figures (mileswilliams.substack.com).
U.S. aid to Ukraine has far surpassed U.S. giving to any other country since 2022. The orange line is aid to Ukraine in billions of dollars. The blue lines represent aid to all other individual countries in the U.S. foreign assistance database. More to come on by substack: mileswilliams.substack.com
January 18, 2025 at 6:15 PM
U.S. aid to Ukraine has far surpassed U.S. giving to any other country since 2022. The orange line is aid to Ukraine in billions of dollars. The blue lines represent aid to all other individual countries in the U.S. foreign assistance database. More to come on by substack: mileswilliams.substack.com