Maya Ungar
@mayaungar.bsky.social
posting about all things UN & international conflict 🕊// currently UN Analyst at International Crisis Group (@crisisgroup.org) // she/her // all views are my own
There is still some (slim) hope of a deal within the next 30 days. And, world leaders descending on NY later this month for a week of UNGA diplomacy could be an opportunity.
For more details, check out @crisisgroup.org’s most recent article. (9/9)
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
For more details, check out @crisisgroup.org’s most recent article. (9/9)
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
Iran Sanctions Snapback at the UN | International Crisis Group
The UK, France and Germany are preparing to trigger reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran unless Tehran agrees to restore international monitoring and negotiate restrictions on its nuclear program. In ...
www.crisisgroup.org
August 28, 2025 at 4:29 PM
There is still some (slim) hope of a deal within the next 30 days. And, world leaders descending on NY later this month for a week of UNGA diplomacy could be an opportunity.
For more details, check out @crisisgroup.org’s most recent article. (9/9)
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
For more details, check out @crisisgroup.org’s most recent article. (9/9)
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
This could lead to some states recognizing the legitimacy of the sanctions, and others not
That raises the question of whether or not Iran will feel the need to withdraw from the NPT, as they have threatened.
Withdrawal could trigger a significant response from Israel/US.
That raises the question of whether or not Iran will feel the need to withdraw from the NPT, as they have threatened.
Withdrawal could trigger a significant response from Israel/US.
August 28, 2025 at 4:29 PM
This could lead to some states recognizing the legitimacy of the sanctions, and others not
That raises the question of whether or not Iran will feel the need to withdraw from the NPT, as they have threatened.
Withdrawal could trigger a significant response from Israel/US.
That raises the question of whether or not Iran will feel the need to withdraw from the NPT, as they have threatened.
Withdrawal could trigger a significant response from Israel/US.
Russia is likely to also try to block the monitoring of sanctions on Iran, including by:
2⃣ putting a hold on the appointment of a chair to oversee the sanctions committee
2⃣ blocking the appointment of a Panel of Experts to monitor the sanctions.
2⃣ putting a hold on the appointment of a chair to oversee the sanctions committee
2⃣ blocking the appointment of a Panel of Experts to monitor the sanctions.
August 28, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Russia is likely to also try to block the monitoring of sanctions on Iran, including by:
2⃣ putting a hold on the appointment of a chair to oversee the sanctions committee
2⃣ blocking the appointment of a Panel of Experts to monitor the sanctions.
2⃣ putting a hold on the appointment of a chair to oversee the sanctions committee
2⃣ blocking the appointment of a Panel of Experts to monitor the sanctions.
The E3 have not withdrawn from the JCPOA, but Rus is arguing that the E3 “chronically violated that resolution and the JCPOA; therefore, they no longer have any right to engage that mechanism”.
No surprise, but the E3 strongly disagree.
docs.un.org/en/S/PV.9944
No surprise, but the E3 strongly disagree.
docs.un.org/en/S/PV.9944
August 28, 2025 at 4:29 PM
The E3 have not withdrawn from the JCPOA, but Rus is arguing that the E3 “chronically violated that resolution and the JCPOA; therefore, they no longer have any right to engage that mechanism”.
No surprise, but the E3 strongly disagree.
docs.un.org/en/S/PV.9944
No surprise, but the E3 strongly disagree.
docs.un.org/en/S/PV.9944
If this does happen, it is likely to be contested. Rus has already laid the groundwork to try to delegitimize the E3 right to snapback
How can they do so? In 2020, the U.S. tried to snapback sanctions but other states denied them (since they withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018)
How can they do so? In 2020, the U.S. tried to snapback sanctions but other states denied them (since they withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018)
August 28, 2025 at 4:29 PM
If this does happen, it is likely to be contested. Rus has already laid the groundwork to try to delegitimize the E3 right to snapback
How can they do so? In 2020, the U.S. tried to snapback sanctions but other states denied them (since they withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018)
How can they do so? In 2020, the U.S. tried to snapback sanctions but other states denied them (since they withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018)
Then, parties have 30 days (from the original notification) for last-ditch diplomacy before a vote.
If the vote is vetoed, or fails to gain the necessary 9 votes to pass, then snapback commences and all pre-2015 sanctions on Iran are restored.
👇 below for list of sanctions👇
If the vote is vetoed, or fails to gain the necessary 9 votes to pass, then snapback commences and all pre-2015 sanctions on Iran are restored.
👇 below for list of sanctions👇
August 28, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Then, parties have 30 days (from the original notification) for last-ditch diplomacy before a vote.
If the vote is vetoed, or fails to gain the necessary 9 votes to pass, then snapback commences and all pre-2015 sanctions on Iran are restored.
👇 below for list of sanctions👇
If the vote is vetoed, or fails to gain the necessary 9 votes to pass, then snapback commences and all pre-2015 sanctions on Iran are restored.
👇 below for list of sanctions👇
Today, the E3 (🇫🇷🇩🇪🇬🇧) triggered snapback. Here are the next steps.
First, a Council member needs to draft a resolution to essentially ignore the snapback. If no one does within ten days, the Council President (🇰🇷) will do so.
First, a Council member needs to draft a resolution to essentially ignore the snapback. If no one does within ten days, the Council President (🇰🇷) will do so.
August 28, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Today, the E3 (🇫🇷🇩🇪🇬🇧) triggered snapback. Here are the next steps.
First, a Council member needs to draft a resolution to essentially ignore the snapback. If no one does within ten days, the Council President (🇰🇷) will do so.
First, a Council member needs to draft a resolution to essentially ignore the snapback. If no one does within ten days, the Council President (🇰🇷) will do so.
Quick background — in 2015, the Council passed UNSCR 2231, endorsing the JCPOA and pausing UN sanctions on Iran.
The res included a “snapback” mechanism, allowing any of the parties (🇫🇷🇩🇪🇬🇧🇺🇸🇨🇳🇷🇺) to reinstate sanctions if there was “significant non-performance of commitments”
The res included a “snapback” mechanism, allowing any of the parties (🇫🇷🇩🇪🇬🇧🇺🇸🇨🇳🇷🇺) to reinstate sanctions if there was “significant non-performance of commitments”
August 28, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Quick background — in 2015, the Council passed UNSCR 2231, endorsing the JCPOA and pausing UN sanctions on Iran.
The res included a “snapback” mechanism, allowing any of the parties (🇫🇷🇩🇪🇬🇧🇺🇸🇨🇳🇷🇺) to reinstate sanctions if there was “significant non-performance of commitments”
The res included a “snapback” mechanism, allowing any of the parties (🇫🇷🇩🇪🇬🇧🇺🇸🇨🇳🇷🇺) to reinstate sanctions if there was “significant non-performance of commitments”
Her recent report, "From Economy of Occupation to Economy of Genocide" appears to have been the trigger for this decisions.
This official UN report names and shames 48 corporations which "have fueled and legitimised the destruction of Palestine"👇
www.un.org/unispal/docu...
This official UN report names and shames 48 corporations which "have fueled and legitimised the destruction of Palestine"👇
www.un.org/unispal/docu...
From economy of occupation to economy of genocide - (A/HRC/59/23) Report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967 (Advance unedited...
To learn more about Special Procedures of the UN Human Rights Council and the Question of Palestine, click here to visit the dedicated webpage. Human Rights Council Fifty-ninth session 16 June–11 July...
www.un.org
July 9, 2025 at 8:59 PM
Her recent report, "From Economy of Occupation to Economy of Genocide" appears to have been the trigger for this decisions.
This official UN report names and shames 48 corporations which "have fueled and legitimised the destruction of Palestine"👇
www.un.org/unispal/docu...
This official UN report names and shames 48 corporations which "have fueled and legitimised the destruction of Palestine"👇
www.un.org/unispal/docu...