The Caerphilly by-election is yet another reminder that polls are not the be-all and end-all. Reform UK led in polls, but Plaid Cymru won comfortably. Broadcasters should remember polls are just one indicator of support. And when it comes time to vote, the outcome is often profoundly different.

Day 1 of the Future of Journalism conference 2025 at @cujournmedcul.bsky.social

It's time to get nerdy!

Third parties tend to be represented by a handful of figureheads. Major parties spread appearances across senior cabinet and shadow cabinet figures. While third parties are less visible overall, their figureheads are some of the most prominent individual politicians. (5/7)

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Broadcasters have somewhat taken into account growing public support for Reform UK and the party’s strong performance in the regional and local elections. In the last quarter of 2024, Reform UK made up just 2.5% of guests. In 2025, Reform UK appearances more than doubled to 5.9%. (4/7)

Reform UK made up only 4.7% (27) of politicians, despite gaining a total vote share of 14.3% in GE24.

The Liberal Democrats and Greens were also underrepresented, making up 8.6% (49) and 3.7% (21) of guests, respectively, against a 12.2% and 6.7% vote share (3/7)

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We analysed politicians selected across five of the UK’s most prominent political discussion programmes in the 24/25 Parliamentary season:

Any Questions (BBC Radio 4), Peston (ITV), Question Time (BBC), Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg (BBC) and Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips (Sky News) (2/7)