🪅📕 The first paper copy has arrived! 📕🪅

#themeansofprediction

📆 Mark your calendars! 📆

With the publication of "Means of prediction" approaching fast, I'm looking forward to an interesting set of panel discussions and book-talks this fall - I hope to see many of you there!

Preliminary schedule of book talks:
maxkasy.github.io/home/present...

Oops, attached the wrong abstract. Here is the correct one!

🧨 New draft dropped:🧨
"Cash Transfers,
Mental Health and Agency:
Evidence from an RCT in Germany"
maxkasy.github.io/home/files/p...

Companion paper to our paper on basic income and labor supply.
Corresponding author Freddie Schwerter (@freddieschwerter.bsky.social).
#basicincome #UBI

New Op-ed:
"Welfare for the 21st century"
www.ox.ac.uk/news/2025-07...

I discuss British welfare reform, what we have learned from #basicincome and #jobguarantee experiments, and argue that we should create a truly comprehensive safety net for all.

cc @oxfordecondept.bsky.social @INETOxford

🔥New #basicincome paper just posted:🔥

"Basic income and labor supply: Evidence from an RCT in Germany"
(maybe not the wittiest title, but descriptive...)

maxkasy.github.io/home/files/p...

Feedback welcome, this is still subject to revisions!

The publisher just sent the draft cover design for my forthcoming book.

I’d be curious to hear what associations people have with the figure in the background (in light of the title)!

🎉Just accepted at Econometrica:🎉
"Adaptive maximization of social welfare"
maxkasy.github.io/home/files/p...

(cc @ecmaeditors.bsky.social)

I have moved my open textbook on inequality research to a new address:
https://maxkasy.github.io/inequalityresearch/

(The textbook has not been updated recently, but hopefully is still useful.)

Have you ever wondered:

What is your position in the distribution of wealth?
How would you be affected by a change in wealth taxes?
How would others be affected?

Find out at wealthometer.org!

Just updated with the most recent wealth data for AT, DE, ES, IT & GR!

What are the returns to data size D, compute C, model size N in AI?
This paper estimates "production functions" - dependence of predictive loss on these params (ht Friedrich Geiecke):
https://buff.ly/2GlDsW0

Lots of interesting ramifications:
1/n

One dollar one vote?

It seems things are going well…