Matt Graham
@mattgraham.bsky.social
After a huge post-election flip in economic perceptions, I thought Democrats and Republicans might be lying to pollsters to send a partisan message — but I was wrong!
New in the Journal of Experimental Political Science (open access): doi.org/10.1017/XPS....
New in the Journal of Experimental Political Science (open access): doi.org/10.1017/XPS....
October 27, 2025 at 4:24 PM
After a huge post-election flip in economic perceptions, I thought Democrats and Republicans might be lying to pollsters to send a partisan message — but I was wrong!
New in the Journal of Experimental Political Science (open access): doi.org/10.1017/XPS....
New in the Journal of Experimental Political Science (open access): doi.org/10.1017/XPS....
This is a misinterpretation. In addition to having the LOWEST disapproval, Mamdani's high % DK indicates people don't really know what they think of him—even those who answered the Q. See my 2021 POQ, esp. Figure 4 which is about candidate approval specifically. academic.oup.com/poq/article-...
October 24, 2025 at 6:57 PM
This is a misinterpretation. In addition to having the LOWEST disapproval, Mamdani's high % DK indicates people don't really know what they think of him—even those who answered the Q. See my 2021 POQ, esp. Figure 4 which is about candidate approval specifically. academic.oup.com/poq/article-...
You’ve heard that the Economist accidentally published misinformation about the prevalence of Holocaust denial, but did you know the underlying methodological problem is super common and decades-old?
Learn more on Nov. 13: www.eventbrite.com/e/the-rare-t...
Free for students & AAPOR, $5 for others
Learn more on Nov. 13: www.eventbrite.com/e/the-rare-t...
Free for students & AAPOR, $5 for others
October 22, 2025 at 6:02 PM
You’ve heard that the Economist accidentally published misinformation about the prevalence of Holocaust denial, but did you know the underlying methodological problem is super common and decades-old?
Learn more on Nov. 13: www.eventbrite.com/e/the-rare-t...
Free for students & AAPOR, $5 for others
Learn more on Nov. 13: www.eventbrite.com/e/the-rare-t...
Free for students & AAPOR, $5 for others
Temple Political Science is hiring in International Relations, specializing in security.
Temple is Philadelphia's public university. We play an important role in our community & serve many inspiring students. Plus, Philadelphia is a great place to live. Apply!
members.apsanet.org/CAREERS/eJob...
Temple is Philadelphia's public university. We play an important role in our community & serve many inspiring students. Plus, Philadelphia is a great place to live. Apply!
members.apsanet.org/CAREERS/eJob...
October 8, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Temple Political Science is hiring in International Relations, specializing in security.
Temple is Philadelphia's public university. We play an important role in our community & serve many inspiring students. Plus, Philadelphia is a great place to live. Apply!
members.apsanet.org/CAREERS/eJob...
Temple is Philadelphia's public university. We play an important role in our community & serve many inspiring students. Plus, Philadelphia is a great place to live. Apply!
members.apsanet.org/CAREERS/eJob...
August 26, 2025 at 7:32 PM
This message from Temple's COO regarding the looming SEPTA cuts is a great example of how public transit cuts spill over onto drivers via more traffic & less parking. PUBLIC TRANSIT HELPS DRIVERS TOO!
July 18, 2025 at 1:52 PM
This message from Temple's COO regarding the looming SEPTA cuts is a great example of how public transit cuts spill over onto drivers via more traffic & less parking. PUBLIC TRANSIT HELPS DRIVERS TOO!
Survey invitations often describe the topic of the survey. A simple, classic example of how this biases results: survey recruitment materials about bird watching led to higher estimates of the % of people who engage in bird-watching. doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
July 15, 2025 at 9:30 AM
Survey invitations often describe the topic of the survey. A simple, classic example of how this biases results: survey recruitment materials about bird watching led to higher estimates of the % of people who engage in bird-watching. doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
Sounds like waste fraud & abuse to me
July 15, 2025 at 2:51 AM
Sounds like waste fraud & abuse to me
Causal evidence that "the proliferation of surveys may lead to lower response rates" doi.org/10.1093/jssa...
July 14, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Causal evidence that "the proliferation of surveys may lead to lower response rates" doi.org/10.1093/jssa...
What a lovely thing for the president to be saying to foreign leaders --- definitely doesn't make our country less safe www.cnn.com/2025/07/08/p...
July 9, 2025 at 7:13 PM
What a lovely thing for the president to be saying to foreign leaders --- definitely doesn't make our country less safe www.cnn.com/2025/07/08/p...
Conventional wisdom says transition messages increase survey breakoff. I'm skeptical but my experiments fell flat. We need better evidence—the fact that people frequently quit at transition points doesn't necessarily mean that transition messages hurt data quality!
1-pager: osf.io/preprints/os...
1-pager: osf.io/preprints/os...
June 18, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Conventional wisdom says transition messages increase survey breakoff. I'm skeptical but my experiments fell flat. We need better evidence—the fact that people frequently quit at transition points doesn't necessarily mean that transition messages hurt data quality!
1-pager: osf.io/preprints/os...
1-pager: osf.io/preprints/os...
For no reason, thinking about research on public opinion toward nuclear strikes. In short, (dis)approval depends on what you tell people about the strike.
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
doi.org/10.1086/720329
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
doi.org/10.1086/720329
June 17, 2025 at 1:05 AM
For no reason, thinking about research on public opinion toward nuclear strikes. In short, (dis)approval depends on what you tell people about the strike.
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
doi.org/10.1086/720329
doi.org/10.1017/S000...
doi.org/10.1086/720329
The reason is they do not understand the technology. Love the article but disagree with this. When the LLM prompting interface says "reading...", "thinking..." they think it is reading and thinking
June 12, 2025 at 12:03 PM
The reason is they do not understand the technology. Love the article but disagree with this. When the LLM prompting interface says "reading...", "thinking..." they think it is reading and thinking
Dorian Finney-Smith, Jarred Vanderbilt, and a conditional second round pick? Defense wins championships...
June 3, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Dorian Finney-Smith, Jarred Vanderbilt, and a conditional second round pick? Defense wins championships...
Catch questions are a popular way to detect cheating on survey questions about factual knowledge --- but they can backfire, INCREASING the proportion of respondents who look up the answer!
New in Public Opinion Quarterly (gift link): academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
New in Public Opinion Quarterly (gift link): academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
June 1, 2025 at 1:18 PM
Catch questions are a popular way to detect cheating on survey questions about factual knowledge --- but they can backfire, INCREASING the proportion of respondents who look up the answer!
New in Public Opinion Quarterly (gift link): academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
New in Public Opinion Quarterly (gift link): academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...
Polls can exaggerate partisan bias in fact-opinion discernment — even if the toplines are about right.
New in Public Opinion Quarterly (gift link): academic.oup.com/poq/advance-... @poqjournal.bsky.social
New in Public Opinion Quarterly (gift link): academic.oup.com/poq/advance-... @poqjournal.bsky.social
May 22, 2025 at 2:24 AM
Polls can exaggerate partisan bias in fact-opinion discernment — even if the toplines are about right.
New in Public Opinion Quarterly (gift link): academic.oup.com/poq/advance-... @poqjournal.bsky.social
New in Public Opinion Quarterly (gift link): academic.oup.com/poq/advance-... @poqjournal.bsky.social
Surveys sometimes exaggerate how partisan people's beliefs are. Learn from experts about their pioneering research:
www.eventbrite.com/e/partisan-e...
www.eventbrite.com/e/partisan-e...
May 20, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Surveys sometimes exaggerate how partisan people's beliefs are. Learn from experts about their pioneering research:
www.eventbrite.com/e/partisan-e...
www.eventbrite.com/e/partisan-e...
Philadelphia Inquirer knows where this story belongs
May 5, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Philadelphia Inquirer knows where this story belongs
Looking at page 40? Maybe they consider all SBE to be woke, maybe they are only cutting the parts of SBE they consider to be woke?
May 2, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Looking at page 40? Maybe they consider all SBE to be woke, maybe they are only cutting the parts of SBE they consider to be woke?
Amazing definition of hawkishness @nytimes.com
May 1, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Amazing definition of hawkishness @nytimes.com
Halfway to the Trumpcession folks
www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...
www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...
April 30, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Halfway to the Trumpcession folks
www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...
www.bea.gov/news/2025/gr...
To top it all off the DV in this unethical study was a self-reported measure of attitude change (a button you click if the post changed your mind), which is not a good way to measure persuasion! doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
April 29, 2025 at 6:33 PM
To top it all off the DV in this unethical study was a self-reported measure of attitude change (a button you click if the post changed your mind), which is not a good way to measure persuasion! doi.org/10.1093/poq/...
Suggests almost nobody has a clue, including those who said "yes" or "no"
academic.oup.com/poq/article/...
academic.oup.com/poq/article/...
April 23, 2025 at 5:25 PM
Suggests almost nobody has a clue, including those who said "yes" or "no"
academic.oup.com/poq/article/...
academic.oup.com/poq/article/...