Mathew Barlow
@mathewabarlow.bsky.social
Climate scientist at UMass Lowell: droughts, floods, extreme events, & climate change. IPCC WG1 AR6 lead author. Skunk cabbage fan. he/him/his. Shocked but not awed.
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=qWV-WIQAAAAJ&hl=e
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=qWV-WIQAAAAJ&hl=e
What a difference a day makes!
ECMWF forecast from the 18th (left) shows quite a few ensemble members well into negative territory. The forecast from the 19th (right) still shows the ensemble mean nearly making it to zero but not much movement below that.
ECMWF forecast from the 18th (left) shows quite a few ensemble members well into negative territory. The forecast from the 19th (right) still shows the ensemble mean nearly making it to zero but not much movement below that.
November 20, 2025 at 1:42 PM
What a difference a day makes!
ECMWF forecast from the 18th (left) shows quite a few ensemble members well into negative territory. The forecast from the 19th (right) still shows the ensemble mean nearly making it to zero but not much movement below that.
ECMWF forecast from the 18th (left) shows quite a few ensemble members well into negative territory. The forecast from the 19th (right) still shows the ensemble mean nearly making it to zero but not much movement below that.
Shifting more of my graphics work flow over to @blender.org - here's a first cut on the tropopause over North America. 🧪
November 20, 2025 at 2:53 AM
Shifting more of my graphics work flow over to @blender.org - here's a first cut on the tropopause over North America. 🧪
ECMWF ensembles continue confident we'll get at least very close to a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) by the end of the month, although the surface impacts will depend on the details of the event (and a significant dash of randomness).
November 18, 2025 at 6:59 PM
ECMWF ensembles continue confident we'll get at least very close to a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) by the end of the month, although the surface impacts will depend on the details of the event (and a significant dash of randomness).
Yesterday's cold air outbreak and winds in the lower stratosphere (100 hPa)
November 12, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Yesterday's cold air outbreak and winds in the lower stratosphere (100 hPa)
Interactive browser-based simulation of 2D shear instability using @visualpde.com for two related cases (1 of 2):
a line of vorticity:
visualpde.com/sim/?mini=Vk...
a line of vorticity:
visualpde.com/sim/?mini=Vk...
October 30, 2025 at 1:03 AM
Interactive browser-based simulation of 2D shear instability using @visualpde.com for two related cases (1 of 2):
a line of vorticity:
visualpde.com/sim/?mini=Vk...
a line of vorticity:
visualpde.com/sim/?mini=Vk...
Interactive browser-based simulation of 2D shear instability using @visualpde.com for two related cases (1 of 2):
a ring of vorticity
visualpde.com/sim/?mini=vQ...
a ring of vorticity
visualpde.com/sim/?mini=vQ...
October 30, 2025 at 1:03 AM
Interactive browser-based simulation of 2D shear instability using @visualpde.com for two related cases (1 of 2):
a ring of vorticity
visualpde.com/sim/?mini=vQ...
a ring of vorticity
visualpde.com/sim/?mini=vQ...
Most simply, a storm is an area of rotating winds: a disk of vorticity. Strong hurricanes can develop more of a ring-like shape in vorticity, which can be unstable & develop mesovortices.
This is a basic process & can be simulated in a barotropic or shallow water model (here, with @visualpde.com).
This is a basic process & can be simulated in a barotropic or shallow water model (here, with @visualpde.com).
October 29, 2025 at 9:28 PM
Most simply, a storm is an area of rotating winds: a disk of vorticity. Strong hurricanes can develop more of a ring-like shape in vorticity, which can be unstable & develop mesovortices.
This is a basic process & can be simulated in a barotropic or shallow water model (here, with @visualpde.com).
This is a basic process & can be simulated in a barotropic or shallow water model (here, with @visualpde.com).
Fascinated by the distinct differences in Melissa's eyewall structure between HWRF, HFSA, and HFSB
October 29, 2025 at 12:04 AM
Fascinated by the distinct differences in Melissa's eyewall structure between HWRF, HFSA, and HFSB
The US must quickly move to aid in relief and recovery efforts in Jamaica: out of simple decency in the face of catastrophe, out of care for friends and family there, and out of our shared responsibility for supercharging these events through fossil fuel emissions.
October 28, 2025 at 3:19 PM
The US must quickly move to aid in relief and recovery efforts in Jamaica: out of simple decency in the face of catastrophe, out of care for friends and family there, and out of our shared responsibility for supercharging these events through fossil fuel emissions.
Isosurfaces of 50, 60, and 70 m/s for Hurricane Melissa, from 6 UTC today (HWRF data), moving from side view to overhead view.
October 27, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Isosurfaces of 50, 60, and 70 m/s for Hurricane Melissa, from 6 UTC today (HWRF data), moving from side view to overhead view.
Witch-hazel cone gall and flower - one of New England's latest flowering plants.
October 20, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Witch-hazel cone gall and flower - one of New England's latest flowering plants.
There appears to be some sorghum randomly growing by the sidewalk in Medford. Don't think I've seen that before.
October 15, 2025 at 8:09 PM
There appears to be some sorghum randomly growing by the sidewalk in Medford. Don't think I've seen that before.
Do tropical systems ever fully merge via the Fujiwhara effect? Here's a classic example from 2022 in the Indian Ocean: TC Vernon and Invest 93S.
September 30, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Do tropical systems ever fully merge via the Fujiwhara effect? Here's a classic example from 2022 in the Indian Ocean: TC Vernon and Invest 93S.
Here's an interactive web simulation of the Fujiwhara effect, using @visualpde.com: lnkd.in/eaWCpKHF
When two areas of rotating fluid - like hurricanes in the atmosphere - get close enough, they can influence each other (the 'Fujiwhara effect'). Click to add your own vortices and see what they do.
When two areas of rotating fluid - like hurricanes in the atmosphere - get close enough, they can influence each other (the 'Fujiwhara effect'). Click to add your own vortices and see what they do.
September 26, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Here's an interactive web simulation of the Fujiwhara effect, using @visualpde.com: lnkd.in/eaWCpKHF
When two areas of rotating fluid - like hurricanes in the atmosphere - get close enough, they can influence each other (the 'Fujiwhara effect'). Click to add your own vortices and see what they do.
When two areas of rotating fluid - like hurricanes in the atmosphere - get close enough, they can influence each other (the 'Fujiwhara effect'). Click to add your own vortices and see what they do.
CPC soil moisture anomaly
droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ConditionsOu...
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soi...
droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ConditionsOu...
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soi...
September 23, 2025 at 5:03 PM
CPC soil moisture anomaly
droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ConditionsOu...
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soi...
droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ConditionsOu...
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soi...
September 23, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Slower look at initial response (adjusted with the wrench icon on the upper right)
2/2
2/2
September 12, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Slower look at initial response (adjusted with the wrench icon on the upper right)
2/2
2/2
Interactive simulation of geostrophic adjustment to an initial pulse of wind, with @visualpde.com.
You can run it interactively off a web browser: visualpde.com/sim/?mini=-1...
1/2
You can run it interactively off a web browser: visualpde.com/sim/?mini=-1...
1/2
September 12, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Interactive simulation of geostrophic adjustment to an initial pulse of wind, with @visualpde.com.
You can run it interactively off a web browser: visualpde.com/sim/?mini=-1...
1/2
You can run it interactively off a web browser: visualpde.com/sim/?mini=-1...
1/2
working on a 1D tsunami simulator using @visualpde.com
September 9, 2025 at 4:35 PM
working on a 1D tsunami simulator using @visualpde.com
Tsunami wave heights from yesterday
July 30, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Tsunami wave heights from yesterday
July 1, 2025 at 1:36 PM
development of the heat dome
June 24, 2025 at 7:42 PM
development of the heat dome
Wet bulb temperature and mid-tropospheric winds, from earth.nullschool.net
June 24, 2025 at 5:57 PM
Wet bulb temperature and mid-tropospheric winds, from earth.nullschool.net