When will the ridge finally retrograde west off the West Coast? Still lots of uncertainty from run-to-run, and amongst the ensemble means of the 3 main ensemble systems for next Friday #wawx

The long range ensembles are very bullish on a flip to a negative PNA and a wintry pattern for the PNW by early February. The exact timing of when the pacific jet retracts, and the pacific ridge forms, is still very uncertain. Hopefully models get a handle on the timing next week #wawx

Starting to snow hard near Stevens Pass. We shall see where we end up on the snow stake after this storm #wawx

Breaking the color scale on the UW WRF snow map for the WA cascades is a good sign that we are heading into a very snowy pattern #wawx

With no arctic air in sight, the WA passes will be living on the edge over the next couple of weeks between rain, freezing rain, and snow. With 5-10+ inches of liquid equivalent, there's going to be some exciting weather. Models are optimistic for majority snow at this time

Great trends over the last 24 hours in the ECMWF Ens. Yesterday, about half of ensemble members flatlined snow accumulation after Wednesday at Stevens Pass through the 27th. Today, nearly all members show a snowy pattern returning around the 22nd. Why? The pacific jet could extend our way #wawx

Ouch, really horrible trends in the ensembles over the last 24 hours if you want snow in the PNW. All ensemble systems want to rebuild the west coast ridge next week and keep it around through at least Christmas. #wawx

Models are trending snowier with each run for the cascades this weekend. Pattern shift by the middle of next week still on track, but details are uncertain at this point. Fortunately the PNA is forecast to be near neutral or negative through early January. #wawx

There hasn’t been any new snow at Stevens Pass since the 26th, but the snow hiatus won’t last forever. There should be a rain to snow event this weekend, followed by a much more active pattern beginning around the 11th. A much needed pattern change is coming #wawx

The death ridge for skiers in the PNW looks awful for the next 10 days at least. At least the latest GEFS has a more favorable pattern in 12 days. Hope this model trend of retrograding the ridge west holds #wawx

Pretty scary out here on Squak Mountain in Issaquah. Trees and power lines down everywhere you look. My neighbors and I helped clear a lane on the road outside my house for emergency access. #wawx