Mary Stegmaier
@marystegmaier.bsky.social
Professor & Vice Provost for International Programs, University of Missouri, International elections, forecasting & post-communist politics
Reposted by Mary Stegmaier
At the start of the term, voters seemed skeptical of the “iron rule” of midterm loss. More recent data from @verasight.io paints a more complex picture. Check out our (@marystegmaier.bsky.social & Mike Lewis-Beck) new piece @center4politics.bsky.social
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
centerforpolitics.org
November 21, 2025 at 4:09 PM
At the start of the term, voters seemed skeptical of the “iron rule” of midterm loss. More recent data from @verasight.io paints a more complex picture. Check out our (@marystegmaier.bsky.social & Mike Lewis-Beck) new piece @center4politics.bsky.social
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
Reposted by Mary Stegmaier
Great @pol4casting.bsky.social business meeting at @apsa.bsky.social !
September 14, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Great @pol4casting.bsky.social business meeting at @apsa.bsky.social !
Reposted by Mary Stegmaier
Don’t forget our @pol4casting.bsky.social business meeting today at 12:00 PM PDT in Marriott Vancouver Pinnacle Downtown dundarave
All @apsa.bsky.social members are welcome ! Feel free to attend and become a @pol4casting.bsky.social member!
All @apsa.bsky.social members are welcome ! Feel free to attend and become a @pol4casting.bsky.social member!
September 13, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Don’t forget our @pol4casting.bsky.social business meeting today at 12:00 PM PDT in Marriott Vancouver Pinnacle Downtown dundarave
All @apsa.bsky.social members are welcome ! Feel free to attend and become a @pol4casting.bsky.social member!
All @apsa.bsky.social members are welcome ! Feel free to attend and become a @pol4casting.bsky.social member!
Reposted by Mary Stegmaier
1/ How does migration affect political attitudes? Using 380k obs from 104 sending & 28 receiving countries, @filipkostelka.bsky.social, Nicolas Sauger & I find some migrants’ attitudes align with locals, while others exceed origin-host context, reshaping ideological space.
👉 doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
👉 doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
September 12, 2025 at 3:45 PM
1/ How does migration affect political attitudes? Using 380k obs from 104 sending & 28 receiving countries, @filipkostelka.bsky.social, Nicolas Sauger & I find some migrants’ attitudes align with locals, while others exceed origin-host context, reshaping ideological space.
👉 doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
👉 doi.org/10.1111/ajps...
Reposted by Mary Stegmaier
It was a pleasure to chair and to be the discussant of the papers of such a wonderful @apsa.bsky.social panel! Thanks you all @hannahrajski.bsky.social @marystegmaier.bsky.social @bjerome-t.bsky.social
September 13, 2025 at 12:29 PM
It was a pleasure to chair and to be the discussant of the papers of such a wonderful @apsa.bsky.social panel! Thanks you all @hannahrajski.bsky.social @marystegmaier.bsky.social @bjerome-t.bsky.social
Reposted by Mary Stegmaier
Such a wonderful @apsa.bsky panel with @marystegmaier.bsky.social ( Chair) @bjerome-t.bsky.social @debraleiter.bsky.social Mike Lewis-Beck Thomas Gruca @peterenns.bsky.social Raymond Duch @nuraphd.bsky.social
September 13, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Such a wonderful @apsa.bsky panel with @marystegmaier.bsky.social ( Chair) @bjerome-t.bsky.social @debraleiter.bsky.social Mike Lewis-Beck Thomas Gruca @peterenns.bsky.social Raymond Duch @nuraphd.bsky.social
Reposted by Mary Stegmaier
If you want to forecast elections, read this.
Our latest election forecasting article focuses on political economy models in the US, UK, Mexico and Ghana. Check it out!
@debraleiter.bsky.social @johnkenny.bsky.social @mlewisbe.bsky.social
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
@debraleiter.bsky.social @johnkenny.bsky.social @mlewisbe.bsky.social
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Election forecasting: Political economy models
We draw globally on a major election forecasting tool, political economy models. Vote intention polls in pre-election public surveys are a widely know…
www.sciencedirect.com
March 19, 2025 at 12:01 AM
If you want to forecast elections, read this.
Reposted by Mary Stegmaier
The Midterm Loss Rule: What Do Voters Expect in 2026?
(@debraleiter.bsky.social @marystegmaier.bsky.social and Michael S. Lewis-Beck, @center4politics.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250515-top...
(@debraleiter.bsky.social @marystegmaier.bsky.social and Michael S. Lewis-Beck, @center4politics.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250515-top...
May 15, 2025 at 11:35 PM
The Midterm Loss Rule: What Do Voters Expect in 2026?
(@debraleiter.bsky.social @marystegmaier.bsky.social and Michael S. Lewis-Beck, @center4politics.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250515-top...
(@debraleiter.bsky.social @marystegmaier.bsky.social and Michael S. Lewis-Beck, @center4politics.bsky.social)
More, via Opinion Today:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250515-top...
Reposted by Mary Stegmaier
Will 2026 see the classic midterm loss? Voters aren't so sure. Using @verasight.bsky.social data, @marystegmaier.bsky.social, Michael Lewis-Beck and I see voters uncertain of the "iron law" of midterm loss. Today @center4politics.bsky.social's Crystal Ball.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
The Midterm Loss Rule: What Do Voters Expect in 2026? - Sabato's Crystal Ball
The public's early assessment of which party will win control of Congress in 2026
centerforpolitics.org
May 14, 2025 at 6:17 PM
Will 2026 see the classic midterm loss? Voters aren't so sure. Using @verasight.bsky.social data, @marystegmaier.bsky.social, Michael Lewis-Beck and I see voters uncertain of the "iron law" of midterm loss. Today @center4politics.bsky.social's Crystal Ball.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...
Delighted to see the new issue! Thanks to my co-guest editor Philippe Mongrain & all the contributors.
NEW ISSUE from @pspolisci.bsky.social -
PS: Political Science & Politics - Forecasting the 2024 US Election - Volume 58 - Issue 2 - April 2025 - cup.org/4cQo6Hz
cc @apsa.bsky.social
PS: Political Science & Politics - Forecasting the 2024 US Election - Volume 58 - Issue 2 - April 2025 - cup.org/4cQo6Hz
cc @apsa.bsky.social
April 28, 2025 at 6:08 PM
Delighted to see the new issue! Thanks to my co-guest editor Philippe Mongrain & all the contributors.
Our latest election forecasting article focuses on political economy models in the US, UK, Mexico and Ghana. Check it out!
@debraleiter.bsky.social @johnkenny.bsky.social @mlewisbe.bsky.social
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
@debraleiter.bsky.social @johnkenny.bsky.social @mlewisbe.bsky.social
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Election forecasting: Political economy models
We draw globally on a major election forecasting tool, political economy models. Vote intention polls in pre-election public surveys are a widely know…
www.sciencedirect.com
March 18, 2025 at 6:32 PM
Our latest election forecasting article focuses on political economy models in the US, UK, Mexico and Ghana. Check it out!
@debraleiter.bsky.social @johnkenny.bsky.social @mlewisbe.bsky.social
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
@debraleiter.bsky.social @johnkenny.bsky.social @mlewisbe.bsky.social
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Lots of eyes are on the German elections and how well the Christian Democrats will do. Check out our forecast online @pspolisci.bsky.social
New from @pspolisci.bsky.social -
Predicting Support for the Christian Democrats in the 2025 German Bundestag Election: A state-level approach - cup.org/3Xaf3L1
- Kamil Marcinkiewicz & @marystegmaier.bsky.social
"Our model predicts that the CDU/CSU will win between 31.5% and 34.6% of the vote"
Predicting Support for the Christian Democrats in the 2025 German Bundestag Election: A state-level approach - cup.org/3Xaf3L1
- Kamil Marcinkiewicz & @marystegmaier.bsky.social
"Our model predicts that the CDU/CSU will win between 31.5% and 34.6% of the vote"
February 23, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Lots of eyes are on the German elections and how well the Christian Democrats will do. Check out our forecast online @pspolisci.bsky.social
Excited to see our article predicting CDU/CSU support included in this German Election Forecasting symposium 🇩🇪
Online now - A Symposium Forecasting the 2025 German Election taking place THIS Sunday! Check them all out here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
@pollyvote #polisky
@pollyvote #polisky
February 20, 2025 at 6:44 PM
Excited to see our article predicting CDU/CSU support included in this German Election Forecasting symposium 🇩🇪
Reposted by Mary Stegmaier
** NEW ISSUE ALERT**
PS: Political Science & Politics January 2025 issue is published!
Check it out here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
PS: Political Science & Politics January 2025 issue is published!
Check it out here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
January 31, 2025 at 4:31 PM
** NEW ISSUE ALERT**
PS: Political Science & Politics January 2025 issue is published!
Check it out here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
PS: Political Science & Politics January 2025 issue is published!
Check it out here: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
We welcomed 3 visiting scholars from Uzbekistan to the University of Missouri for the spring semester. Our Uzbek students joined us at the reception and many wore the traditional dress from their country. 🇺🇸🇺🇿
February 1, 2025 at 3:51 PM
We welcomed 3 visiting scholars from Uzbekistan to the University of Missouri for the spring semester. Our Uzbek students joined us at the reception and many wore the traditional dress from their country. 🇺🇸🇺🇿
What a great way to cap off two days of enriching social science workshops at Nuffield College, Oxford University.
A High Table at Nuffield College can only get Higher if you share it with @laurafortunato.bsky.social and @marystegmaier.bsky.social
November 27, 2024 at 1:06 PM
What a great way to cap off two days of enriching social science workshops at Nuffield College, Oxford University.
Today Philippe Mongrain & I presented an analysis of the @pspolisci.bsky.social 2024 US election forecasts at Nuffield College, @uniofoxford.bsky.social Thanks to Ray Duch & Roberto Cerina for organizing such a fantastic workshop!
November 25, 2024 at 9:57 PM
Today Philippe Mongrain & I presented an analysis of the @pspolisci.bsky.social 2024 US election forecasts at Nuffield College, @uniofoxford.bsky.social Thanks to Ray Duch & Roberto Cerina for organizing such a fantastic workshop!
Reposted by Mary Stegmaier
East European Politics is now also on Bluesky! @eepolitics.bsky.social
East European Politics (@eepolitics.bsky.social)
Leading peer-reivewed journal on the government, politics & societies of the post-communist space. Edited by Adam Fagan, Petr Kopecky, Lenka Bustikova, Andrea L. P. Pirro
eepolitics.bsky.social
November 24, 2024 at 3:53 PM
East European Politics is now also on Bluesky! @eepolitics.bsky.social
What a great roundtable! Thanks for including me to discuss the US election forecasts published in @pspolisci.bsky.social. The introduction to the special issue (coauthored with Philippe Mongrain) is available at doi.org/10.1017/S104...
November 22, 2024 at 7:51 PM
What a great roundtable! Thanks for including me to discuss the US election forecasts published in @pspolisci.bsky.social. The introduction to the special issue (coauthored with Philippe Mongrain) is available at doi.org/10.1017/S104...