One doctor per hospital?????

Umm, tail?

You can speak for everyone in the country? WOW that makes you the ultimate foreign expert, assuming your photo is not fake like your pseudonym is

Just noticed joshkurlantzick.bsky.social who inspired this thread now has a Bluesky handle.

We agree. That was why I wrote a rejoinder to @cfr.org's shallow analysis of Burma being the next Syria. Burma will be the next Burma.

As a"tourist in active revolution zones" (not a foreign commentator?)you are able to speak for all Burma's freedom fighters through out 676,578 km of the country.

We agree.

Kawthoolei may present a clear, simple picture, but what about Chin State, where the sit-tat is effectively defeated. Can Chin Brotherhood and Chinland Council repair the damage done at least since the fighting over Matupi in June? eng.mizzima.com/2024/06/29/1...

My point in this post is that Syria's deep, historical, social, linguistic, cultural challenges have resonance with those in Burma. But like in Burma, they will not easily be resolved by seizing the capital and exiling the dictator.

I am sure the view from Kawthoolei is one of hope, an expectation of victory as the MM sit-tat falls apart, and a sense that MM will end up on a much more progressive path.

How about view from Salingyi or Kawlin, where Chinese miners destroyed all water resources? What is left for those families?

Thanks very much for your response, and the effort you put into substack.com/@burmacoupre.... I am an avid reader and appreciate your work.

But @CFR, no external force has Turkey's red/green light power. For sure China would have to be convinced NPT is not landing in pro-US hands. Beyond that, no, MAL is unlikely to disappear like Assad did.

Constant adaptation, based on listening not lecturing to warriors and war victims, might land some sort of enlightened armed group somewhere down the road to take Nay Pyi Taw by force.

One may be for armed anti-state groups to continually adapt not just tactics, but strategy, branding, leadership & image, as did HTS. Nearly four years in to Myanmar's multiple and overlapping civil wars, it is clear that a vague "federal democracy" proffered by English-speaking elites is not enough

If there are lessons to be learned from the fall of Assad for Myanmar, it is most definitely not to court dominant powers to take on battlefield roles. Where has any US or Russian intervention left a country better off for the decades of war they sustained? Worst possible scenario.

Turkey's Erdogan, no big fan of HTS in its more extremist Islamist past, may view the new more secular HTS image more favorably. And he probably sensed an irreversible realignment of power coming in the Middle East. For whatever reason, he green lighted the HTS sweep through Assad's Syria.

In the end, in 2024 as Israel hammered Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, Iran's "axis of resistance" frayed, as Russia's attention had long since turned to Ukraine.

US upped its game with massive airstrikes in 2017 and 2018 on Syrian military installations. https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/1144601/trump-orders-missile-attack-in-retaliation-for-syrian-chemical-strikes/

Then there is the US, which in 2013 supplied arms and support to some Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), predominantly Kurdish, and other rebel factions resisting Assad, particularly after allegations of chemical weapons use by the Syrian government crossed a "red line" set by President Obama.