Martin Jones
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martincjones.com
Martin Jones
@martincjones.com
1.1K followers 150 following 1.1K posts
🇦🇺/🇩🇪 climate change/energy economist and policy wonk; former academic (CEEM) and consumer advocate (CUAC); amateur footballer. Personal views. He/him.
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martincjones.com
"There could be a green national paradox. Most simply put, if one affluent nation develops a climate exceptionalism, this might stimulate the growth of nationalist sentiments that eventually fold in on the mitigation policies associated with it."
"Judging from the Swedish case, several conditions would need to be fulfilled for this to happen. First, the exceptionalist project would have to include some substantial mitigation measures, against which an opposition can react; but these would need to be limited and incomplete, leaving the foundations of a fossil fuel-based status quo in place (or else there would be no force in the opposition). Second, the project would have to speak to the ego of the nation and fan the flames of its collective narcissism. This would not necessarily have to be framed in moral terms: one could think of national climate ambitions that hark back to notions of outstanding engineering skills or entrepreneurial stardom (both of which were present in Sweden). Third, the exceptionalism would have to be predicated on the denial of parts of reality – an ideology with much greater claims than the actual climate reforms would merit. Fourth, these dynamics will more easily lend themselves to increasing nationalism if they are bound up with similar developments on the front of immigration. If these conditions are fulfilled, an ethnonationalist party in the ascendancy might have a propitious political environment for turning prior ambitions into their opposite."
August 20, 2025 at 2:39 PM
martincjones.com
In July – prior to the release of Jillian Segal's antisemitism report – the Federal Court ruled that criticism of Israel, Zionism, or the IDF did not breach the Racial Discrimination Act.

theconversation.com/australian-l...
"Parts of a speech made by Haddad that referred directly to the conduct of Israel and the Israel Defense Forces did not breach the Racial Discrimination Act because they could not reasonably be regarded as referring to Jewish people. Further, references in the speech to Zionism were regarded by the court as referring to a political ideology, rather than Jewish ethnicity. However, the court did recognise that criticism of Zionism and Israel was sometimes coded, or included subtle references to Jewish identity. Under the act, courts must carefully consider the context of relevant speech, including the tone and language used. That means blaming Jewish people for the actions of Israel or the Israeli military, for example, could in fact breach the law. "
August 15, 2025 at 8:59 AM
martincjones.com
'There are other regions in the world suffering from famine or starvation. The common denominator of all of these zones of suffering, is armed violence. The mass starvation in Gaza is the only one being the result of deliberate policy; Israeli policy.'
"Sudan, South Sudan, Myanmar, DRC are all in civil war. In Haiti there is anarchy. All of these situations might be reasonably described either as zones of zones of polycrisis, or as regions of chronic poverty (Northern Nigeria, for instance) - which itself demands a deeper explanation. By contrast, “the protracted and large-scale military operations” in Gaza that are responsible for the famine there, are not manifestations of a crisis. They are being conducted with full deliberation by Israel, a rich and fully sovereign state. Food supplies to Gaza, which are fully within Israel’s grip, are being deliberately “regulated” to a totally inadequate level. Meanwhile, water desalination facilities have been targeted by smart bombs. There is no fuel for cooking. In waging its campaign in Gaza, Israel has had the unstinting and highly public support of the mainstream of US politics and that of many countries in Europe. These are not deniable operations, as for instance the UAE’s engagement in Sudan, but publicly celebrated multi-billion dollar “aid packages”. "
July 28, 2025 at 10:54 AM
martincjones.com
Strong newsletter by Adam Tooze today: 'the famine in the Gaza Strip is not a crisis, it is deliberate murder by Israel: a policy of ethnic cleansing by means of starvation'.

adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-...
"Death by starvation in Gaza is not the collateral, unintended consequence of an obscure, anonymous, amorphous crisis. It is the results of deliberate policy on the part of the Israeli government, bent on using the resources of a highly sophisticated state to render Palestinian life in Gaza impossible."
July 28, 2025 at 10:54 AM
martincjones.com
"Along with this figure, the Centre has built the first national map of wood-heater emissions and deaths attributable to these emissions, with a resolution that can pick out clusters of suburbs most at risk." 'The south-east corner of Australia has the highest concentration of wood heaters.'
Map of south-eastern Australia showing areas of high pollution from wood heater emissions. Title: Wood heater emissions are generally highest in regional areas. Map of south-eastern Australia showing earlier-than-expected deaths per 100,000 people due to exposure to wood-heater smoke. Title: Wood smoke has the greatest public health impact in cities.
July 28, 2025 at 8:06 AM
martincjones.com
"If attitudes persist, the actual implementation of the teen social media ban will be less popular than it is in theory. It also suggests that the most accepted methods of age assurance are also the ones that place people at the greatest risk regarding their fears."
The story this tells is that Australians are most likely to hand over their ID to prove their age if asked, an age assurance method that probably carries the greatest risk of privacy and security breaches. The other methods — which most people appear to have no idea are already being used right now by companies like Meta — are less popular with people. This suggests that, if attitudes persist, the actual implementation of the teen social media ban will be less popular than it is in theory. It also suggests that the most accepted methods of age assurance are also the ones that place people at the greatest risk regarding their fears.
June 18, 2025 at 3:30 AM
martincjones.com
Australia's taxonomy is interoperable with leading global taxonomies but goes further, including by setting expectations for engagement with First Nations peoples
Why does Australia need its own taxonomy? While the European Union taxonomy is viewed by many in the market as the benchmark taxonomy, it does not cover key sectors of importance to Australia, like mining, critical minerals and agriculture. The Australian taxonomy builds and expands on the EU taxonomy’s approach while covering key sectors including green mining, metals and minerals and agriculture and has an explicit focus on credible transition activities. It is also the first taxonomy in the world to set expectations for engagement with First Nations peoples and the management of cultural heritage.
June 18, 2025 at 1:05 AM
martincjones.com
5. RBD describes the gas network liabilities being transferred to "relevant" electricity networks – all electricity networks? Just the ones overlapping with gas networks? This is a can of worms he sidesteps as a policy question.
Determining the “relevant” electricity distribution networks for steps 9 and 10 is unavoidably a question for policymakers given the distributive consequences it has on electricity consumers.
June 5, 2025 at 7:29 AM
martincjones.com
4.a. RBD proposes an interim step of creating a new financial instrument (a "delta asset") that, he thinks, will reduce the regulatory payment liabilities as they shift from the gas RAB to the electricity RAB. This is a key idea of the paper.
Because the delta asset comes with a fixed and secure income stream with no legal ties to physical assets or the risks associated with operating a gas network, the rate of return that’s bid on the delta asset can be expected to be notably lower than the rate of return provided by the regulator – that is, the AER’s weighted average cost of capital (WACC).
June 5, 2025 at 7:29 AM
martincjones.com
'Monash University researchers have published a study into how well current certification schemes ensure hydrogen made from renewable electricity actually delivers climate benefits, applying life-cycle analysis to Australia’s NEM as a case study'
fuelcellsworks.com/2025/05/30/e...
Key findings of the study: Time matching, which requires hydrogen production to align with periods of renewable electricity generation, can effectively reduce grid-related emissions. However, strict compliance demands highly flexible operations and more infrastructure - leading to higher costs and a rise in embodied emissions. Annual matching, a simpler and less stringent alternative, may help the industry scale up in the short term but does not deliver the lowest emissions outcomes. The embodied emissions - mostly associated with overseas-manufactured plant and equipment - will become increasingly significant as the hydrogen sector matures, yet are largely excluded from current certification rules. In a positive finding, the study supports the exclusion of geographic correlation in the Australian Guarantee of Origin Scheme. The analysis showed that such restrictions could undermine the broader benefits of shared, inter-regional electricity flows in the NEM.
June 2, 2025 at 1:45 AM
martincjones.com
"CHOICE has made its first designated complaint to the ACCC alleging energy retailers may be misleading or deceiving consumers in the way that they describe their plans." www.choice.com.au/consumer-adv...
May 22, 2025 at 6:20 AM
martincjones.com
'EnergyAustralia has settled a landmark greenwashing legal case, withdrawing its Go Neutral product and publishing a statement acknowledging problems with offsetting' esdnews.com.au/energyaustra... #climatechange
“EnergyAustralia today accepts the scientific consensus that these ‘offsets’ do not indefinitely remove greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, because carbon is stored in plants for a substantially shorter time than those emissions remain in the atmosphere. Storing carbon in plants is not equivalent to keeping it stored in fossil fuels (by not burning those fossil fuels in the first place).”
May 19, 2025 at 12:40 AM
martincjones.com
'Three essential shifts are required to benefit from these opportunities. These are: shifting core financial structures; shifting narratives and mindsets; and shifting industrial and financial policy'
May 14, 2025 at 4:13 AM
martincjones.com
"The current capital framework is not intended to protect the broader economy from wider climate and nature risks... There is also an assumption that market players will all be able to exit at once if market sentiment shifts, which multiple financial crises taught us is not the case."
Thus, currently the financial system is not incentivised to consider sustainability in financial decision-making. There are no capital charges on unsustainable activities because the current capital framework is not intended to protect the broader economy from wider climate and nature risks. As a result there is no incentive to exit stranded assets if they are rent bearing in the short term. And because there is a market failure to price the true cost of economic activity, climate-negative and nature-degrading activities make more money than sustainable activities, directing private capital towards anticipated profits. There is also an assumption that market players will all be able to exit at once if market sentiment shifts, which multiple financial crises taught us is not the case. From a compensation perspective, the focus on short-term financial value creation is what drives the markets. Externalities are not priced in. While early voluntary leadership can build momentum, demonstrate feasibility, and give policymakers the confidence to create more supportive enabling environments – and those shaping the agenda stand to gain early mover benefits – ultimately, transformation is only possible when voluntary leadership is supplemented by policy change.
May 14, 2025 at 4:13 AM
martincjones.com
UoM study of >5,000 people over 10 years, published today in the Lancet Public Health journal: experiencing repeated climate disasters leads to more severe and sustained effects on mental health compared to experiencing a single disaster. theconversation.com/peoples-ment...
May 1, 2025 at 6:15 AM
martincjones.com
Interesting article on preference flows at Federal elections and in recent polling, plus projections of results on Saturday under various possible flows #auspol
Table projecting the two-party vote under various proposed scenarios. ALP results range from 52.7% under 2022 preference flows to 50.1% under the flows claimed by JWS Research polling.
May 1, 2025 at 4:34 AM
martincjones.com
Microsoft is an enormous player in the CDR market
April 17, 2025 at 2:19 AM
martincjones.com
BloombergNEF: "There are at least eight broad categories for removing carbon to clean up the atmosphere, with more than 900 startups trying different approaches. The money ... has overwhelmingly backed a technique known as direct air capture, or DAC, which involves using machines to suck up carbon."
April 17, 2025 at 2:19 AM
martincjones.com
"In FY2024, a staggering 8.3 million [Safeguard Mechanism Credits] were issued from 62 facilities – equivalent to 27% of the Safeguard Mechanism’s total emissions. The energy sector made up 74%, or 6.1 million, of these issuances, followed by metals and mining companies at 1.1 million."
While baselines declined across the board under the reforms, it is crucial to note that they are set at the facility level. This means that, despite the overall downward trend, some facilities still received higher baselines, enabling them to earn credits even as their emissions rose. Shell’s Prelude FLNG, the world’s largest floating liquefied natural gas facility, generated the most SMCs at 1.1 million, accounting for 13% of the total. Interestingly, Prelude reduced its overall emissions compared to last year but still received SMCs due to an increase in its baseline – raising questions about how facility-level adjustments are being applied. In contrast, Capcoal Coal Mine, owned by Anglo Coal, tells the opposite story: its baseline was slashed by more than 50%, yet it earned 1 million SMCs (12% of the total) despite an increase in emissions. In Capcoal’s case, a previously inflated baseline, driven by an underestimation of methane emissions, meant the adjustment still left ample room to generate credits. Chevron illustrates this well. It topped the list of emitters under the framework, accounting for 12.9MtCO2e from just two facilities – constituting 9% of Safeguard emissions. Its Gorgon LNG project, one of the largest in the world, was Australia’s single biggest industrial emitter in FY2024, responsible for 6% (8.8MtCO2e) of all emissions covered by the mechanism. Emissions at Gorgon rose 7% from the prior year, yet a 10% increase in its facility-level baseline enabled the company to generate 388,803 SMCs. A similar pattern played out at Inpex’s Ichthys LNG facility, which saw a 15% increase in emissions but still received 768,900 credits after a 6% baseline rise.
April 16, 2025 at 11:54 PM
martincjones.com
My favourite* assumption remains that Australia's proposed climate policy under the Morrison government would reduce global emissions in 2050 by 15% and bring forward global net zero by 15 years. That was a ripper (but easy to spot, at least). x.com/Ninesortjam/...
April 16, 2025 at 6:16 AM
martincjones.com
Separately, one way of interpreting the claim of Australia being heavily reliant on income tax is *relative to other taxes*, rather than *relative to other countries*. It's undeniable that income tax is the largest single Australian tax by revenue. www.pbo.gov.au/about-budget...
PBO Figure 1-10: Major categories of Australian tax revenue (all governments) Shares of total
April 15, 2025 at 4:08 AM
martincjones.com
However, with only superficial work, I'm not sure whether the OG claim and Jericho's counter-claim are based on the same metric. Compare Jericho's chart with this one from the Treasury Paper – Australia and Denmark look similar in both, but Germany and the USA are *incredibly* different.
Treasury chart: Income taxes as a percentage of total taxation, selected economies, 2012
April 15, 2025 at 4:08 AM
martincjones.com
The Bezos Earth Fund is putting US$19m into research to identify genetic traits in low-methane emission cattle and sheep. www.bnef.com/news/sucgpcd...
Pie chart showing 'Livestock and Manure' are the source of 32% of global methane emissions; the single largest category.
April 9, 2025 at 2:13 AM
martincjones.com
"we demonstrate that when the damage function used in a recent IAM is estimated from empirical models augmented with global weather conditions, they reduce the welfare-optimal amount of climate change from ∼2.7 C to ∼1.7 C, which is consistent with the Paris Agreement targets."
Welfare optimal climate policy in DICE 2023 using either the standard damage function outlined in [Barrage L and Nordhaus W 2024] or the revised damage function recalculated to fit the projections of economic loss presented in figure 1 of the article.
April 2, 2025 at 12:13 AM
martincjones.com
"the current practice of including only local weather in modelling the macroeconomic impacts of climate change leads models to systematically underestimate the scale of the potential losses."
We hypothesise that global weather may impact the ability of international trade to serve as a means for economies to insulate themselves from local weather shocks. In a stable climate during any given year, a number of countries will experience favourable weather conditions while a number of others will experience relatively poorer weather. If poor weather causes adverse outcomes such as crop failures or capital loss, that country can usually rely on good conditions in other countries to import the affected commodities at a competitive price. When globally averaged weather is particularly warm or dry in a given year, it increases the likelihood of more countries experiencing poor weather simultaneously and can have a large impact on the global supply chains of important commodities and cost-push inflation (for the case of agricultural commodities, see [25, 26] for a similar argument). Future climate change increases the risk that these conditions will occur (by raising global average temperature), and accordingly including global average temperature in the regression allows the model to incorporate this risk into future projections.
April 2, 2025 at 12:13 AM