Martha Gimbel
@marthagimbel.bsky.social
Sometimes Econ, sometimes rants, sometimes both. Current Budget Lab at Yale, former CEA, JEC, DOL, SF, Indeed.
We should note that data in this space is still imperfect, and usage/exposure is still evolving. Here is a comparison of OpenAI and Anthropic's measures of exposure and usage for instance 11/
October 1, 2025 at 3:54 PM
We should note that data in this space is still imperfect, and usage/exposure is still evolving. Here is a comparison of OpenAI and Anthropic's measures of exposure and usage for instance 11/
And also duration of unemployment 10/
October 1, 2025 at 3:54 PM
And also duration of unemployment 10/
We see a similar story using Anthropic's usage data for both automation and augmentation in employment... 9/
October 1, 2025 at 3:54 PM
We see a similar story using Anthropic's usage data for both automation and augmentation in employment... 9/
And more exposed workers aren't accounting for a greater share of longer-term unemployed workers 8/
October 1, 2025 at 3:54 PM
And more exposed workers aren't accounting for a greater share of longer-term unemployed workers 8/
So far there's no sign that relatively more exposure to AI is at all impacting the share of employment in those occupations 7/
October 1, 2025 at 3:54 PM
So far there's no sign that relatively more exposure to AI is at all impacting the share of employment in those occupations 7/
If we look at how similar the occupational mix of recent college graduates is to slightly older college graduates - there may be some sign that the difference is growing? But that could be due to 1) noise 2) non-AI factors (such as a slowing labor market), not just AI 5/
October 1, 2025 at 3:54 PM
If we look at how similar the occupational mix of recent college graduates is to slightly older college graduates - there may be some sign that the difference is growing? But that could be due to 1) noise 2) non-AI factors (such as a slowing labor market), not just AI 5/
In fact, taking a closer look at recent years, the data suggests that this recent trend is not necessarily attributable to AI (Figure 2). Shifts in the occupational mix were well on their way during 2021. 4/
October 1, 2025 at 3:54 PM
In fact, taking a closer look at recent years, the data suggests that this recent trend is not necessarily attributable to AI (Figure 2). Shifts in the occupational mix were well on their way during 2021. 4/
First, we look at how quickly the overall occupational mix is changing. The job mix for AI appears to be changing faster than it has in the past, although not markedly so. BUT... 2/
October 1, 2025 at 3:54 PM
First, we look at how quickly the overall occupational mix is changing. The job mix for AI appears to be changing faster than it has in the past, although not markedly so. BUT... 2/
CBO just released a dynamic estimate and the cost of OBBBA goes from $2.4 trillion to $2.8 trillion. But by convention they don’t include the costs of interest on new debt. If they do that - cost goes to $3.4 trillion. @budgetlab.bsky.social comparable estimate was $3.5 trillion. 1/
June 17, 2025 at 7:51 PM
CBO just released a dynamic estimate and the cost of OBBBA goes from $2.4 trillion to $2.8 trillion. But by convention they don’t include the costs of interest on new debt. If they do that - cost goes to $3.4 trillion. @budgetlab.bsky.social comparable estimate was $3.5 trillion. 1/
The importance of macroeconomic feedback on the budgetary impacts of the passage of the OBBBA increases substantially over time. Averaged over the full 30 years, the increase in deficits/GDP is split about 55% due to mechanical effects and 45% to macro-dynamic effects.
June 8, 2025 at 3:07 PM
The importance of macroeconomic feedback on the budgetary impacts of the passage of the OBBBA increases substantially over time. Averaged over the full 30 years, the increase in deficits/GDP is split about 55% due to mechanical effects and 45% to macro-dynamic effects.
Because the spending is inflationary (we're not in a recession!), the Fed needs to raise interest rates to keep inflation down. That sends the Treasury yield higher.
June 8, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Because the spending is inflationary (we're not in a recession!), the Fed needs to raise interest rates to keep inflation down. That sends the Treasury yield higher.
Growth is functionally flat over 10 years (slightly negative), but by 30 years real GDP is almost 3 percent smaller as growth slows down
June 8, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Growth is functionally flat over 10 years (slightly negative), but by 30 years real GDP is almost 3 percent smaller as growth slows down
New from @budgetlab.bsky.social: there's been a lot of debate on the macroeconomic impacts of the bill. We find that passing the bill generates SMALL amounts of growth from 2025-2027...but after that it's a drag on growth
June 8, 2025 at 3:07 PM
New from @budgetlab.bsky.social: there's been a lot of debate on the macroeconomic impacts of the bill. We find that passing the bill generates SMALL amounts of growth from 2025-2027...but after that it's a drag on growth
“In terms of centuries” Oh my god he thinks he’s the God-Emperor of Dune
March 31, 2025 at 3:51 PM
“In terms of centuries” Oh my god he thinks he’s the God-Emperor of Dune
Also am dying laughing that they actually put this on air
March 28, 2025 at 1:01 AM
Also am dying laughing that they actually put this on air
So grateful to see Indeed Hiring Lab stepping in with fascinating analysis on job search among federal workers at this time. The whole thing is worth reading, but this graph gives a sense of some of who we may start losing (or have already lost) www.hiringlab.org/2025/03/25/h...
March 25, 2025 at 7:29 PM
So grateful to see Indeed Hiring Lab stepping in with fascinating analysis on job search among federal workers at this time. The whole thing is worth reading, but this graph gives a sense of some of who we may start losing (or have already lost) www.hiringlab.org/2025/03/25/h...
Oh thank god, Kendall Jenner will save us
March 8, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Oh thank god, Kendall Jenner will save us
This is not to say that DOGE is having no impact.
It is too early to tell, but it does look like unemployment insurance claims for Federal employees are creeping up above where you would expect them to be at this time of year (this is a not seasonally adjusted series). 9/
It is too early to tell, but it does look like unemployment insurance claims for Federal employees are creeping up above where you would expect them to be at this time of year (this is a not seasonally adjusted series). 9/
March 3, 2025 at 2:16 PM
This is not to say that DOGE is having no impact.
It is too early to tell, but it does look like unemployment insurance claims for Federal employees are creeping up above where you would expect them to be at this time of year (this is a not seasonally adjusted series). 9/
It is too early to tell, but it does look like unemployment insurance claims for Federal employees are creeping up above where you would expect them to be at this time of year (this is a not seasonally adjusted series). 9/
Initial claims and the insured unemployment rate have indeed been rising in Washington, D.C., and the spike in initial claims over the last two weeks does align with the timing of DOGE actions. However, both magnitudes have been relatively small. 8/
March 3, 2025 at 2:16 PM
Initial claims and the insured unemployment rate have indeed been rising in Washington, D.C., and the spike in initial claims over the last two weeks does align with the timing of DOGE actions. However, both magnitudes have been relatively small. 8/
We can also look at initial unemployment insurance claims, which would tell us if private-sector workers are starting to lose their jobs. At the national level, we so far haven’t seen any clear sign of upward movement in that number. 7/
March 3, 2025 at 2:16 PM
We can also look at initial unemployment insurance claims, which would tell us if private-sector workers are starting to lose their jobs. At the national level, we so far haven’t seen any clear sign of upward movement in that number. 7/
For context, here is what this series looked like heading into the Great Recession. 6/
March 3, 2025 at 2:16 PM
For context, here is what this series looked like heading into the Great Recession. 6/
It is thus not surprising that there do not seem to be changes in the amount of taxes being withheld for individual/FICA taxes (which would suggest a slowdown in the labor market). 5/
March 3, 2025 at 2:16 PM
It is thus not surprising that there do not seem to be changes in the amount of taxes being withheld for individual/FICA taxes (which would suggest a slowdown in the labor market). 5/
First, despite the huge disruptions to Federal agencies, the total amount DOGE has told the Federal government to stop spending is relatively small. Non-interest government spending hasn’t slowed down and in fact is still trending slightly above the last two years (as expected) 3/
March 3, 2025 at 2:16 PM
First, despite the huge disruptions to Federal agencies, the total amount DOGE has told the Federal government to stop spending is relatively small. Non-interest government spending hasn’t slowed down and in fact is still trending slightly above the last two years (as expected) 3/
Love to see @lastweektonight1.bsky.social using @ernietedeschi.bsky.social @budgetlab.bsky.social research on no tax on tips!
March 3, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Love to see @lastweektonight1.bsky.social using @ernietedeschi.bsky.social @budgetlab.bsky.social research on no tax on tips!