@marleymorris.bsky.social
The increase in people applying who arrived on visas seems to have coincided with the post-Brexit immigration system and the rise in net migration.
There has been a sharp rise in asylum applicants from people formerly on study and work visas. (Barely anyone applied from work visas before 2022)
There has been a sharp rise in asylum applicants from people formerly on study and work visas. (Barely anyone applied from work visas before 2022)
August 21, 2025 at 11:18 AM
The increase in people applying who arrived on visas seems to have coincided with the post-Brexit immigration system and the rise in net migration.
There has been a sharp rise in asylum applicants from people formerly on study and work visas. (Barely anyone applied from work visas before 2022)
There has been a sharp rise in asylum applicants from people formerly on study and work visas. (Barely anyone applied from work visas before 2022)
There are quite sharp differences in the nationalities of people applying via these routes, as is clear from the chart below.
August 21, 2025 at 11:18 AM
There are quite sharp differences in the nationalities of people applying via these routes, as is clear from the chart below.
New Home Office figures today reveal a more complex picture on asylum than often assumed.
The increase in asylum applications hides two distinct trends on asylum in recent years.
Yes there has been an increase in small boats. But also a rise in applications from people originally arriving on visas
The increase in asylum applications hides two distinct trends on asylum in recent years.
Yes there has been an increase in small boats. But also a rise in applications from people originally arriving on visas
August 21, 2025 at 11:18 AM
New Home Office figures today reveal a more complex picture on asylum than often assumed.
The increase in asylum applications hides two distinct trends on asylum in recent years.
Yes there has been an increase in small boats. But also a rise in applications from people originally arriving on visas
The increase in asylum applications hides two distinct trends on asylum in recent years.
Yes there has been an increase in small boats. But also a rise in applications from people originally arriving on visas
New stats from DWP show just under 84% of people on Universal Credit are UK citizens.
Of the remainder, most are on the EU settlement scheme.
Otherwise, only tiny numbers are on UC without being settled in the UK, primarily because they have no recourse to public funds.
Of the remainder, most are on the EU settlement scheme.
Otherwise, only tiny numbers are on UC without being settled in the UK, primarily because they have no recourse to public funds.
July 15, 2025 at 11:16 AM
New stats from DWP show just under 84% of people on Universal Credit are UK citizens.
Of the remainder, most are on the EU settlement scheme.
Otherwise, only tiny numbers are on UC without being settled in the UK, primarily because they have no recourse to public funds.
Of the remainder, most are on the EU settlement scheme.
Otherwise, only tiny numbers are on UC without being settled in the UK, primarily because they have no recourse to public funds.
New immigration reforms include an interim Temporary Shortage List, covering occupations below degree-level which govt consider important for its industrial strategy.
It's an interesting list, including lab technicians, authors, fashion designers, business sales executives, builders and decorators.
It's an interesting list, including lab technicians, authors, fashion designers, business sales executives, builders and decorators.
July 1, 2025 at 1:01 PM
New immigration reforms include an interim Temporary Shortage List, covering occupations below degree-level which govt consider important for its industrial strategy.
It's an interesting list, including lab technicians, authors, fashion designers, business sales executives, builders and decorators.
It's an interesting list, including lab technicians, authors, fashion designers, business sales executives, builders and decorators.
Net migration has fallen sharply as expected - down to 431,000 in 2024, a 50% fall from 2023. This is driven by:
- Tighter scrutiny of care visa sponsors.
- Stopping students and care workers from bringing dependants.
- Higher salary thresholds.
- Rising student emigration.
- Tighter scrutiny of care visa sponsors.
- Stopping students and care workers from bringing dependants.
- Higher salary thresholds.
- Rising student emigration.
May 22, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Net migration has fallen sharply as expected - down to 431,000 in 2024, a 50% fall from 2023. This is driven by:
- Tighter scrutiny of care visa sponsors.
- Stopping students and care workers from bringing dependants.
- Higher salary thresholds.
- Rising student emigration.
- Tighter scrutiny of care visa sponsors.
- Stopping students and care workers from bringing dependants.
- Higher salary thresholds.
- Rising student emigration.
- There will be a standard 10 year route to settlement, up from 5 years.
This will prolong people's stay on insecure status, increasing risk of poverty and inhibiting integration.
People will be able to reduce qualifying period for settlement if they demonstrate contribution.
This will prolong people's stay on insecure status, increasing risk of poverty and inhibiting integration.
People will be able to reduce qualifying period for settlement if they demonstrate contribution.
May 12, 2025 at 11:58 AM
- There will be a standard 10 year route to settlement, up from 5 years.
This will prolong people's stay on insecure status, increasing risk of poverty and inhibiting integration.
People will be able to reduce qualifying period for settlement if they demonstrate contribution.
This will prolong people's stay on insecure status, increasing risk of poverty and inhibiting integration.
People will be able to reduce qualifying period for settlement if they demonstrate contribution.
- Some promising ideas on tackling exploitation, including making it easier for migrant workers to switch employers and protecting migrant victims of domestic abuse (potentially a safe reporting mechanism, as we @ippr.bsky.social have called for)
May 12, 2025 at 11:58 AM
- Some promising ideas on tackling exploitation, including making it easier for migrant workers to switch employers and protecting migrant victims of domestic abuse (potentially a safe reporting mechanism, as we @ippr.bsky.social have called for)
On students, it looks like govt has held back from some of the major reforms suggested in the media.
Proposals mainly focus on tighter compliance requirements for universities and shortening the graduate route.
Proposals mainly focus on tighter compliance requirements for universities and shortening the graduate route.
May 12, 2025 at 11:58 AM
On students, it looks like govt has held back from some of the major reforms suggested in the media.
Proposals mainly focus on tighter compliance requirements for universities and shortening the graduate route.
Proposals mainly focus on tighter compliance requirements for universities and shortening the graduate route.
- Some welcome proposals to coordinate migration and skills policy, including:
- A new Labour Market Evidence Group to bring together relevant evidence.
- Sectors with high level of overseas recruitment will need workforce strategies to address underlying drivers of shortages.
- A new Labour Market Evidence Group to bring together relevant evidence.
- Sectors with high level of overseas recruitment will need workforce strategies to address underlying drivers of shortages.
May 12, 2025 at 11:58 AM
- Some welcome proposals to coordinate migration and skills policy, including:
- A new Labour Market Evidence Group to bring together relevant evidence.
- Sectors with high level of overseas recruitment will need workforce strategies to address underlying drivers of shortages.
- A new Labour Market Evidence Group to bring together relevant evidence.
- Sectors with high level of overseas recruitment will need workforce strategies to address underlying drivers of shortages.
- There will be a new temporary shortage list for critical jobs below degree level, provided there is a workforce strategy in place and employers are making efforts to recruit domestically.
This seems sensible, though devil will be in detail.
This seems sensible, though devil will be in detail.
May 12, 2025 at 11:58 AM
- There will be a new temporary shortage list for critical jobs below degree level, provided there is a workforce strategy in place and employers are making efforts to recruit domestically.
This seems sensible, though devil will be in detail.
This seems sensible, though devil will be in detail.
Immigration white paper a shake-up of nearly every part of the system. Headline thoughts:
- Govt raising skills threshold for Skilled Worker visa back to graduate level jobs. According to govt assessment, this is the policy with biggest impact on numbers. Hospitality likely to be most affected.
- Govt raising skills threshold for Skilled Worker visa back to graduate level jobs. According to govt assessment, this is the policy with biggest impact on numbers. Hospitality likely to be most affected.
May 12, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Immigration white paper a shake-up of nearly every part of the system. Headline thoughts:
- Govt raising skills threshold for Skilled Worker visa back to graduate level jobs. According to govt assessment, this is the policy with biggest impact on numbers. Hospitality likely to be most affected.
- Govt raising skills threshold for Skilled Worker visa back to graduate level jobs. According to govt assessment, this is the policy with biggest impact on numbers. Hospitality likely to be most affected.
Our new @ippr.bsky.social report finds over a third of children in poverty are in families with non-UK parents.
The child poverty strategy is an opportunity to address the drivers of poverty for these children, including the 'no recourse to public funds' condition. www.ippr.org/articles/hid...
The child poverty strategy is an opportunity to address the drivers of poverty for these children, including the 'no recourse to public funds' condition. www.ippr.org/articles/hid...
March 7, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Our new @ippr.bsky.social report finds over a third of children in poverty are in families with non-UK parents.
The child poverty strategy is an opportunity to address the drivers of poverty for these children, including the 'no recourse to public funds' condition. www.ippr.org/articles/hid...
The child poverty strategy is an opportunity to address the drivers of poverty for these children, including the 'no recourse to public funds' condition. www.ippr.org/articles/hid...
While backlog is down, this hasn't translated into a fall in people in hotels.
This may be because, where cases are refused, they are then appealed, and people stay in asylum accommodation during appeal.
Govt will need to grapple with this if it wants to close hotels.
This may be because, where cases are refused, they are then appealed, and people stay in asylum accommodation during appeal.
Govt will need to grapple with this if it wants to close hotels.
February 27, 2025 at 12:03 PM
While backlog is down, this hasn't translated into a fall in people in hotels.
This may be because, where cases are refused, they are then appealed, and people stay in asylum accommodation during appeal.
Govt will need to grapple with this if it wants to close hotels.
This may be because, where cases are refused, they are then appealed, and people stay in asylum accommodation during appeal.
Govt will need to grapple with this if it wants to close hotels.
Grant rate has fallen sharply from 67% in 2023 to 47% in 2024. Home Office says this could be down to new standard of proof under Nationality & Borders Act.
There have been rapid falls in grant rates for some countries - eg Afghan grant rate went from 99% in 2023 to 53% in 2024.
There have been rapid falls in grant rates for some countries - eg Afghan grant rate went from 99% in 2023 to 53% in 2024.
February 27, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Grant rate has fallen sharply from 67% in 2023 to 47% in 2024. Home Office says this could be down to new standard of proof under Nationality & Borders Act.
There have been rapid falls in grant rates for some countries - eg Afghan grant rate went from 99% in 2023 to 53% in 2024.
There have been rapid falls in grant rates for some countries - eg Afghan grant rate went from 99% in 2023 to 53% in 2024.
New figures from Home Office today with some striking figures on asylum:
- Asylum applications for 2024 are highest on record.
- Decisions have doubled in final quarter of 2024 compared to quarter before.
- Asylum backlog slowly coming down (7% fall between Sep and Dec 2024).
- Asylum applications for 2024 are highest on record.
- Decisions have doubled in final quarter of 2024 compared to quarter before.
- Asylum backlog slowly coming down (7% fall between Sep and Dec 2024).
February 27, 2025 at 12:03 PM
New figures from Home Office today with some striking figures on asylum:
- Asylum applications for 2024 are highest on record.
- Decisions have doubled in final quarter of 2024 compared to quarter before.
- Asylum backlog slowly coming down (7% fall between Sep and Dec 2024).
- Asylum applications for 2024 are highest on record.
- Decisions have doubled in final quarter of 2024 compared to quarter before.
- Asylum backlog slowly coming down (7% fall between Sep and Dec 2024).
The priority for the UK's trade relationships should clearly be the EU, given it is by far our largest trading partner. US also very important.
January 16, 2025 at 1:38 PM
The priority for the UK's trade relationships should clearly be the EU, given it is by far our largest trading partner. US also very important.
We should focus on areas of existing / potential comparative advantage - eg pharmaceuticals, areas of green manufacturing, and financial + professional services
For broad-based growth, need to focus on both goods and services, given key service exports concentrated in South East
For broad-based growth, need to focus on both goods and services, given key service exports concentrated in South East
January 16, 2025 at 1:38 PM
We should focus on areas of existing / potential comparative advantage - eg pharmaceuticals, areas of green manufacturing, and financial + professional services
For broad-based growth, need to focus on both goods and services, given key service exports concentrated in South East
For broad-based growth, need to focus on both goods and services, given key service exports concentrated in South East
A new strategy is desperately needed after a disappointing goods trade performance post-Brexit compared with G7 counterparts.
While services trade has been strong, goods trade is significantly below 2019 levels.
While services trade has been strong, goods trade is significantly below 2019 levels.
January 16, 2025 at 1:38 PM
A new strategy is desperately needed after a disappointing goods trade performance post-Brexit compared with G7 counterparts.
While services trade has been strong, goods trade is significantly below 2019 levels.
While services trade has been strong, goods trade is significantly below 2019 levels.
New report on trade strategy out today from us
@ippr.bsky.social
We argue the government needs a new trade strategy focused on:
- Green, inclusive growth
- Alignment with the UK's geopolitical priorities
- Strengthening economic resilience in key sectors
@ippr.bsky.social
We argue the government needs a new trade strategy focused on:
- Green, inclusive growth
- Alignment with the UK's geopolitical priorities
- Strengthening economic resilience in key sectors
January 16, 2025 at 1:38 PM
New report on trade strategy out today from us
@ippr.bsky.social
We argue the government needs a new trade strategy focused on:
- Green, inclusive growth
- Alignment with the UK's geopolitical priorities
- Strengthening economic resilience in key sectors
@ippr.bsky.social
We argue the government needs a new trade strategy focused on:
- Green, inclusive growth
- Alignment with the UK's geopolitical priorities
- Strengthening economic resilience in key sectors
Today's immigration stats indicate that new salary thresholds for Skilled Workers are starting to bite.
Most strikingly, there was a 70% fall in Skilled Worker visa grants in hospitality sector between Q2 and Q3 of 2024. This sector is generally low-paid so impact expected to be larger.
Most strikingly, there was a 70% fall in Skilled Worker visa grants in hospitality sector between Q2 and Q3 of 2024. This sector is generally low-paid so impact expected to be larger.
November 28, 2024 at 11:54 AM
Today's immigration stats indicate that new salary thresholds for Skilled Workers are starting to bite.
Most strikingly, there was a 70% fall in Skilled Worker visa grants in hospitality sector between Q2 and Q3 of 2024. This sector is generally low-paid so impact expected to be larger.
Most strikingly, there was a 70% fall in Skilled Worker visa grants in hospitality sector between Q2 and Q3 of 2024. This sector is generally low-paid so impact expected to be larger.
New Home Office figures suggest that Afghans were the largest number of small boat arrivals in the latest quarter (June-Sep 2024).
At the same time, the grant rate for Afghan asylum seekers has plummeted from nearly 100% to only 53% in latest quarter. This seems worrying.
At the same time, the grant rate for Afghan asylum seekers has plummeted from nearly 100% to only 53% in latest quarter. This seems worrying.
November 28, 2024 at 11:17 AM
New Home Office figures suggest that Afghans were the largest number of small boat arrivals in the latest quarter (June-Sep 2024).
At the same time, the grant rate for Afghan asylum seekers has plummeted from nearly 100% to only 53% in latest quarter. This seems worrying.
At the same time, the grant rate for Afghan asylum seekers has plummeted from nearly 100% to only 53% in latest quarter. This seems worrying.
Home Office has been on quite a journey recently. Asylum productivity surged in late 2023 as caseworkers worked through legacy backlog. Then ground to a halt in final months of last govt as Illegal Migration Act stopped most processing. Then shot up again when new govt fixed this
November 28, 2024 at 11:00 AM
Home Office has been on quite a journey recently. Asylum productivity surged in late 2023 as caseworkers worked through legacy backlog. Then ground to a halt in final months of last govt as Illegal Migration Act stopped most processing. Then shot up again when new govt fixed this