Marinus Vale
@marinusvale.bsky.social
Independent market analyst tracking uranium stocks and sector ETFs (URA, URNM, CCJ, DNN e.g.). Focused on option flows, macro trends, and cutting through the noise. Not here to sell a narrative—just reading the tape.
#Uranium equities still offer the best asymmetry. Spot holding just below $70, but summer restarts and supply constraints could push it back to $75–80. That opens up +15–20% for producers. Juniors could go parabolic on any proper catalyst.
May 1, 2025 at 5:16 PM
#Uranium equities still offer the best asymmetry. Spot holding just below $70, but summer restarts and supply constraints could push it back to $75–80. That opens up +15–20% for producers. Juniors could go parabolic on any proper catalyst.
VIX likely spikes to 30+ on Fed or data surprises, but I don’t see sustained stress unless credit spreads break out. My base case is a slow grind lower into the 20–22 zone by year-end. Episodic stress, not a regime shift.
May 1, 2025 at 5:16 PM
VIX likely spikes to 30+ on Fed or data surprises, but I don’t see sustained stress unless credit spreads break out. My base case is a slow grind lower into the 20–22 zone by year-end. Episodic stress, not a regime shift.
$DXY stuck in a 98–101 range until June/July cuts. Weakness below 98 likely only if Fed eases before ECB and trade tensions ease. That would support late-year reflation and hard assets. Upside to 103–104 only if oil crashes or tariffs flare again.
May 1, 2025 at 5:16 PM
$DXY stuck in a 98–101 range until June/July cuts. Weakness below 98 likely only if Fed eases before ECB and trade tensions ease. That would support late-year reflation and hard assets. Upside to 103–104 only if oil crashes or tariffs flare again.
Dow trades in a wide 39,000–41,500 range through Q2. Slow grind higher toward 42,500 is possible later this year if tariffs ease and the market starts pricing reflation. Downside risk to 37,000 only if Brent < $55 and ISM orders < 45.
May 1, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Dow trades in a wide 39,000–41,500 range through Q2. Slow grind higher toward 42,500 is possible later this year if tariffs ease and the market starts pricing reflation. Downside risk to 37,000 only if Brent < $55 and ISM orders < 45.
Nasdaq 100 could push 5–8% higher near 20,500 on strong Q1 earnings and summer Fed cut hopes. But from there, sideways. Slower ad cycles and tighter margins cap upside. Pullback into 19,000–19,500 zone by year-end looks more probable than a breakout.
May 1, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Nasdaq 100 could push 5–8% higher near 20,500 on strong Q1 earnings and summer Fed cut hopes. But from there, sideways. Slower ad cycles and tighter margins cap upside. Pullback into 19,000–19,500 zone by year-end looks more probable than a breakout.