E.g. the COVID shock. See www.frbsf.org/research-and...

I think productivity often goes up during big unemployment shocks because it is per-worker…

Contra dancing! Lots of other climate activists there too. (Also, reading sf & fantasy, petting cats and dogs, and once every couple of years, snorkeling)

I think this is related to the theory behind Give Directly: www.givedirectly.org

Proportional ranked choice voting: protectdemocracy.org/wp-content/u...

I could imagine that attempting to replicate stratospheric conditions on the ground could introduce additional uncertainties. Though I wonder if doing it in the plane will block sunlight exposure…

Which entrance did you try? EPA hasn’t started furloughs yet: www.reddit.com/r/fednews/co...

My preference is for highly stylized keystone GCM scenarios rather than complex IAM generated futures. Use the results to tune reduced complexity models (FaIR) and pattern scaling approaches (STITCHES) to do impact analysis on more realistic scenarios (or probabilistic like the RFF-SPs)

This also reminds me of all the people who show up after mass shootings to claim it is a mental health issue, not a gun control issue… and are then conspicuously silent when funding for mental health is threatened.

GiveWell makes the same argument, but from the defensible side of raising money to save lives efficiently, rather than attacking people for saving lives “inefficiently”

Please look at the work by GiveWell and similar organizations as the real heart of effective altruism, not the crazy longtermists.