And would likely foster a move towards deeper regionalisation. Cooperation with near neighbours will be essential to ensure a continual supply of electricity from renewables…but these new dependencies could also open up security risks

Great article! There’s also the ideological struggle between states. Proven tough to regulate at the global level when there’s such different cultural approaches to freedom of speech, data transfer etc between liberal democracies & autocracies and where social media has different effects

And also important to consider individual events in the wider context. Modelling how multiple possible scenarios could interact with each other useful for stress testing and uncovering possible systemic risks although any concrete predictions still a big gamble

Was thinking exact the same thing! Haven’t found a London one yet

Beautiful!

Haha! Apologies! I have. Liked your article. Interesting take and questions.

…End of commitment to enlightenment values & accompanying liberal dem institutions…all turbo-charged by insecure & changing global env (cc, tech, US-China) may just make authoritarians appear as paternalistic defenders if security rated over freedom?

Think the socio-cul shift from eco to eco-infomedia power (Rabie) from longer term view very significant. Polarisation, culture wars and probably even contribution to those economic voting reasons (eg by driving impact of ‘fraternal relative deprivation’)…

From ‘Economic Shocks & Populism’ in Eco Journal - maybe explains part of the Trump victory. “Negative aggregate shocks have the effect of inducing disappointment among some voters and therefore make more appealing the vote for risky parties and risky candidates.” academic.oup.com/ej/article/1...

Really interesting to see breakdown by country within Europe. Did you draw any conclusions on why eg Sweden so different to UK? Population size? Certain sector? Think both pretty similar on economic complexity, GDP per capita etc

Of course but does not mean that the system in its current form is not under stress. Technology (esp cross-border data transfers) poses a unique challenge to the system as a whole with differing cultural approaches (eg the challenges with UN Cybercrime agreement)

Although the principles still stand they are undermined in practice by eg increasingly broad use of ‘national security’ carve outs in both trade & inv law which do impact on businesses particularly those in the tech sector