Marc_Dave_Larin
@marcdavelarin.bsky.social
Freelance agro-analysist for banks and other instituitions.
Sometimes teaching past, present and future of agriculture at school.
Because, as i like to say, everything is nothing without food.
Sometimes teaching past, present and future of agriculture at school.
Because, as i like to say, everything is nothing without food.
Just like everyone else with a functional mind,
to me the relevant time frame doesn't begin with Feb 2022,
but with the robbery of Crimea at the very least.
That's why the graph's starting date of 2014.
Source: Wednesday's release from USDA - FAS ⬇️
»» Black & blue: 2nd & 3rd highest
to me the relevant time frame doesn't begin with Feb 2022,
but with the robbery of Crimea at the very least.
That's why the graph's starting date of 2014.
Source: Wednesday's release from USDA - FAS ⬇️
»» Black & blue: 2nd & 3rd highest
November 21, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Just like everyone else with a functional mind,
to me the relevant time frame doesn't begin with Feb 2022,
but with the robbery of Crimea at the very least.
That's why the graph's starting date of 2014.
Source: Wednesday's release from USDA - FAS ⬇️
»» Black & blue: 2nd & 3rd highest
to me the relevant time frame doesn't begin with Feb 2022,
but with the robbery of Crimea at the very least.
That's why the graph's starting date of 2014.
Source: Wednesday's release from USDA - FAS ⬇️
»» Black & blue: 2nd & 3rd highest
Thank you very much.
It feels like I could almost daily
- as an addition to the excellent newsletters -
shed light on another agricultural related hypocrisy
which undermines Ukraine's fight for freedom:
This August, the US bought more fertilizers from RU
than any August on record ⬇️
It feels like I could almost daily
- as an addition to the excellent newsletters -
shed light on another agricultural related hypocrisy
which undermines Ukraine's fight for freedom:
This August, the US bought more fertilizers from RU
than any August on record ⬇️
November 21, 2025 at 12:29 PM
Thank you very much.
It feels like I could almost daily
- as an addition to the excellent newsletters -
shed light on another agricultural related hypocrisy
which undermines Ukraine's fight for freedom:
This August, the US bought more fertilizers from RU
than any August on record ⬇️
It feels like I could almost daily
- as an addition to the excellent newsletters -
shed light on another agricultural related hypocrisy
which undermines Ukraine's fight for freedom:
This August, the US bought more fertilizers from RU
than any August on record ⬇️
Thank you !
On Russia's impunity & the enablers of it:
Something remarkable from China's trade data, released yesterday ⬇️
But China's total imports from RU wasn't that much higher
due to various cuts across the board ($ billion):
Oct: 10.997
Sept: 10.956
(386 M: monthly highest since 2020)
On Russia's impunity & the enablers of it:
Something remarkable from China's trade data, released yesterday ⬇️
But China's total imports from RU wasn't that much higher
due to various cuts across the board ($ billion):
Oct: 10.997
Sept: 10.956
(386 M: monthly highest since 2020)
November 20, 2025 at 12:14 PM
Thank you !
On Russia's impunity & the enablers of it:
Something remarkable from China's trade data, released yesterday ⬇️
But China's total imports from RU wasn't that much higher
due to various cuts across the board ($ billion):
Oct: 10.997
Sept: 10.956
(386 M: monthly highest since 2020)
On Russia's impunity & the enablers of it:
Something remarkable from China's trade data, released yesterday ⬇️
But China's total imports from RU wasn't that much higher
due to various cuts across the board ($ billion):
Oct: 10.997
Sept: 10.956
(386 M: monthly highest since 2020)
Overall ranking in € ⬇️
Data source: Agri-food data portal - European Union
Data source: Agri-food data portal - European Union
November 18, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Overall ranking in € ⬇️
Data source: Agri-food data portal - European Union
Data source: Agri-food data portal - European Union
Quite a read, what an effort - thank you very much !
It might be of interest that yesterday the EU
published its fertilizer import data for September.
The figures related eastward are 🤬 as always:
RU + BLR = € 118,096,774
»» from BLR: € 197,820 » Poland the only buyer
Top 15 buyers ⬇️
It might be of interest that yesterday the EU
published its fertilizer import data for September.
The figures related eastward are 🤬 as always:
RU + BLR = € 118,096,774
»» from BLR: € 197,820 » Poland the only buyer
Top 15 buyers ⬇️
November 18, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Quite a read, what an effort - thank you very much !
It might be of interest that yesterday the EU
published its fertilizer import data for September.
The figures related eastward are 🤬 as always:
RU + BLR = € 118,096,774
»» from BLR: € 197,820 » Poland the only buyer
Top 15 buyers ⬇️
It might be of interest that yesterday the EU
published its fertilizer import data for September.
The figures related eastward are 🤬 as always:
RU + BLR = € 118,096,774
»» from BLR: € 197,820 » Poland the only buyer
Top 15 buyers ⬇️
Thank you very much.
Reuters today re Swiss delegation met Trump:
15 % tariff rate may be announced
"as soon as Thursday or Friday this week,".
Too late for the cows in question,
but it would at least be something.
Anyway, here is a stunning image
I thought you and others might like to see.⬇️
Reuters today re Swiss delegation met Trump:
15 % tariff rate may be announced
"as soon as Thursday or Friday this week,".
Too late for the cows in question,
but it would at least be something.
Anyway, here is a stunning image
I thought you and others might like to see.⬇️
November 11, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Thank you very much.
Reuters today re Swiss delegation met Trump:
15 % tariff rate may be announced
"as soon as Thursday or Friday this week,".
Too late for the cows in question,
but it would at least be something.
Anyway, here is a stunning image
I thought you and others might like to see.⬇️
Reuters today re Swiss delegation met Trump:
15 % tariff rate may be announced
"as soon as Thursday or Friday this week,".
Too late for the cows in question,
but it would at least be something.
Anyway, here is a stunning image
I thought you and others might like to see.⬇️
Yesterday's article in the New York Times stated
"An unusually rainy spring...(enabled) Swiss cows
to produce a record milk yield."
While it's true that 2025 saw the highest yield for any August
since 2016, it was less than in Aug 2015.⬇️
So much for world-renowned quality journalism.
"An unusually rainy spring...(enabled) Swiss cows
to produce a record milk yield."
While it's true that 2025 saw the highest yield for any August
since 2016, it was less than in Aug 2015.⬇️
So much for world-renowned quality journalism.
November 8, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Yesterday's article in the New York Times stated
"An unusually rainy spring...(enabled) Swiss cows
to produce a record milk yield."
While it's true that 2025 saw the highest yield for any August
since 2016, it was less than in Aug 2015.⬇️
So much for world-renowned quality journalism.
"An unusually rainy spring...(enabled) Swiss cows
to produce a record milk yield."
While it's true that 2025 saw the highest yield for any August
since 2016, it was less than in Aug 2015.⬇️
So much for world-renowned quality journalism.
Thank you very much !
A note on Swiss farmers and their cows:
The worst is yet to come ⬇️
which was the reason for Neue Züricher Zeitung am Sonntag
to publish a detailed article about it a month ago (Oct 10)
that triggered all the other ones pretty much everywhere.
Speaking of >>
A note on Swiss farmers and their cows:
The worst is yet to come ⬇️
which was the reason for Neue Züricher Zeitung am Sonntag
to publish a detailed article about it a month ago (Oct 10)
that triggered all the other ones pretty much everywhere.
Speaking of >>
November 8, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Thank you very much !
A note on Swiss farmers and their cows:
The worst is yet to come ⬇️
which was the reason for Neue Züricher Zeitung am Sonntag
to publish a detailed article about it a month ago (Oct 10)
that triggered all the other ones pretty much everywhere.
Speaking of >>
A note on Swiss farmers and their cows:
The worst is yet to come ⬇️
which was the reason for Neue Züricher Zeitung am Sonntag
to publish a detailed article about it a month ago (Oct 10)
that triggered all the other ones pretty much everywhere.
Speaking of >>
'The possibility of extra tariffs on China
because of its support of RU's war machine
is now dead and buried once and for all, isn't it so?'
Something like that is on everyone's minds.
But she felt obligated to say "(China) bought American farmland."
of which Canada has bought ~55 times more. 🤦♂️
because of its support of RU's war machine
is now dead and buried once and for all, isn't it so?'
Something like that is on everyone's minds.
But she felt obligated to say "(China) bought American farmland."
of which Canada has bought ~55 times more. 🤦♂️
November 4, 2025 at 1:21 PM
'The possibility of extra tariffs on China
because of its support of RU's war machine
is now dead and buried once and for all, isn't it so?'
Something like that is on everyone's minds.
But she felt obligated to say "(China) bought American farmland."
of which Canada has bought ~55 times more. 🤦♂️
because of its support of RU's war machine
is now dead and buried once and for all, isn't it so?'
Something like that is on everyone's minds.
But she felt obligated to say "(China) bought American farmland."
of which Canada has bought ~55 times more. 🤦♂️
Thank you.
On Trump & Miss O’Donnell:
High egg prices wasn't "because of Biden", she should've corrected that
and in the course of this, she should've asked him about the plans
for the bird flu hurrican currently reaching the US ⬇️
Another pressing question she missed asking >>
On Trump & Miss O’Donnell:
High egg prices wasn't "because of Biden", she should've corrected that
and in the course of this, she should've asked him about the plans
for the bird flu hurrican currently reaching the US ⬇️
Another pressing question she missed asking >>
November 4, 2025 at 1:21 PM
Thank you.
On Trump & Miss O’Donnell:
High egg prices wasn't "because of Biden", she should've corrected that
and in the course of this, she should've asked him about the plans
for the bird flu hurrican currently reaching the US ⬇️
Another pressing question she missed asking >>
On Trump & Miss O’Donnell:
High egg prices wasn't "because of Biden", she should've corrected that
and in the course of this, she should've asked him about the plans
for the bird flu hurrican currently reaching the US ⬇️
Another pressing question she missed asking >>
Sources:
2020-2024 figures: USDA - FAS - GATS ⬇️
Screenshot from my notes:
- Feb to Sep: USDA - FAS - GATS
- Feb to Aug: General Administration of Customs of China (GACC)
2020-2024 figures: USDA - FAS - GATS ⬇️
Screenshot from my notes:
- Feb to Sep: USDA - FAS - GATS
- Feb to Aug: General Administration of Customs of China (GACC)
October 31, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Sources:
2020-2024 figures: USDA - FAS - GATS ⬇️
Screenshot from my notes:
- Feb to Sep: USDA - FAS - GATS
- Feb to Aug: General Administration of Customs of China (GACC)
2020-2024 figures: USDA - FAS - GATS ⬇️
Screenshot from my notes:
- Feb to Sep: USDA - FAS - GATS
- Feb to Aug: General Administration of Customs of China (GACC)
Thank you so very much !
Slip of the pen:
The figure for the soybean order is by volume, not by value (70M).
Totals of US soybean exports to CH for comparsion
(MMT, shortform, not rounded)
2020: 34
2021: 27
2022: 30
2023: 26
2024: 26
Figures for the problems Trump & loyalists didn't mention ⬇️
Slip of the pen:
The figure for the soybean order is by volume, not by value (70M).
Totals of US soybean exports to CH for comparsion
(MMT, shortform, not rounded)
2020: 34
2021: 27
2022: 30
2023: 26
2024: 26
Figures for the problems Trump & loyalists didn't mention ⬇️
October 31, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Thank you so very much !
Slip of the pen:
The figure for the soybean order is by volume, not by value (70M).
Totals of US soybean exports to CH for comparsion
(MMT, shortform, not rounded)
2020: 34
2021: 27
2022: 30
2023: 26
2024: 26
Figures for the problems Trump & loyalists didn't mention ⬇️
Slip of the pen:
The figure for the soybean order is by volume, not by value (70M).
Totals of US soybean exports to CH for comparsion
(MMT, shortform, not rounded)
2020: 34
2021: 27
2022: 30
2023: 26
2024: 26
Figures for the problems Trump & loyalists didn't mention ⬇️
Screenshot from my notes via Agri-food data portal, European Union ⬆️
Left column: Subject / not subject to the new fees categorized by CN-code
As to Ex 3105:
6 subgroups are subject to the new fees, 2 are excluded.
Total of those 2 from 2014 to 2025....brace yourself....€ 4.7 Million.
Left column: Subject / not subject to the new fees categorized by CN-code
As to Ex 3105:
6 subgroups are subject to the new fees, 2 are excluded.
Total of those 2 from 2014 to 2025....brace yourself....€ 4.7 Million.
October 24, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Screenshot from my notes via Agri-food data portal, European Union ⬆️
Left column: Subject / not subject to the new fees categorized by CN-code
As to Ex 3105:
6 subgroups are subject to the new fees, 2 are excluded.
Total of those 2 from 2014 to 2025....brace yourself....€ 4.7 Million.
Left column: Subject / not subject to the new fees categorized by CN-code
As to Ex 3105:
6 subgroups are subject to the new fees, 2 are excluded.
Total of those 2 from 2014 to 2025....brace yourself....€ 4.7 Million.
Thank you very much !!
On Kaja Kallas & 19th Package:
EU's data for its fertilizer imports from RU in August are out. ⬇️
They could've bought all of it elsewhere since a long time ago.
So I have no difficulties with sparing my applause for anything
of what EU officials are saying in this regard.
On Kaja Kallas & 19th Package:
EU's data for its fertilizer imports from RU in August are out. ⬇️
They could've bought all of it elsewhere since a long time ago.
So I have no difficulties with sparing my applause for anything
of what EU officials are saying in this regard.
October 24, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Thank you very much !!
On Kaja Kallas & 19th Package:
EU's data for its fertilizer imports from RU in August are out. ⬇️
They could've bought all of it elsewhere since a long time ago.
So I have no difficulties with sparing my applause for anything
of what EU officials are saying in this regard.
On Kaja Kallas & 19th Package:
EU's data for its fertilizer imports from RU in August are out. ⬇️
They could've bought all of it elsewhere since a long time ago.
So I have no difficulties with sparing my applause for anything
of what EU officials are saying in this regard.
Thank you.
Fun story about President Roosevelt & the East Wing area:
Eleanor Roosevelt wanted to grow vegetables
on the White House lawn to promote victory gardens.
As the legend goes, the President wasn't fond of the idea:
“tell [Eleanor] the yard is full of rocks or something."
Result ⬇️ 😂
Fun story about President Roosevelt & the East Wing area:
Eleanor Roosevelt wanted to grow vegetables
on the White House lawn to promote victory gardens.
As the legend goes, the President wasn't fond of the idea:
“tell [Eleanor] the yard is full of rocks or something."
Result ⬇️ 😂
October 22, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Thank you.
Fun story about President Roosevelt & the East Wing area:
Eleanor Roosevelt wanted to grow vegetables
on the White House lawn to promote victory gardens.
As the legend goes, the President wasn't fond of the idea:
“tell [Eleanor] the yard is full of rocks or something."
Result ⬇️ 😂
Fun story about President Roosevelt & the East Wing area:
Eleanor Roosevelt wanted to grow vegetables
on the White House lawn to promote victory gardens.
As the legend goes, the President wasn't fond of the idea:
“tell [Eleanor] the yard is full of rocks or something."
Result ⬇️ 😂
Source: China's General Administration of Customs
Detailed graph-data ⬇️
HS 284420:
Uranium; enriched in U235, plutonium, their compounds,
alloys dispersions (including cermets),
ceramic products and mixtures containing uranium enriched in U235,
plutonium or compounds of these products
Detailed graph-data ⬇️
HS 284420:
Uranium; enriched in U235, plutonium, their compounds,
alloys dispersions (including cermets),
ceramic products and mixtures containing uranium enriched in U235,
plutonium or compounds of these products
October 21, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Source: China's General Administration of Customs
Detailed graph-data ⬇️
HS 284420:
Uranium; enriched in U235, plutonium, their compounds,
alloys dispersions (including cermets),
ceramic products and mixtures containing uranium enriched in U235,
plutonium or compounds of these products
Detailed graph-data ⬇️
HS 284420:
Uranium; enriched in U235, plutonium, their compounds,
alloys dispersions (including cermets),
ceramic products and mixtures containing uranium enriched in U235,
plutonium or compounds of these products
Thank you !
Maybe of interest with regard to China:
China bought a record high of $ 474 million worth of
uranium & plutonium stuff from Russia last month.
Year's totals for comparsion ($ Million):
- 2015: 191
- 2016: 72
- 2017: 99
- 2018: 112
- 2019: 291
- 2020: 38
- 2021: no purchases
Maybe of interest with regard to China:
China bought a record high of $ 474 million worth of
uranium & plutonium stuff from Russia last month.
Year's totals for comparsion ($ Million):
- 2015: 191
- 2016: 72
- 2017: 99
- 2018: 112
- 2019: 291
- 2020: 38
- 2021: no purchases
October 21, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Thank you !
Maybe of interest with regard to China:
China bought a record high of $ 474 million worth of
uranium & plutonium stuff from Russia last month.
Year's totals for comparsion ($ Million):
- 2015: 191
- 2016: 72
- 2017: 99
- 2018: 112
- 2019: 291
- 2020: 38
- 2021: no purchases
Maybe of interest with regard to China:
China bought a record high of $ 474 million worth of
uranium & plutonium stuff from Russia last month.
Year's totals for comparsion ($ Million):
- 2015: 191
- 2016: 72
- 2017: 99
- 2018: 112
- 2019: 291
- 2020: 38
- 2021: no purchases
Thank you very much !
On Trump's tariff threat:
China's response could be fatal for US agriculture.
Also, 2023 US ag exports of $175.5B
- produced an additional $186.9B in economic activity
- required 1.05 million full-time jobs
China's share 2023: 16.57 % (2024: 13.84)
On Trump's tariff threat:
China's response could be fatal for US agriculture.
Also, 2023 US ag exports of $175.5B
- produced an additional $186.9B in economic activity
- required 1.05 million full-time jobs
China's share 2023: 16.57 % (2024: 13.84)
October 14, 2025 at 8:47 AM
Thank you very much !
On Trump's tariff threat:
China's response could be fatal for US agriculture.
Also, 2023 US ag exports of $175.5B
- produced an additional $186.9B in economic activity
- required 1.05 million full-time jobs
China's share 2023: 16.57 % (2024: 13.84)
On Trump's tariff threat:
China's response could be fatal for US agriculture.
Also, 2023 US ag exports of $175.5B
- produced an additional $186.9B in economic activity
- required 1.05 million full-time jobs
China's share 2023: 16.57 % (2024: 13.84)
Not much in the News about the US port fees on vessels
owned, operated, or built in China, effective in a week
and that China most definitely won't let it go unanswered.
Well, many have never heard that soybeans accounts for
only half of US agricultural exports to China.
Soon they will.
owned, operated, or built in China, effective in a week
and that China most definitely won't let it go unanswered.
Well, many have never heard that soybeans accounts for
only half of US agricultural exports to China.
Soon they will.
October 7, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Not much in the News about the US port fees on vessels
owned, operated, or built in China, effective in a week
and that China most definitely won't let it go unanswered.
Well, many have never heard that soybeans accounts for
only half of US agricultural exports to China.
Soon they will.
owned, operated, or built in China, effective in a week
and that China most definitely won't let it go unanswered.
Well, many have never heard that soybeans accounts for
only half of US agricultural exports to China.
Soon they will.
Thanks a ton !
»» Farmer Bailout on the Table
Traditionally, the US exports most soy to China from Sep - Jan.
In 2024/25: $ 8.18 Billion
Whereas Feb - July 2025 were $1.36 Billion less compared to 2024.
So only a small part of this bailout is because of the past.
Iceberg, right ahead >>
»» Farmer Bailout on the Table
Traditionally, the US exports most soy to China from Sep - Jan.
In 2024/25: $ 8.18 Billion
Whereas Feb - July 2025 were $1.36 Billion less compared to 2024.
So only a small part of this bailout is because of the past.
Iceberg, right ahead >>
October 7, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Thanks a ton !
»» Farmer Bailout on the Table
Traditionally, the US exports most soy to China from Sep - Jan.
In 2024/25: $ 8.18 Billion
Whereas Feb - July 2025 were $1.36 Billion less compared to 2024.
So only a small part of this bailout is because of the past.
Iceberg, right ahead >>
»» Farmer Bailout on the Table
Traditionally, the US exports most soy to China from Sep - Jan.
In 2024/25: $ 8.18 Billion
Whereas Feb - July 2025 were $1.36 Billion less compared to 2024.
So only a small part of this bailout is because of the past.
Iceberg, right ahead >>
Thank you very much !
»» Soybean crisis forces unusual trade pivots
Whoever told you that Vietnam and Bangladesh
aren't traditional buyers owes you an apology.
The U.S. sells soybeans to ~ 60 destinations. Top 15 ⬇️
(Screenshot from my notes via USDA - FAS)
»» Soybean crisis forces unusual trade pivots
Whoever told you that Vietnam and Bangladesh
aren't traditional buyers owes you an apology.
The U.S. sells soybeans to ~ 60 destinations. Top 15 ⬇️
(Screenshot from my notes via USDA - FAS)
October 4, 2025 at 9:00 AM
Thank you very much !
»» Soybean crisis forces unusual trade pivots
Whoever told you that Vietnam and Bangladesh
aren't traditional buyers owes you an apology.
The U.S. sells soybeans to ~ 60 destinations. Top 15 ⬇️
(Screenshot from my notes via USDA - FAS)
»» Soybean crisis forces unusual trade pivots
Whoever told you that Vietnam and Bangladesh
aren't traditional buyers owes you an apology.
The U.S. sells soybeans to ~ 60 destinations. Top 15 ⬇️
(Screenshot from my notes via USDA - FAS)