Marc Daalder
@marcdaalder.bsky.social
Senior Political Reporter at newsroom.co.nz covering climate change, health, energy and violent extremism | He/him ✡️
If you find a toutouwai/North Island Robin, it *will* try to stare you down and it *will* be adorable. 🪶
www.instagram.com/p/DQ3ZO8piRi1/
www.instagram.com/p/DQ3ZO8piRi1/
November 10, 2025 at 6:28 AM
If you find a toutouwai/North Island Robin, it *will* try to stare you down and it *will* be adorable. 🪶
www.instagram.com/p/DQ3ZO8piRi1/
www.instagram.com/p/DQ3ZO8piRi1/
I think the assumption is National holds all of its electorates based on the footnote on this chart from the Post article. But they ought to be much clearer if that is the assumption.
October 14, 2025 at 8:53 PM
I think the assumption is National holds all of its electorates based on the footnote on this chart from the Post article. But they ought to be much clearer if that is the assumption.
The process: Walk to the lakeside; set up the monopod, camera and 2kg lens; realise I've left my camera battery in my room; walk back to the room; back to the lakeside (it is now raining); stand in the rain.
The results: Worth it.
#birdphotography #birds 🪶
The results: Worth it.
#birdphotography #birds 🪶
October 9, 2025 at 9:31 PM
The process: Walk to the lakeside; set up the monopod, camera and 2kg lens; realise I've left my camera battery in my room; walk back to the room; back to the lakeside (it is now raining); stand in the rain.
The results: Worth it.
#birdphotography #birds 🪶
The results: Worth it.
#birdphotography #birds 🪶
Finally, my colleague @laura-walters.bsky.social used some of the data and more recent poll results to read the tea leaves about the political fates of the two Chrises.
Despite all the talk about Hipkins getting rolled, the NZES and other sources showed he's far less disliked than Luxon.
Despite all the talk about Hipkins getting rolled, the NZES and other sources showed he's far less disliked than Luxon.
September 4, 2025 at 3:09 AM
Finally, my colleague @laura-walters.bsky.social used some of the data and more recent poll results to read the tea leaves about the political fates of the two Chrises.
Despite all the talk about Hipkins getting rolled, the NZES and other sources showed he's far less disliked than Luxon.
Despite all the talk about Hipkins getting rolled, the NZES and other sources showed he's far less disliked than Luxon.
Another high-level observation? Labour's ex-voters fleeing predominately to the minor parties was not limited to that party. National too lost more voters to minor parties than it garnered from them.
All part of a big swing at the election away from the big two parties.
All part of a big swing at the election away from the big two parties.
September 4, 2025 at 3:05 AM
Another high-level observation? Labour's ex-voters fleeing predominately to the minor parties was not limited to that party. National too lost more voters to minor parties than it garnered from them.
All part of a big swing at the election away from the big two parties.
All part of a big swing at the election away from the big two parties.
Perhaps the most substantive boost, however, went to NZ First. More than half of NZ First's 2023 voters reported voting for Labour in 2020.
Without these Labour leavers, NZ First wouldn't have crossed the 5% threshold and wouldn't have returned to Parliament.
Story: newsroom.co.nz/2025/09/03/n...
Without these Labour leavers, NZ First wouldn't have crossed the 5% threshold and wouldn't have returned to Parliament.
Story: newsroom.co.nz/2025/09/03/n...
September 4, 2025 at 3:05 AM
Perhaps the most substantive boost, however, went to NZ First. More than half of NZ First's 2023 voters reported voting for Labour in 2020.
Without these Labour leavers, NZ First wouldn't have crossed the 5% threshold and wouldn't have returned to Parliament.
Story: newsroom.co.nz/2025/09/03/n...
Without these Labour leavers, NZ First wouldn't have crossed the 5% threshold and wouldn't have returned to Parliament.
Story: newsroom.co.nz/2025/09/03/n...
The biggest question I had for 2023: Where did Labour's 2020 voters go?
The answer: The plurality of those who left Labour just didn't vote. A similar proportion went to National, followed by the Greens. All unsurprising.
The answer: The plurality of those who left Labour just didn't vote. A similar proportion went to National, followed by the Greens. All unsurprising.
September 4, 2025 at 3:05 AM
The biggest question I had for 2023: Where did Labour's 2020 voters go?
The answer: The plurality of those who left Labour just didn't vote. A similar proportion went to National, followed by the Greens. All unsurprising.
The answer: The plurality of those who left Labour just didn't vote. A similar proportion went to National, followed by the Greens. All unsurprising.
One cool thing about the NZES is that it asks respondents who they voted for last time too. That allows us to look at the flow of votes from parties in one election to new parties in the next.
Interactive: public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
Interactive: public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
September 4, 2025 at 3:05 AM
One cool thing about the NZES is that it asks respondents who they voted for last time too. That allows us to look at the flow of votes from parties in one election to new parties in the next.
Interactive: public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
Interactive: public.flourish.studio/visualisatio...
Zooming out to the big picture on coalitions, National voters were the only cohort which preferred a single-party to multi-party Government.
The smaller parties were, unsurprisingly, more supportive of coalitions, though Labour voters also preferred them 56-33%.
The smaller parties were, unsurprisingly, more supportive of coalitions, though Labour voters also preferred them 56-33%.
September 4, 2025 at 2:59 AM
Zooming out to the big picture on coalitions, National voters were the only cohort which preferred a single-party to multi-party Government.
The smaller parties were, unsurprisingly, more supportive of coalitions, though Labour voters also preferred them 56-33%.
The smaller parties were, unsurprisingly, more supportive of coalitions, though Labour voters also preferred them 56-33%.
A quick squiz across the aisle, to look at Labour voters. They backed the Greens, ofc, but a sizeable chunk supported TPM too (more than Nat/Act voters wanted NZF).
It suggests TPM may not be as much electoral deadweight (for Labour diehards who stuck with the party in 2023, at least) as feared.
It suggests TPM may not be as much electoral deadweight (for Labour diehards who stuck with the party in 2023, at least) as feared.
September 4, 2025 at 2:59 AM
A quick squiz across the aisle, to look at Labour voters. They backed the Greens, ofc, but a sizeable chunk supported TPM too (more than Nat/Act voters wanted NZF).
It suggests TPM may not be as much electoral deadweight (for Labour diehards who stuck with the party in 2023, at least) as feared.
It suggests TPM may not be as much electoral deadweight (for Labour diehards who stuck with the party in 2023, at least) as feared.
We can get similar insights about other coalition parties too.
Both minor coalition parties liked National a lot. Act was hardly more friendly to NZF, with just 17% wanting Winston in Govt.
NZF voters were more ideologically flexible, with nearly a quarter backing Labour for Govt.
Both minor coalition parties liked National a lot. Act was hardly more friendly to NZF, with just 17% wanting Winston in Govt.
NZF voters were more ideologically flexible, with nearly a quarter backing Labour for Govt.
September 4, 2025 at 2:59 AM
We can get similar insights about other coalition parties too.
Both minor coalition parties liked National a lot. Act was hardly more friendly to NZF, with just 17% wanting Winston in Govt.
NZF voters were more ideologically flexible, with nearly a quarter backing Labour for Govt.
Both minor coalition parties liked National a lot. Act was hardly more friendly to NZF, with just 17% wanting Winston in Govt.
NZF voters were more ideologically flexible, with nearly a quarter backing Labour for Govt.
Unsurprisingly, National's voters were big fans of a partnership with Act. About a quarter wanted them to govern alone.
Only 10 percent liked NZ First in Government, raising questions about the party's constituency's views of the current arrangement.
Only 10 percent liked NZ First in Government, raising questions about the party's constituency's views of the current arrangement.
September 4, 2025 at 2:59 AM
Unsurprisingly, National's voters were big fans of a partnership with Act. About a quarter wanted them to govern alone.
Only 10 percent liked NZ First in Government, raising questions about the party's constituency's views of the current arrangement.
Only 10 percent liked NZ First in Government, raising questions about the party's constituency's views of the current arrangement.
From the 2023 NZ election survey. Confident, happy and proud are the emotions most commonly associated with the Covid response, when the substantive response had already been in the rearview mirror for more than a year (eg, no active restrictions).
August 25, 2025 at 3:39 AM
From the 2023 NZ election survey. Confident, happy and proud are the emotions most commonly associated with the Covid response, when the substantive response had already been in the rearview mirror for more than a year (eg, no active restrictions).
And if you're worried, they do have signs on all the other doors to the building too @strictlyobiter.bsky.social
August 19, 2025 at 8:53 AM
And if you're worried, they do have signs on all the other doors to the building too @strictlyobiter.bsky.social
Not this anecdote but the procedures for closed court are equally robust
August 19, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Not this anecdote but the procedures for closed court are equally robust
This is maybe the least convincing possible series of talking points.
1. I wanted to engage with the sector first.
2. They were worried that they didn't know what was going on.
3. That's why I declined the opportunity to learn what was going on.
www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...
1. I wanted to engage with the sector first.
2. They were worried that they didn't know what was going on.
3. That's why I declined the opportunity to learn what was going on.
www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...
August 8, 2025 at 12:58 AM
This is maybe the least convincing possible series of talking points.
1. I wanted to engage with the sector first.
2. They were worried that they didn't know what was going on.
3. That's why I declined the opportunity to learn what was going on.
www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...
1. I wanted to engage with the sector first.
2. They were worried that they didn't know what was going on.
3. That's why I declined the opportunity to learn what was going on.
www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...
IEA solar projections but in reverse
August 6, 2025 at 1:47 AM
IEA solar projections but in reverse
Running a little poll over on Instagram over which bird I should rep for @forestandbird.bsky.social's Bird of the Year 2025.
Lmk here or go to www.instagram.com/mdaalderphot... to make your voice heard! 🪶
Lmk here or go to www.instagram.com/mdaalderphot... to make your voice heard! 🪶
July 16, 2025 at 5:32 AM
Running a little poll over on Instagram over which bird I should rep for @forestandbird.bsky.social's Bird of the Year 2025.
Lmk here or go to www.instagram.com/mdaalderphot... to make your voice heard! 🪶
Lmk here or go to www.instagram.com/mdaalderphot... to make your voice heard! 🪶
Sorry but excluding the two flavours I like from the sale should be illegal
June 16, 2025 at 1:12 AM
Sorry but excluding the two flavours I like from the sale should be illegal
And whether they believe it or not, many don't feel they should have to reduce emissions.
www.climatecommission.govt.nz/public/Advic...
www.climatecommission.govt.nz/public/Advic...
June 16, 2025 at 1:04 AM
And whether they believe it or not, many don't feel they should have to reduce emissions.
www.climatecommission.govt.nz/public/Advic...
www.climatecommission.govt.nz/public/Advic...
You will never in a thousand years guess what Wikipedia page this sidebar appears on.
June 14, 2025 at 3:48 AM
You will never in a thousand years guess what Wikipedia page this sidebar appears on.
