Richard Hendriks
@mar-hendriks.bsky.social
Calm, critical, compassionate.
Earth, energy, electricity, economy… and the occasional political musings.
Canadian hydropower consultant.
Earth, energy, electricity, economy… and the occasional political musings.
Canadian hydropower consultant.
There’s no provincial breakdown, but let’s assume that B.C. represents 10% of national demand (which it did in 2010), this would mean 150 TWh/y of BC demand in 2050.
So, how’s that going?
This from BC Hydro’s latest IRP. After DSM is about 75 TWh/y in 2050.
So, how’s that going?
This from BC Hydro’s latest IRP. After DSM is about 75 TWh/y in 2050.
December 18, 2025 at 12:01 PM
There’s no provincial breakdown, but let’s assume that B.C. represents 10% of national demand (which it did in 2010), this would mean 150 TWh/y of BC demand in 2050.
So, how’s that going?
This from BC Hydro’s latest IRP. After DSM is about 75 TWh/y in 2050.
So, how’s that going?
This from BC Hydro’s latest IRP. After DSM is about 75 TWh/y in 2050.
Okay, let’s go there. Since it’s ultimately the demand projections that lead to the supply absurdities.
Based on the graph, it appears the DDPP IS saying that supply will need to meet a national transmission-level demand of 1,500 TWh/y by 2050. I just want to confirm before I take this bet.
Based on the graph, it appears the DDPP IS saying that supply will need to meet a national transmission-level demand of 1,500 TWh/y by 2050. I just want to confirm before I take this bet.
December 18, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Okay, let’s go there. Since it’s ultimately the demand projections that lead to the supply absurdities.
Based on the graph, it appears the DDPP IS saying that supply will need to meet a national transmission-level demand of 1,500 TWh/y by 2050. I just want to confirm before I take this bet.
Based on the graph, it appears the DDPP IS saying that supply will need to meet a national transmission-level demand of 1,500 TWh/y by 2050. I just want to confirm before I take this bet.
You wrote the 2015 DDPP, no?
This is the supply graph in that report. Shows a doubling of hydropower by from 2010 to 2050, or about 70 GW.
Care to explain?
This is the supply graph in that report. Shows a doubling of hydropower by from 2010 to 2050, or about 70 GW.
Care to explain?
December 12, 2025 at 1:15 AM
You wrote the 2015 DDPP, no?
This is the supply graph in that report. Shows a doubling of hydropower by from 2010 to 2050, or about 70 GW.
Care to explain?
This is the supply graph in that report. Shows a doubling of hydropower by from 2010 to 2050, or about 70 GW.
Care to explain?
Plus ça change… 😂
(Ugly and dirty then, ugly and dirty still)
(Ugly and dirty then, ugly and dirty still)
December 9, 2025 at 11:29 PM
Plus ça change… 😂
(Ugly and dirty then, ugly and dirty still)
(Ugly and dirty then, ugly and dirty still)
Jack Magnus is exactly correct - planning and relationship building take time. When dozens of wind projects were abandoned fifteen years ago to make room for Site C, the BC wind industry lost its expertise, capital, confidence and collaborations with First Nations.
thetyee.ca/Analysis/202...
thetyee.ca/Analysis/202...
December 7, 2025 at 4:31 AM
Jack Magnus is exactly correct - planning and relationship building take time. When dozens of wind projects were abandoned fifteen years ago to make room for Site C, the BC wind industry lost its expertise, capital, confidence and collaborations with First Nations.
thetyee.ca/Analysis/202...
thetyee.ca/Analysis/202...
Many federal Liberal policies, while perhaps well-intentioned, were largely ineffective at reducing emissions. If we take 2017 to 2023 as a guide, while it’s true that oil and gas emissions did not decline that can be said of all other sectors save electricity, which is provincial jurisdiction.
November 28, 2025 at 2:56 AM
Many federal Liberal policies, while perhaps well-intentioned, were largely ineffective at reducing emissions. If we take 2017 to 2023 as a guide, while it’s true that oil and gas emissions did not decline that can be said of all other sectors save electricity, which is provincial jurisdiction.
Many federal Liberal policies, while perhaps well-intentioned, were largely ineffective at reducing emissions. If we take 2017 to 2023 as a guide, while it’s true that oil and gas emissions did not decline that can be said of all other sectors save electricity, which is provincial jurisdiction.
November 28, 2025 at 2:38 AM
Many federal Liberal policies, while perhaps well-intentioned, were largely ineffective at reducing emissions. If we take 2017 to 2023 as a guide, while it’s true that oil and gas emissions did not decline that can be said of all other sectors save electricity, which is provincial jurisdiction.
The zealot’s temptation is to say that BC Hydro is even more negligent in its forecasts.
But history tells a much different story. Looking at the actuals, there has been no load growth in BC for 20 years. Yet, in every one of those forecasts, BC Hydro forecasted load growth that never happened.
But history tells a much different story. Looking at the actuals, there has been no load growth in BC for 20 years. Yet, in every one of those forecasts, BC Hydro forecasted load growth that never happened.
November 25, 2025 at 6:53 PM
The zealot’s temptation is to say that BC Hydro is even more negligent in its forecasts.
But history tells a much different story. Looking at the actuals, there has been no load growth in BC for 20 years. Yet, in every one of those forecasts, BC Hydro forecasted load growth that never happened.
But history tells a much different story. Looking at the actuals, there has been no load growth in BC for 20 years. Yet, in every one of those forecasts, BC Hydro forecasted load growth that never happened.
The forecasted growth by 2030 is not 13% as stated in the article, but much lower. This can be seen in the attached graphs. For energy, the forecast is ~64,000 GWh by 2030 (~10% on 58,400 GWh in 2025) and for capacity is ~11,800 MW (~6.5% on 11,100 MW) or half that stated in the article.
November 25, 2025 at 6:53 PM
The forecasted growth by 2030 is not 13% as stated in the article, but much lower. This can be seen in the attached graphs. For energy, the forecast is ~64,000 GWh by 2030 (~10% on 58,400 GWh in 2025) and for capacity is ~11,800 MW (~6.5% on 11,100 MW) or half that stated in the article.
The authors of this article seem to have misread the graphs on p. 2-23 and 2-27 of the IRP. The actuals are after demand-side management (DSM) but the forecasts are BEFORE DSM.
November 25, 2025 at 6:53 PM
The authors of this article seem to have misread the graphs on p. 2-23 and 2-27 of the IRP. The actuals are after demand-side management (DSM) but the forecasts are BEFORE DSM.
What’s going on? Moral values.
People are more likely to adopt technologies consistent with the energy transition when doing so is framed in terms of their moral values.
This can be seen in Hungary’s energy policy statements.
People are more likely to adopt technologies consistent with the energy transition when doing so is framed in terms of their moral values.
This can be seen in Hungary’s energy policy statements.
November 23, 2025 at 7:02 PM
What’s going on? Moral values.
People are more likely to adopt technologies consistent with the energy transition when doing so is framed in terms of their moral values.
This can be seen in Hungary’s energy policy statements.
People are more likely to adopt technologies consistent with the energy transition when doing so is framed in terms of their moral values.
This can be seen in Hungary’s energy policy statements.
This article is getting high traction. If Germans who vote for far right parties don’t adopt EVs because their “climate scepticism deepens” then we’d expect to see the same in Hungary, with its far right regime. Yet, Hungary has the highest solar penetration in all of Europe.
November 23, 2025 at 7:02 PM
This article is getting high traction. If Germans who vote for far right parties don’t adopt EVs because their “climate scepticism deepens” then we’d expect to see the same in Hungary, with its far right regime. Yet, Hungary has the highest solar penetration in all of Europe.
The hydrogen truck era has already passed. Leave it to Canadian companies to be so far behind the times they haven’t yet even seen the failure.
November 16, 2025 at 4:44 PM
The hydrogen truck era has already passed. Leave it to Canadian companies to be so far behind the times they haven’t yet even seen the failure.
It would be interesting to see a similar set of graphs by economic sector in Canada. Or, perhaps more revealingly, by province.
November 13, 2025 at 5:39 PM
It would be interesting to see a similar set of graphs by economic sector in Canada. Or, perhaps more revealingly, by province.
Note to my friends in British Columbia, if the left keeps throwing all the furniture on the fire, the fascists will say they’re justified in letting the house burn down.
You cannot say you weren’t warned.
www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/briti...
You cannot say you weren’t warned.
www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/briti...
October 25, 2025 at 10:10 PM
Note to my friends in British Columbia, if the left keeps throwing all the furniture on the fire, the fascists will say they’re justified in letting the house burn down.
You cannot say you weren’t warned.
www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/briti...
You cannot say you weren’t warned.
www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/briti...
Hopefully, Korea is automating its auto production.
October 25, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Hopefully, Korea is automating its auto production.
If treatment fails for cancer, for heart disease, for depression, smoking cessation, etc. our care system does not (and cannot afford to) perpetually intervene with new treatments or repeat treatments. If addiction is truly a health issue, why would governments address it any differently?
October 24, 2025 at 12:49 AM
If treatment fails for cancer, for heart disease, for depression, smoking cessation, etc. our care system does not (and cannot afford to) perpetually intervene with new treatments or repeat treatments. If addiction is truly a health issue, why would governments address it any differently?
This is from 2015 (see p.122 for more detail). The idea of natural gas as a transition fuel used sparingly (as opposed to excessively) to meet grid peaking needs is not new nor, for that matter, now out of date as you point out in your piece.
centrehelios.org/wp-content/u...
centrehelios.org/wp-content/u...
September 25, 2025 at 5:30 PM
This is from 2015 (see p.122 for more detail). The idea of natural gas as a transition fuel used sparingly (as opposed to excessively) to meet grid peaking needs is not new nor, for that matter, now out of date as you point out in your piece.
centrehelios.org/wp-content/u...
centrehelios.org/wp-content/u...
Unfortunately, that’s only half the story. Vietnam’s EVs still run on fossil fuels, mostly coal.
September 16, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Unfortunately, that’s only half the story. Vietnam’s EVs still run on fossil fuels, mostly coal.
“Although all parties to the Paris Agreement embraced a goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C…”
That’s not the commitment in the Paris Agreement. The commitment is as follows:
That’s not the commitment in the Paris Agreement. The commitment is as follows:
September 16, 2025 at 3:30 AM
“Although all parties to the Paris Agreement embraced a goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C…”
That’s not the commitment in the Paris Agreement. The commitment is as follows:
That’s not the commitment in the Paris Agreement. The commitment is as follows:
In 2013, in order to justify proceeding with Site C, BC Hydro pegged the energy cost of the first 5,000 GWh of wind at a UEC of $95/MWh in $2010 ($125/MWh adjusted for integration and delivery) with no future declines in UEC (!!). That’s about $133/MWh in $2025. The bids will be revealing.
July 28, 2025 at 11:32 PM
In 2013, in order to justify proceeding with Site C, BC Hydro pegged the energy cost of the first 5,000 GWh of wind at a UEC of $95/MWh in $2010 ($125/MWh adjusted for integration and delivery) with no future declines in UEC (!!). That’s about $133/MWh in $2025. The bids will be revealing.
No sector in Canada has performed better than electricity in reducing emissions, though some work remains in four provinces. Policy efforts need to focus on using our highly decarbonized electricity to electrify other sectors, not obsessing about net-zero electricity emissions.
July 23, 2025 at 1:08 PM
No sector in Canada has performed better than electricity in reducing emissions, though some work remains in four provinces. Policy efforts need to focus on using our highly decarbonized electricity to electrify other sectors, not obsessing about net-zero electricity emissions.
Not sure where Ember gets its data but here’s the official Canadian data for electricity sector emissions. Sectoral emissions were 49 MT in 2023. Can Ember explain why you’re reporting more than double this level of emissions?
www.canada.ca/en/environme...
www.canada.ca/en/environme...
July 23, 2025 at 12:35 AM
Not sure where Ember gets its data but here’s the official Canadian data for electricity sector emissions. Sectoral emissions were 49 MT in 2023. Can Ember explain why you’re reporting more than double this level of emissions?
www.canada.ca/en/environme...
www.canada.ca/en/environme...
Good to see this issue getting more coverage. There’s a particular philosophy behind Hungary’s energy transition as articulated in its National Energy and Climate Plan. Christian nationalism as the basis for climate action raises some interesting questions.
energy.ec.europa.eu/system/files...
energy.ec.europa.eu/system/files...
May 14, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Good to see this issue getting more coverage. There’s a particular philosophy behind Hungary’s energy transition as articulated in its National Energy and Climate Plan. Christian nationalism as the basis for climate action raises some interesting questions.
energy.ec.europa.eu/system/files...
energy.ec.europa.eu/system/files...
Tim Hodgson, Wilkinson’s replacement, became Chair of the Board at Hydro One on August 1, 2019. Of course, stock performance is but one measure and the Board Chair but one person but the results for shareholders (the Province owns ~50% of Hydro One) are consistently strong.
May 13, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Tim Hodgson, Wilkinson’s replacement, became Chair of the Board at Hydro One on August 1, 2019. Of course, stock performance is but one measure and the Board Chair but one person but the results for shareholders (the Province owns ~50% of Hydro One) are consistently strong.