Manuel Serrano-Alarcon
@manuseral.bsky.social
Economist. Research fellow at the Competence Centre on Microeconomic Evaluation (CC-ME), Joint Research Centre, European Commission. Public policy evaluation & health economics.
Personal website: https://sites.google.com/view/manuelserranoalarcon
Personal website: https://sites.google.com/view/manuelserranoalarcon
Policy implications:
▶️ measures to contain moral hazard may reduce strategic short-term absences, but focusing only on this is insufficient.
▶️ The sharp rise in long mental health leaves, especially among the youth, calls for:
• Broader preventive strategies & mental health support at work.
▶️ measures to contain moral hazard may reduce strategic short-term absences, but focusing only on this is insufficient.
▶️ The sharp rise in long mental health leaves, especially among the youth, calls for:
• Broader preventive strategies & mental health support at work.
November 19, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Policy implications:
▶️ measures to contain moral hazard may reduce strategic short-term absences, but focusing only on this is insufficient.
▶️ The sharp rise in long mental health leaves, especially among the youth, calls for:
• Broader preventive strategies & mental health support at work.
▶️ measures to contain moral hazard may reduce strategic short-term absences, but focusing only on this is insufficient.
▶️ The sharp rise in long mental health leaves, especially among the youth, calls for:
• Broader preventive strategies & mental health support at work.
Regional panel models linked with national health survey further show:
• Short-term SL unrelated to changes in health indicators 👉 likely behavioural
• Long-term mental and musculoskeletal SL are significantly associated with work stress and pain-related limitations👉 likely health deterioration.
• Short-term SL unrelated to changes in health indicators 👉 likely behavioural
• Long-term mental and musculoskeletal SL are significantly associated with work stress and pain-related limitations👉 likely health deterioration.
November 19, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Regional panel models linked with national health survey further show:
• Short-term SL unrelated to changes in health indicators 👉 likely behavioural
• Long-term mental and musculoskeletal SL are significantly associated with work stress and pain-related limitations👉 likely health deterioration.
• Short-term SL unrelated to changes in health indicators 👉 likely behavioural
• Long-term mental and musculoskeletal SL are significantly associated with work stress and pain-related limitations👉 likely health deterioration.
We further decompose the rise by diagnosis group and find:
▶️Musculoskeletal and mental disorders account for ~60% of the increase, with a clear age gradient.
▶️ Mental health is the largest contributor among workers <40, explaining 35–56%
▶️Musculoskeletal explains 35–43% for workers 50+
▶️Musculoskeletal and mental disorders account for ~60% of the increase, with a clear age gradient.
▶️ Mental health is the largest contributor among workers <40, explaining 35–56%
▶️Musculoskeletal explains 35–43% for workers 50+
November 19, 2025 at 4:39 PM
We further decompose the rise by diagnosis group and find:
▶️Musculoskeletal and mental disorders account for ~60% of the increase, with a clear age gradient.
▶️ Mental health is the largest contributor among workers <40, explaining 35–56%
▶️Musculoskeletal explains 35–43% for workers 50+
▶️Musculoskeletal and mental disorders account for ~60% of the increase, with a clear age gradient.
▶️ Mental health is the largest contributor among workers <40, explaining 35–56%
▶️Musculoskeletal explains 35–43% for workers 50+
Short- and long-term spells behave very differently:
▶️Short-term sick leave: > 60% is explained by falling unemployment👉 likely behavioural responses due to stronger worker bargaining power
▶️Long-term sick leave: 90% unexplained 👉
likely health deterioration rather than strategic behaviour.
▶️Short-term sick leave: > 60% is explained by falling unemployment👉 likely behavioural responses due to stronger worker bargaining power
▶️Long-term sick leave: 90% unexplained 👉
likely health deterioration rather than strategic behaviour.
November 19, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Short- and long-term spells behave very differently:
▶️Short-term sick leave: > 60% is explained by falling unemployment👉 likely behavioural responses due to stronger worker bargaining power
▶️Long-term sick leave: 90% unexplained 👉
likely health deterioration rather than strategic behaviour.
▶️Short-term sick leave: > 60% is explained by falling unemployment👉 likely behavioural responses due to stronger worker bargaining power
▶️Long-term sick leave: 90% unexplained 👉
likely health deterioration rather than strategic behaviour.
Which factors actually explain this surge?
▶️Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition shows that the most commonly discussed drivers explain only ~26% of the increase.
▶️~74% unexplained by workforce composition or observable characteristics.
▶️The large inflow of migrants actually reduces the expected rise.
▶️Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition shows that the most commonly discussed drivers explain only ~26% of the increase.
▶️~74% unexplained by workforce composition or observable characteristics.
▶️The large inflow of migrants actually reduces the expected rise.
November 19, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Which factors actually explain this surge?
▶️Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition shows that the most commonly discussed drivers explain only ~26% of the increase.
▶️~74% unexplained by workforce composition or observable characteristics.
▶️The large inflow of migrants actually reduces the expected rise.
▶️Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition shows that the most commonly discussed drivers explain only ~26% of the increase.
▶️~74% unexplained by workforce composition or observable characteristics.
▶️The large inflow of migrants actually reduces the expected rise.
We find a 36% increase in the share of working days lost to sick leave driven by:
• short spells (≤7 days): +38%
• Very long spells (17+ weeks): +39%
The increase is strikingly broad-based and parallel across SE groups.
This points to common forces rather than isolated, group-specific changes.
• short spells (≤7 days): +38%
• Very long spells (17+ weeks): +39%
The increase is strikingly broad-based and parallel across SE groups.
This points to common forces rather than isolated, group-specific changes.
November 19, 2025 at 4:39 PM
We find a 36% increase in the share of working days lost to sick leave driven by:
• short spells (≤7 days): +38%
• Very long spells (17+ weeks): +39%
The increase is strikingly broad-based and parallel across SE groups.
This points to common forces rather than isolated, group-specific changes.
• short spells (≤7 days): +38%
• Very long spells (17+ weeks): +39%
The increase is strikingly broad-based and parallel across SE groups.
This points to common forces rather than isolated, group-specific changes.
Spain provides a compelling case because:
▶️ 2nd highest increase in compensated sick leave in the OECD in 2014–2022.
▶️ Experienced major changes in the most frequently discussed drivers of sickness absence: ageing workforce, large unemployment fall, and big increases in healthcare waiting times.
▶️ 2nd highest increase in compensated sick leave in the OECD in 2014–2022.
▶️ Experienced major changes in the most frequently discussed drivers of sickness absence: ageing workforce, large unemployment fall, and big increases in healthcare waiting times.
November 19, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Spain provides a compelling case because:
▶️ 2nd highest increase in compensated sick leave in the OECD in 2014–2022.
▶️ Experienced major changes in the most frequently discussed drivers of sickness absence: ageing workforce, large unemployment fall, and big increases in healthcare waiting times.
▶️ 2nd highest increase in compensated sick leave in the OECD in 2014–2022.
▶️ Experienced major changes in the most frequently discussed drivers of sickness absence: ageing workforce, large unemployment fall, and big increases in healthcare waiting times.