David Manasco
@manasco.bsky.social
I’m just a data analyst trying to figure out the truth.
But that chart is limited to people marked as having voted last November in the voter file. Comparing the change between April and November. You’re telling me that the chart I posted is representative of real human behavior? 275ish voters are missing for each year of birth between 1987 and 1997
November 8, 2025 at 9:15 PM
But that chart is limited to people marked as having voted last November in the voter file. Comparing the change between April and November. You’re telling me that the chart I posted is representative of real human behavior? 275ish voters are missing for each year of birth between 1987 and 1997
She is in Lancaster County, the charts I posted earlier are specific to Philadelphia County, where 12k voters who voted in Nov 2024 were set to inactive this year. This chart below is comparing the two voter files that I have Apr and Nov. look at how pretty the change is by birth year.
November 8, 2025 at 8:32 PM
She is in Lancaster County, the charts I posted earlier are specific to Philadelphia County, where 12k voters who voted in Nov 2024 were set to inactive this year. This chart below is comparing the two voter files that I have Apr and Nov. look at how pretty the change is by birth year.
She voted in 2016, 2018, 2020 primary, 2020 general, 2022, and 2024 general. Yet when she went to vote Tuesday she was told she was inactive.
November 8, 2025 at 8:27 PM
She voted in 2016, 2018, 2020 primary, 2020 general, 2022, and 2024 general. Yet when she went to vote Tuesday she was told she was inactive.
These are all Nov 2024 voters who have been inactivated in 2025. How do you reconcile that if they haven’t missed 2 federal elections? 12k voters from 2024 have been since marked inactive.
November 8, 2025 at 8:25 PM
These are all Nov 2024 voters who have been inactivated in 2025. How do you reconcile that if they haven’t missed 2 federal elections? 12k voters from 2024 have been since marked inactive.
No she is in Lancaster. I found out after the fact and started to analyze the voter files. This data is from Philly. The charts I posted were Nov 2024 Voters. Why are they being mass inactivated less than a year since voting if they have to miss two federal elections.
November 8, 2025 at 8:22 PM
No she is in Lancaster. I found out after the fact and started to analyze the voter files. This data is from Philly. The charts I posted were Nov 2024 Voters. Why are they being mass inactivated less than a year since voting if they have to miss two federal elections.
I was not involved in the lawsuit. I have been down a rabbit hole because I spoke with a voter who went to vote Tuesday and she was marked as inactive. She was told she hadn’t voted in a while. We looked at voter file and she was active in April and inactive in November. These are others like her.
November 8, 2025 at 8:14 PM
I was not involved in the lawsuit. I have been down a rabbit hole because I spoke with a voter who went to vote Tuesday and she was marked as inactive. She was told she hadn’t voted in a while. We looked at voter file and she was active in April and inactive in November. These are others like her.
Something is wrong with the voter file. This chart is comprised of all 2024 voters in the Nov 03 25 voter file. Count of Inactive and Inactive percent of Total by Ward/Division. Something is inactivating Democrats in Philly.
November 8, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Something is wrong with the voter file. This chart is comprised of all 2024 voters in the Nov 03 25 voter file. Count of Inactive and Inactive percent of Total by Ward/Division. Something is inactivating Democrats in Philly.
17 states reported results fell outside the 90% confidence range based on the margin of error. 17 states. At what point do we believe the results or the survey? Why can we not look into it more and get recounts to prove it one way or another.
October 7, 2025 at 2:10 PM
17 states reported results fell outside the 90% confidence range based on the margin of error. 17 states. At what point do we believe the results or the survey? Why can we not look into it more and get recounts to prove it one way or another.
I have not forgotten but I found something bigger while looking at the race aspect. I have some looked dashboards in the work for Philly.
October 6, 2025 at 10:25 PM
I have not forgotten but I found something bigger while looking at the race aspect. I have some looked dashboards in the work for Philly.
That is a valid argument. I believe the trend is there either way. My biggest issue is the lack of high dem high turnout wards. The data appears too centralized as democratic votes increase.
September 30, 2025 at 12:25 PM
That is a valid argument. I believe the trend is there either way. My biggest issue is the lack of high dem high turnout wards. The data appears too centralized as democratic votes increase.
It is a very interesting tool indeed. I think there is a wealth of information in the raw data provided by the electorate. I feel like it would help answer some questions I have. I have the SURE data already but as you have pointed out it is a living database. So it is impossible to match results
September 30, 2025 at 11:54 AM
It is a very interesting tool indeed. I think there is a wealth of information in the raw data provided by the electorate. I feel like it would help answer some questions I have. I have the SURE data already but as you have pointed out it is a living database. So it is impossible to match results
How is it not valid? My Election Day turnout percent is calculated like this
Total Registered - Mail In = Max Election Day votes
It’s just another way of looking at it. I believe it makes sense. We are trying to ascertain behavior on Election Day. Mail in voters aren’t part of that pool.
Total Registered - Mail In = Max Election Day votes
It’s just another way of looking at it. I believe it makes sense. We are trying to ascertain behavior on Election Day. Mail in voters aren’t part of that pool.
September 30, 2025 at 11:30 AM
How is it not valid? My Election Day turnout percent is calculated like this
Total Registered - Mail In = Max Election Day votes
It’s just another way of looking at it. I believe it makes sense. We are trying to ascertain behavior on Election Day. Mail in voters aren’t part of that pool.
Total Registered - Mail In = Max Election Day votes
It’s just another way of looking at it. I believe it makes sense. We are trying to ascertain behavior on Election Day. Mail in voters aren’t part of that pool.
He does and I have emailed him to see if he has the raw turnout tracker data from election days past available. He has not responded yet.
September 30, 2025 at 11:23 AM
He does and I have emailed him to see if he has the raw turnout tracker data from election days past available. He has not responded yet.
We will connect tomorrow. Just an FYI. My Election Day turnout is based on registered voters in a division minus mail in voters. That should be the eligible pool of voters for Election Day.
It is good to know that each division has its own machines at each polling location I’ll adjust my analysis
It is good to know that each division has its own machines at each polling location I’ll adjust my analysis
September 30, 2025 at 4:01 AM
We will connect tomorrow. Just an FYI. My Election Day turnout is based on registered voters in a division minus mail in voters. That should be the eligible pool of voters for Election Day.
It is good to know that each division has its own machines at each polling location I’ll adjust my analysis
It is good to know that each division has its own machines at each polling location I’ll adjust my analysis
I get that and that is one reason that local knowledge is imperative. One other odd thing I saw was the Guerin Rec Center. There were 3 different polling locations there covering 10 divisions. 2 polling location Harris avg about 50%, turnout was 65%. The one where Harris had 73% turnout was 55%
September 30, 2025 at 3:38 AM
I get that and that is one reason that local knowledge is imperative. One other odd thing I saw was the Guerin Rec Center. There were 3 different polling locations there covering 10 divisions. 2 polling location Harris avg about 50%, turnout was 65%. The one where Harris had 73% turnout was 55%
I will absolutely like to revisit tomorrow. I think on the ground knowledge would be invaluable. The demographics is the rabbit hole that I am currently going down. While I have been in ETA since the beginning I am not as involved in the day to day as I like to do my own thing.
September 30, 2025 at 3:30 AM
I will absolutely like to revisit tomorrow. I think on the ground knowledge would be invaluable. The demographics is the rabbit hole that I am currently going down. While I have been in ETA since the beginning I am not as involved in the day to day as I like to do my own thing.
I don’t have the wards and divisions off hand but I’ll get them in the morning. These two images came from sixtysixwards.com/home/2020/11/
Why were predominately black and younger wards disproportionately impacted. These groups tend more toward the democrat party.
Why were predominately black and younger wards disproportionately impacted. These groups tend more toward the democrat party.
September 30, 2025 at 3:13 AM
I don’t have the wards and divisions off hand but I’ll get them in the morning. These two images came from sixtysixwards.com/home/2020/11/
Why were predominately black and younger wards disproportionately impacted. These groups tend more toward the democrat party.
Why were predominately black and younger wards disproportionately impacted. These groups tend more toward the democrat party.
On CNN on election night they posted this graphic. This was in reference to Bright Hope Baptist. It was the 27th busiest polling location on ED (1713 votes). 90% Harris. It had a turnout of 47% based on rem eligible votes( reg less mail in) Why do we see only high dem precincts with low turnout.
September 30, 2025 at 3:02 AM
On CNN on election night they posted this graphic. This was in reference to Bright Hope Baptist. It was the 27th busiest polling location on ED (1713 votes). 90% Harris. It had a turnout of 47% based on rem eligible votes( reg less mail in) Why do we see only high dem precincts with low turnout.