magnifiquecap.bsky.social
@magnifiquecap.bsky.social
Value orientated small-cap investor
Godt skriv! Swedish operating excellence
July 21, 2025 at 9:18 PM
18/x
All in all, I think the setup here is attractive, at EV/EBITDA 4x 2026e, clearly leveraging their cash position while the business has turned around to growth, and with an optimistic outlook on H2 profitability.

My first write-up on the case:
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Illumin Holdings
Illumin Holdings En kanadensisk turnaround med ett marknadsvärde på 88 miljoner, kontanter på 51 miljoner, genomför omfattande återköp och har återgått till tillväxt med fokus på att gå från transakti...
docs.google.com
July 20, 2025 at 11:21 AM
17/x
In addition, three different insiders have been buying quite aggressively after the Q1 report, totalling ~$600k.
July 20, 2025 at 11:21 AM
16/x
Illumin’s self-service solution. On a 12-month basis, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect an acquisition, especially if the underlying business continues to show consistent growth. Meanwhile looking for acquisitions, they are buying back shares, up to 10% of the float
July 20, 2025 at 11:21 AM
15/x
They are now in a position to actively leverage their balance sheet for acquisitions, having demonstrated consistent growth. They are exploring opportunities to acquire companies with established customer bases, especially those where they see a need for
July 20, 2025 at 11:21 AM
14/x
At the moment, I admire just as much that the new CEO has a very shareholder-centric and proactive approach while the underlying business is being restructured. In the Q1 call, Cairns mentioned the use of the cash pile.
July 20, 2025 at 11:21 AM
13/x
Even in Q1, despite tough market conditions, Illumin delivered strong growth and remained confident about an H2 inflection point. However, these are all optionalities that could turn it from an “index outperformer” into a “multibagger.”
July 20, 2025 at 11:21 AM
12/x
help but notice plenty of similarities with another small Canadian ad tech firm that went through a tremendous turnaround - Zoomd Technologies.
July 20, 2025 at 11:21 AM
11/x
double-digit growth in the high teens for at least the next couple of years. In H2, profitability will be demonstrated, crossing the breakeven revenue target for meaningful margin improvement. There are many early signs of operational excellence at Illumin, where I can’t
July 20, 2025 at 11:21 AM
10/x
As managed service and self-service become a bigger part of the revenue share going forward, this will also benefit margins positively. The impact of the "Cairns effect" on overall growth has been clear since his arrival, and I think we can expect
July 20, 2025 at 11:21 AM
9/x
where self-service clients could benefit greatly from managed services, and vice versa. Q3 2024 was a turning point, since managed services showed a slight YoY increase for the first time in many quarters, followed by +28% growth in Q4.
July 20, 2025 at 11:21 AM
8/x
self-service platform. Cairns wanted to change that, since he saw the margins and the fact that managed services accounted for roughly 50% of revenue. He didn’t like relying solely on self-service high growth. He saw a lot of unused synergy potential,
July 20, 2025 at 11:21 AM
7/x
as the investments ease. Managed service was very disappointing and a key indicator of the turnaround by the new CEO, Simon Cairns. The former CEO had no problem with managed services' revenue decline, despite being a good-margin business. Thereby, he only focused on the
July 20, 2025 at 11:21 AM
6/x
switch all of our business - especially if we don’t have to be beholden in tight times to a $4–6 million upfront commitment.’" These investments in the new tool won’t continue in coming quarters. Management has guided that especially in H2, profitability will be shown,
July 20, 2025 at 11:21 AM
5/x
“It is available elsewhere, but it is typically reserved for large upfront contracts and big commitments. When we talk to these brands, these challenger brands are like, ‘Hey, if you had Forecaster, we might flip you some of our business or we might
July 20, 2025 at 11:21 AM
4/x
The Illumin Forecasting Tool is a new campaign forecasting feature built into the platform, helping marketers predict, plan, and optimize digital campaigns across various media channels before launch.
July 20, 2025 at 11:21 AM
3/x
average spend increase by 30%. They expect profitability to improve drastically in H2, partly due to high expenses in H1, where they had to build up the sales and account management team, and due to investments like the Forecasting Tool launched on May 29.
July 20, 2025 at 11:21 AM
2/x
They mentioned seeing a higher level of activity continuing from the second half of Q1, and more importantly, increased momentum in managed services. Also, the big client that exited self-service was masking the underlying growth, where they added 18 new clients and saw
July 20, 2025 at 11:21 AM
fornuftig underlying growth. Den OEM var også en low-margin kunde, som dermed også bidrager til margin expansion.
July 10, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Godt skriv! Som du selv siger bliver H2 nok pænere end, de tal vi kommer til at se til august. Vigtigt at påpege, at der er én større OEM, som ikke fortsætter ind i 2025, som har en relativ stor indflydelse på den konservative guidance for 2025. Ekskluderer vi den hedder guidance dog +5-12% growth -
July 10, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Thank you for reading!
May 11, 2025 at 1:04 PM