Maggie Perry
@maggieperry.bsky.social
- Election Reporter for 6 News - she/her - Transgender 🏳️⚧️ - Central QLD - 16
If either independent finishes above Labor, I imagine they'd be able to win the seat against the Liberals. I'd personally say I think Moore will finish as LIB v ALP, but it's really anyone's game.
Anyways, thank you for reading and another thread will be out soon!
24/24 🧵
Anyways, thank you for reading and another thread will be out soon!
24/24 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 11:22 AM
If either independent finishes above Labor, I imagine they'd be able to win the seat against the Liberals. I'd personally say I think Moore will finish as LIB v ALP, but it's really anyone's game.
Anyways, thank you for reading and another thread will be out soon!
24/24 🧵
Anyways, thank you for reading and another thread will be out soon!
24/24 🧵
Goodenough is interestingly running an open how-to-vote card, which could very well see Labor elected if he were not to finish in the top 2.
Labor is preferencing both independents above the Libs, while the Greens are preferencing Labor 2nd & Goodenough below the Libs.
23/24 🧵
Labor is preferencing both independents above the Libs, while the Greens are preferencing Labor 2nd & Goodenough below the Libs.
23/24 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Goodenough is interestingly running an open how-to-vote card, which could very well see Labor elected if he were not to finish in the top 2.
Labor is preferencing both independents above the Libs, while the Greens are preferencing Labor 2nd & Goodenough below the Libs.
23/24 🧵
Labor is preferencing both independents above the Libs, while the Greens are preferencing Labor 2nd & Goodenough below the Libs.
23/24 🧵
Goodenough has run a strong election campaign here, but so have multiple other candidates - Including fellow independent Nathan Barton, backed by "Voices of Moore".
Labor, who were just 0.6% from winning last time, are running their candidate Tom French once again.
22/24 🧵
Labor, who were just 0.6% from winning last time, are running their candidate Tom French once again.
22/24 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Goodenough has run a strong election campaign here, but so have multiple other candidates - Including fellow independent Nathan Barton, backed by "Voices of Moore".
Labor, who were just 0.6% from winning last time, are running their candidate Tom French once again.
22/24 🧵
Labor, who were just 0.6% from winning last time, are running their candidate Tom French once again.
22/24 🧵
🔵⚪️ MOORE (WA)
Lastly, the seat of Moore, where a staggering 4-cornered contest has developed.
Incumbent MP Ian Goodenough lost Liberal preselection to former MP Vince Connelly last year, and has since quit the party, posing a serious threat to the Liberals.
21/24 🧵
Lastly, the seat of Moore, where a staggering 4-cornered contest has developed.
Incumbent MP Ian Goodenough lost Liberal preselection to former MP Vince Connelly last year, and has since quit the party, posing a serious threat to the Liberals.
21/24 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 11:22 AM
🔵⚪️ MOORE (WA)
Lastly, the seat of Moore, where a staggering 4-cornered contest has developed.
Incumbent MP Ian Goodenough lost Liberal preselection to former MP Vince Connelly last year, and has since quit the party, posing a serious threat to the Liberals.
21/24 🧵
Lastly, the seat of Moore, where a staggering 4-cornered contest has developed.
Incumbent MP Ian Goodenough lost Liberal preselection to former MP Vince Connelly last year, and has since quit the party, posing a serious threat to the Liberals.
21/24 🧵
Once again, this is one of those seats where the Liberals have faced serious problems in the past few months as Labor have recovered - I mean, at a state level, the Liberals their worst results here. I think Chaney is safe, but still one to keep track of.
20/24 🧵
20/24 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Once again, this is one of those seats where the Liberals have faced serious problems in the past few months as Labor have recovered - I mean, at a state level, the Liberals their worst results here. I think Chaney is safe, but still one to keep track of.
20/24 🧵
20/24 🧵
⚪️ CURTIN (WA)
Onto Curtin! A safe liberal seat for most of its entire existence, Curtin voted for Kate Chaney in 2022, a "teal independent", along with a string of affluent upper class seats across the country.
19/24 🧵
Onto Curtin! A safe liberal seat for most of its entire existence, Curtin voted for Kate Chaney in 2022, a "teal independent", along with a string of affluent upper class seats across the country.
19/24 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 11:22 AM
⚪️ CURTIN (WA)
Onto Curtin! A safe liberal seat for most of its entire existence, Curtin voted for Kate Chaney in 2022, a "teal independent", along with a string of affluent upper class seats across the country.
19/24 🧵
Onto Curtin! A safe liberal seat for most of its entire existence, Curtin voted for Kate Chaney in 2022, a "teal independent", along with a string of affluent upper class seats across the country.
19/24 🧵
She performed well in the state seat of Fremantle, but the federal seat is much bigger, taking in suburbs like Cockburn, which are probably less friendly to independents. Though, if she can overtake the Greens, it's quite possible she catches up to Labor on preferences.
18/24 🧵
18/24 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 11:22 AM
She performed well in the state seat of Fremantle, but the federal seat is much bigger, taking in suburbs like Cockburn, which are probably less friendly to independents. Though, if she can overtake the Greens, it's quite possible she catches up to Labor on preferences.
18/24 🧵
18/24 🧵
Notably, Hulett has differentiated herself from other independent candidates this election - Notably, her platform is considerably to the left of "teal" independents - With policies like free TAFE, universal healthcare, opposing AUKUS, and even a ban on HTV cards.
17/24 🧵
17/24 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Notably, Hulett has differentiated herself from other independent candidates this election - Notably, her platform is considerably to the left of "teal" independents - With policies like free TAFE, universal healthcare, opposing AUKUS, and even a ban on HTV cards.
17/24 🧵
17/24 🧵
🔴 FREMANTLE (WA)
Slightly south of the seat of Tangney is Fremantle, a Labor seat that is seeing a serious challenge from independent Kate Hulett, who was inches away from winning the state seat of Fremantle just 2 months ago.
16/24 🧵
Slightly south of the seat of Tangney is Fremantle, a Labor seat that is seeing a serious challenge from independent Kate Hulett, who was inches away from winning the state seat of Fremantle just 2 months ago.
16/24 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 11:22 AM
🔴 FREMANTLE (WA)
Slightly south of the seat of Tangney is Fremantle, a Labor seat that is seeing a serious challenge from independent Kate Hulett, who was inches away from winning the state seat of Fremantle just 2 months ago.
16/24 🧵
Slightly south of the seat of Tangney is Fremantle, a Labor seat that is seeing a serious challenge from independent Kate Hulett, who was inches away from winning the state seat of Fremantle just 2 months ago.
16/24 🧵
Combine that with polls showing Labor may get a swing towards them in WA, and the "sophomore surge" for the Labor MP Sam Lim, I think it's safe to say that Labor must be feeling pretty good about their chances here now.
(image from pollbludger.net)
15/24 🧵
(image from pollbludger.net)
15/24 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Combine that with polls showing Labor may get a swing towards them in WA, and the "sophomore surge" for the Labor MP Sam Lim, I think it's safe to say that Labor must be feeling pretty good about their chances here now.
(image from pollbludger.net)
15/24 🧵
(image from pollbludger.net)
15/24 🧵
The Liberals were well placed to take this seat last year, but as Labor have surged in the polls, so have their chances in Tangney.
In fact, at the WA state election a month ago, the Liberals saw some of their smallest swings towards them in this seat.
14/24 🧵
In fact, at the WA state election a month ago, the Liberals saw some of their smallest swings towards them in this seat.
14/24 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 11:22 AM
The Liberals were well placed to take this seat last year, but as Labor have surged in the polls, so have their chances in Tangney.
In fact, at the WA state election a month ago, the Liberals saw some of their smallest swings towards them in this seat.
14/24 🧵
In fact, at the WA state election a month ago, the Liberals saw some of their smallest swings towards them in this seat.
14/24 🧵
🔴 TANGNEY (WA)
Back to a more "traditional contest", Tangney has generally been considered one of the closest seats this election.
Formerly a safe Liberal seat, Tangney fell to Labor in one of the biggest shocks of the 2022 election.
13/24 🧵
Back to a more "traditional contest", Tangney has generally been considered one of the closest seats this election.
Formerly a safe Liberal seat, Tangney fell to Labor in one of the biggest shocks of the 2022 election.
13/24 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 11:22 AM
🔴 TANGNEY (WA)
Back to a more "traditional contest", Tangney has generally been considered one of the closest seats this election.
Formerly a safe Liberal seat, Tangney fell to Labor in one of the biggest shocks of the 2022 election.
13/24 🧵
Back to a more "traditional contest", Tangney has generally been considered one of the closest seats this election.
Formerly a safe Liberal seat, Tangney fell to Labor in one of the biggest shocks of the 2022 election.
13/24 🧵
The main problem for the Greens though is that the Liberals are looking increasingly weak in WA, especially in Perth.
It's looking increasingly difficult for the Liberals to overtake Labor and push them into 3rd, which will be a necessity for a Greens win.
12/24 🧵
It's looking increasingly difficult for the Liberals to overtake Labor and push them into 3rd, which will be a necessity for a Greens win.
12/24 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 11:22 AM
The main problem for the Greens though is that the Liberals are looking increasingly weak in WA, especially in Perth.
It's looking increasingly difficult for the Liberals to overtake Labor and push them into 3rd, which will be a necessity for a Greens win.
12/24 🧵
It's looking increasingly difficult for the Liberals to overtake Labor and push them into 3rd, which will be a necessity for a Greens win.
12/24 🧵
Adam Bandt recently named it as one of the Greens' most winnable seats this election, and for good reason.
If the final count were to finish between the Greens and Liberals, Greens candidate and local councillor Sophie Greer could very well pick up the seat.
11/24 🧵
If the final count were to finish between the Greens and Liberals, Greens candidate and local councillor Sophie Greer could very well pick up the seat.
11/24 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Adam Bandt recently named it as one of the Greens' most winnable seats this election, and for good reason.
If the final count were to finish between the Greens and Liberals, Greens candidate and local councillor Sophie Greer could very well pick up the seat.
11/24 🧵
If the final count were to finish between the Greens and Liberals, Greens candidate and local councillor Sophie Greer could very well pick up the seat.
11/24 🧵
🔴 PERTH (WA)
Anyways, lets move onto the seat of Perth!
Traditionally a marginal seat, Labor's margin expanded to 15% last election, seeing incumbent Patrick Gorman easily re-elected against the Libs. Rather, instead of the Libs, it's the Greens looking for a gain.
10/24 🧵
Anyways, lets move onto the seat of Perth!
Traditionally a marginal seat, Labor's margin expanded to 15% last election, seeing incumbent Patrick Gorman easily re-elected against the Libs. Rather, instead of the Libs, it's the Greens looking for a gain.
10/24 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 11:22 AM
🔴 PERTH (WA)
Anyways, lets move onto the seat of Perth!
Traditionally a marginal seat, Labor's margin expanded to 15% last election, seeing incumbent Patrick Gorman easily re-elected against the Libs. Rather, instead of the Libs, it's the Greens looking for a gain.
10/24 🧵
Anyways, lets move onto the seat of Perth!
Traditionally a marginal seat, Labor's margin expanded to 15% last election, seeing incumbent Patrick Gorman easily re-elected against the Libs. Rather, instead of the Libs, it's the Greens looking for a gain.
10/24 🧵
The problem for Davie's lies in 2 things;
1 - Labor are preferencing the Liberals ahead of her
2 - Her popularity is mainly in the seat's rural areas and not the suburbs, where most of the population resides. She can win if she overtakes the Liberals, but it'll be tough.
9/24 🧵
1 - Labor are preferencing the Liberals ahead of her
2 - Her popularity is mainly in the seat's rural areas and not the suburbs, where most of the population resides. She can win if she overtakes the Liberals, but it'll be tough.
9/24 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 11:22 AM
The problem for Davie's lies in 2 things;
1 - Labor are preferencing the Liberals ahead of her
2 - Her popularity is mainly in the seat's rural areas and not the suburbs, where most of the population resides. She can win if she overtakes the Liberals, but it'll be tough.
9/24 🧵
1 - Labor are preferencing the Liberals ahead of her
2 - Her popularity is mainly in the seat's rural areas and not the suburbs, where most of the population resides. She can win if she overtakes the Liberals, but it'll be tough.
9/24 🧵
Another interesting factor here is the Nationals, who are running former WA Nationals leader Mia Davies.
She's established herself as a more centrist figure in the WA Nats, & she has a strong name recognition in Bullwinkel's rural areas, but not so much in the suburbs.
8/24 🧵
She's established herself as a more centrist figure in the WA Nats, & she has a strong name recognition in Bullwinkel's rural areas, but not so much in the suburbs.
8/24 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Another interesting factor here is the Nationals, who are running former WA Nationals leader Mia Davies.
She's established herself as a more centrist figure in the WA Nats, & she has a strong name recognition in Bullwinkel's rural areas, but not so much in the suburbs.
8/24 🧵
She's established herself as a more centrist figure in the WA Nats, & she has a strong name recognition in Bullwinkel's rural areas, but not so much in the suburbs.
8/24 🧵
Although WA could very well swing to Labor again, the problem for Labor in Bullwinkel is that they don't have an incumbent MP (since the seat was, well, just created). This area swung particularly strongly to the Liberals at the state election as well.
7/24 🧵
7/24 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Although WA could very well swing to Labor again, the problem for Labor in Bullwinkel is that they don't have an incumbent MP (since the seat was, well, just created). This area swung particularly strongly to the Liberals at the state election as well.
7/24 🧵
7/24 🧵
🔴 BULLWINKEL (WA)
To the north is the newly created seat of Bullwinkel, which was notionally won by Labor by around 3% last election. It combines safe Labor areas in Perth's outer-east with safe Liberal areas in the Wheatbelt.
6/24 🧵
To the north is the newly created seat of Bullwinkel, which was notionally won by Labor by around 3% last election. It combines safe Labor areas in Perth's outer-east with safe Liberal areas in the Wheatbelt.
6/24 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 11:22 AM
🔴 BULLWINKEL (WA)
To the north is the newly created seat of Bullwinkel, which was notionally won by Labor by around 3% last election. It combines safe Labor areas in Perth's outer-east with safe Liberal areas in the Wheatbelt.
6/24 🧵
To the north is the newly created seat of Bullwinkel, which was notionally won by Labor by around 3% last election. It combines safe Labor areas in Perth's outer-east with safe Liberal areas in the Wheatbelt.
6/24 🧵
Labor saw an 8% swing here in 2022, but it was well below the average swing Labor saw in WA last election (almost 11%) - Likely because of Hastie's personal popularity.
A redistribution has cut the margin to just 1%, but I think Labor's realized too late they could win.
5/24 🧵
A redistribution has cut the margin to just 1%, but I think Labor's realized too late they could win.
5/24 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Labor saw an 8% swing here in 2022, but it was well below the average swing Labor saw in WA last election (almost 11%) - Likely because of Hastie's personal popularity.
A redistribution has cut the margin to just 1%, but I think Labor's realized too late they could win.
5/24 🧵
A redistribution has cut the margin to just 1%, but I think Labor's realized too late they could win.
5/24 🧵
🔵 CANNING (WA)
Here's another formerly safe Liberal seat - Canning, currently held by Andrew Hastie, has entered the spotlight in the past few weeks, with polls showing Labor possibly making *gains* in WA.
4/24 🧵
Here's another formerly safe Liberal seat - Canning, currently held by Andrew Hastie, has entered the spotlight in the past few weeks, with polls showing Labor possibly making *gains* in WA.
4/24 🧵
April 25, 2025 at 11:22 AM
🔵 CANNING (WA)
Here's another formerly safe Liberal seat - Canning, currently held by Andrew Hastie, has entered the spotlight in the past few weeks, with polls showing Labor possibly making *gains* in WA.
4/24 🧵
Here's another formerly safe Liberal seat - Canning, currently held by Andrew Hastie, has entered the spotlight in the past few weeks, with polls showing Labor possibly making *gains* in WA.
4/24 🧵