magellannh.bsky.social
@magellannh.bsky.social
What are you assuming long-term for the all-in average cost of gas power?
If LNG exports continue growing, it's unlikely to be tight in the future, even with today's battery costs. As battery costs fall, the gap widens.
Of course, this only applies where solar/wind is cheap and abundant.
If LNG exports continue growing, it's unlikely to be tight in the future, even with today's battery costs. As battery costs fall, the gap widens.
Of course, this only applies where solar/wind is cheap and abundant.
December 11, 2025 at 3:13 PM
What are you assuming long-term for the all-in average cost of gas power?
If LNG exports continue growing, it's unlikely to be tight in the future, even with today's battery costs. As battery costs fall, the gap widens.
Of course, this only applies where solar/wind is cheap and abundant.
If LNG exports continue growing, it's unlikely to be tight in the future, even with today's battery costs. As battery costs fall, the gap widens.
Of course, this only applies where solar/wind is cheap and abundant.
If needed, regulators could sweeten the deal and give some (even a lot) of the financing savings back to the utilities.
Even doing that would be a win for ratepayers compared to utilities financing safe capex with the costliest financing possible.
Even doing that would be a win for ratepayers compared to utilities financing safe capex with the costliest financing possible.
December 11, 2025 at 2:26 PM
If needed, regulators could sweeten the deal and give some (even a lot) of the financing savings back to the utilities.
Even doing that would be a win for ratepayers compared to utilities financing safe capex with the costliest financing possible.
Even doing that would be a win for ratepayers compared to utilities financing safe capex with the costliest financing possible.
IOUs don't have any sort of "property right" to always get their WACC as a guaranteed ROI. This is especially true when the riskiness of the future cash flows doesn't support it.
It'd be a legal fight, but it'd be worth it considering the massive amounts of new capex ratepayers are looking at
It'd be a legal fight, but it'd be worth it considering the massive amounts of new capex ratepayers are looking at
December 11, 2025 at 2:10 PM
IOUs don't have any sort of "property right" to always get their WACC as a guaranteed ROI. This is especially true when the riskiness of the future cash flows doesn't support it.
It'd be a legal fight, but it'd be worth it considering the massive amounts of new capex ratepayers are looking at
It'd be a legal fight, but it'd be worth it considering the massive amounts of new capex ratepayers are looking at
If financial risk has been transferred to ratepayers, it doesn't make sense for IOUs to earn full ROI as a guaranteed return.
If ratepayers fully own the risk, ratepayer backed finance mechanisms makes more sense (eg muni revenue bonds).
Cost of capital should always be tied to cash flow risk.
If ratepayers fully own the risk, ratepayer backed finance mechanisms makes more sense (eg muni revenue bonds).
Cost of capital should always be tied to cash flow risk.
December 11, 2025 at 1:37 PM
If financial risk has been transferred to ratepayers, it doesn't make sense for IOUs to earn full ROI as a guaranteed return.
If ratepayers fully own the risk, ratepayer backed finance mechanisms makes more sense (eg muni revenue bonds).
Cost of capital should always be tied to cash flow risk.
If ratepayers fully own the risk, ratepayer backed finance mechanisms makes more sense (eg muni revenue bonds).
Cost of capital should always be tied to cash flow risk.
I don't know enough to say what's proper, but I do know I want to be able to continue reading them somehow.
If not the OCA website, maybe create a substack at least?
If not the OCA website, maybe create a substack at least?
December 10, 2025 at 9:31 PM
I don't know enough to say what's proper, but I do know I want to be able to continue reading them somehow.
If not the OCA website, maybe create a substack at least?
If not the OCA website, maybe create a substack at least?
If non-carbon pollution were taxed up front at car purchase time, the tax on ICE cars would need to be $5k-10k/vehicle to offset just air pollution cost.
The now defunct $7500 EV subsidy barely offset this obvious ICE vehicle free riding, let alone account for its climate benefits.
The now defunct $7500 EV subsidy barely offset this obvious ICE vehicle free riding, let alone account for its climate benefits.
December 7, 2025 at 1:52 PM
If non-carbon pollution were taxed up front at car purchase time, the tax on ICE cars would need to be $5k-10k/vehicle to offset just air pollution cost.
The now defunct $7500 EV subsidy barely offset this obvious ICE vehicle free riding, let alone account for its climate benefits.
The now defunct $7500 EV subsidy barely offset this obvious ICE vehicle free riding, let alone account for its climate benefits.
So-called free-market politicians putting their thumbs on the scale for ICE cars again.
They want a new $250/yr fee on EVs, while continuing to let ICE cars off the hook for $500-$800/yr in non-carbon air pollution externalities. That's $/year of ICE exhaust damage - completely ignoring climate.
They want a new $250/yr fee on EVs, while continuing to let ICE cars off the hook for $500-$800/yr in non-carbon air pollution externalities. That's $/year of ICE exhaust damage - completely ignoring climate.
December 7, 2025 at 1:48 PM
So-called free-market politicians putting their thumbs on the scale for ICE cars again.
They want a new $250/yr fee on EVs, while continuing to let ICE cars off the hook for $500-$800/yr in non-carbon air pollution externalities. That's $/year of ICE exhaust damage - completely ignoring climate.
They want a new $250/yr fee on EVs, while continuing to let ICE cars off the hook for $500-$800/yr in non-carbon air pollution externalities. That's $/year of ICE exhaust damage - completely ignoring climate.
Maybe it's a capital constraint thing or else they just don't want too many of their eggs in that basket?
November 25, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Maybe it's a capital constraint thing or else they just don't want too many of their eggs in that basket?
True, but their target is for nuclear to go from its current 5% of generation to maybe 10% by 2040. Even by 2060, their current goal is to get to just 18%.
That seems very modest considering the successes they've reported with their recent nuclear builds.
That seems very modest considering the successes they've reported with their recent nuclear builds.
November 25, 2025 at 2:39 PM
True, but their target is for nuclear to go from its current 5% of generation to maybe 10% by 2040. Even by 2060, their current goal is to get to just 18%.
That seems very modest considering the successes they've reported with their recent nuclear builds.
That seems very modest considering the successes they've reported with their recent nuclear builds.
I wonder if this could have future implications for the level of exports to New England.
We're counting on a lot of energy coming from up north to keep our grid balanced, especially in the winter.
It'd be a shame, for us, if datacenters eat up the excess and leave us with just expensive dregs.
We're counting on a lot of energy coming from up north to keep our grid balanced, especially in the winter.
It'd be a shame, for us, if datacenters eat up the excess and leave us with just expensive dregs.
November 24, 2025 at 5:52 PM
I wonder if this could have future implications for the level of exports to New England.
We're counting on a lot of energy coming from up north to keep our grid balanced, especially in the winter.
It'd be a shame, for us, if datacenters eat up the excess and leave us with just expensive dregs.
We're counting on a lot of energy coming from up north to keep our grid balanced, especially in the winter.
It'd be a shame, for us, if datacenters eat up the excess and leave us with just expensive dregs.
The Jinko's are made in Vietnam or Malaysia, not FL apparently - Tiger Neo N-type 54HL4-(V).
My installer offered a choice originally, and I decided it was worth it to pay a bit more for US made panels.
With the December deadline for the tax credit looming, I didn't want to chance waiting.
My installer offered a choice originally, and I decided it was worth it to pay a bit more for US made panels.
With the December deadline for the tax credit looming, I didn't want to chance waiting.
November 9, 2025 at 4:45 PM
The Jinko's are made in Vietnam or Malaysia, not FL apparently - Tiger Neo N-type 54HL4-(V).
My installer offered a choice originally, and I decided it was worth it to pay a bit more for US made panels.
With the December deadline for the tax credit looming, I didn't want to chance waiting.
My installer offered a choice originally, and I decided it was worth it to pay a bit more for US made panels.
With the December deadline for the tax credit looming, I didn't want to chance waiting.
Interesting. Just finished a residential solar install. We originally spec'd Qcells from Georgia, but our installer couldn't source them in time. This is probably the reason.
Had to switch to Jinkos instead. They weren't my first choice, but we did save $35 per panel for roughly similar specs.
Had to switch to Jinkos instead. They weren't my first choice, but we did save $35 per panel for roughly similar specs.
November 9, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Interesting. Just finished a residential solar install. We originally spec'd Qcells from Georgia, but our installer couldn't source them in time. This is probably the reason.
Had to switch to Jinkos instead. They weren't my first choice, but we did save $35 per panel for roughly similar specs.
Had to switch to Jinkos instead. They weren't my first choice, but we did save $35 per panel for roughly similar specs.
Happy BEV owner w/PHEV anecdote. My wife isn't a techie and wouldn't consider a BEV. She's a longtime Rav4 fan and when we upgraded, I talked her into the Prime.
I thought I'd be the one plugging it. Boy was I wrong - She loves driving in electric mode vs gas that she plugs it in nightly.
I thought I'd be the one plugging it. Boy was I wrong - She loves driving in electric mode vs gas that she plugs it in nightly.
October 2, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Happy BEV owner w/PHEV anecdote. My wife isn't a techie and wouldn't consider a BEV. She's a longtime Rav4 fan and when we upgraded, I talked her into the Prime.
I thought I'd be the one plugging it. Boy was I wrong - She loves driving in electric mode vs gas that she plugs it in nightly.
I thought I'd be the one plugging it. Boy was I wrong - She loves driving in electric mode vs gas that she plugs it in nightly.
I checked with ChatGPT and it had trouble finding good utility factor data for the fleet. Lots of early studies claiming 60-75% of miles driven were electric, but they don't seem very high quality and there wasn't much follow up. What do you think the avg fleet utility factor was?
October 2, 2025 at 3:22 PM
I checked with ChatGPT and it had trouble finding good utility factor data for the fleet. Lots of early studies claiming 60-75% of miles driven were electric, but they don't seem very high quality and there wasn't much follow up. What do you think the avg fleet utility factor was?
Can't wait to watch it...
October 1, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Can't wait to watch it...
For a long but great explanation of how Toyota hybrids work, this video is excellent imo (also covers Rav4 Prime PHEV):
www.youtube.com/watch?v=O61W...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=O61W...
Understanding the Toyota RAV4 Hybrid
YouTube video by WeberAuto
www.youtube.com
October 1, 2025 at 4:59 PM
For a long but great explanation of how Toyota hybrids work, this video is excellent imo (also covers Rav4 Prime PHEV):
www.youtube.com/watch?v=O61W...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=O61W...
To be fair, it looks like it's due to record rainfall that's 90% above normal. Reservoirs are overflowing forcing hydro plants to either run or divert the excess water.
Still, this does show the risk of climate variability on the finances of generators with climate dependent grids.
Still, this does show the risk of climate variability on the finances of generators with climate dependent grids.
September 22, 2025 at 12:05 PM
To be fair, it looks like it's due to record rainfall that's 90% above normal. Reservoirs are overflowing forcing hydro plants to either run or divert the excess water.
Still, this does show the risk of climate variability on the finances of generators with climate dependent grids.
Still, this does show the risk of climate variability on the finances of generators with climate dependent grids.
Not only that, more heat pump usage and less gas boilers also means less strain on the gas pipeline network.
September 13, 2025 at 10:51 PM
Not only that, more heat pump usage and less gas boilers also means less strain on the gas pipeline network.
These two quotes from the report ought to provide a big wakeup call to the US.
"Chinese corporations invested ten times more in R&D in the electricity sector than their US counterparts"
"China’s share of worldwide patent applications in clean energy technologies has risen... to around 75%"
"Chinese corporations invested ten times more in R&D in the electricity sector than their US counterparts"
"China’s share of worldwide patent applications in clean energy technologies has risen... to around 75%"
September 10, 2025 at 1:53 PM
These two quotes from the report ought to provide a big wakeup call to the US.
"Chinese corporations invested ten times more in R&D in the electricity sector than their US counterparts"
"China’s share of worldwide patent applications in clean energy technologies has risen... to around 75%"
"Chinese corporations invested ten times more in R&D in the electricity sector than their US counterparts"
"China’s share of worldwide patent applications in clean energy technologies has risen... to around 75%"
Great article. So much writing about this misses the most important consideration, which is who holds the risk of getting it wrong - investors or ratepayers. This article highlights that aspect and explains it clearly.
August 21, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Great article. So much writing about this misses the most important consideration, which is who holds the risk of getting it wrong - investors or ratepayers. This article highlights that aspect and explains it clearly.