Please join us in Sunny Philadelphia, Friday evening Sep 5, for a chat about what went wrong and right during the COVID pandemic response. Hosted by Temple University.

Reserve a spot on the Braver Angels website here: www.eventbrite.com/e/a-covid-pa...

Our best-case analysis in this paper was done under 2-year mean immune duration which really means 39% of individuals losing immune memory after one year. Even in this case, our projected mean is 99,000 deaths per year under 45% vax coverage and 15% treatment coverage. 6/

Finally, we looked specifically at ASMQ-PPQ & what might happen if we deploy this TACT in a scenario where the triple-resistant genotype is already present at genotype frequency X (the x-axis below). The answer is that pre-existing triple resistance reduces our chances of malaria elimination. 13/

The gray box plots below show the 580Y (this is an art-resistance marker) allele frequency after 10 years under baseline ACT use. The blue bars show this allele frequency under ALAQ use, & red bars under ASMQ-PPQ use. The % labels show you how much lower 580Y frequency is compared to baseline 6/

The graph below shows the projected evolution of artemisinin resistance (left panel) under regular ACT usage (DHA-PPQ in this case, gray line). The overlaid red and blue lines show this evolutionary pattern under triple ACT use: much slower slower evolution of resistance over 10 years 5/