Jeff Lukas
@lukasclimate.bsky.social
Researcher, science translator, consultant in Colorado. Weather/climate impacts on water resources, society, ecosystems. Recovering dendrochronologist. Goal: No surprises, well-informed decisions.
Yeah Maynard! I grew up next door in slightly bigger Sudbury.
October 18, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Yeah Maynard! I grew up next door in slightly bigger Sudbury.
Upper San Juan SNOTEL is at 9.8" precip in ~100 hours as of 5am 10/14. Highest among the San Juan Mts SNOTELs, but 5 others are at >7" so far.
October 14, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Upper San Juan SNOTEL is at 9.8" precip in ~100 hours as of 5am 10/14. Highest among the San Juan Mts SNOTELs, but 5 others are at >7" so far.
Yeah, the max 2" isohyet isn't cutting it for TC precip!
It was new to me that the 8.05" in 24h at Gladstone had been thrown under the bus, first in the paper you linked, and then by Ed T and Tye P: damsafety.org/content/revi...
Upper San Juan SNOTEL picked up 3.9" in 24h a few days ago.
It was new to me that the 8.05" in 24h at Gladstone had been thrown under the bus, first in the paper you linked, and then by Ed T and Tye P: damsafety.org/content/revi...
Upper San Juan SNOTEL picked up 3.9" in 24h a few days ago.
Review of the Gladstone, Colorado, Rainfall Observation, October 5, 1911, and its Impact on Site-Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) Values | Association of State Dam Safety
The October 4-6, 1911, rainstorm over the southwestern US produced large rainfall amounts and significant flooding. The eight inch daily rainfall total reported on October 5 is an extreme amount for t...
damsafety.org
October 13, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Yeah, the max 2" isohyet isn't cutting it for TC precip!
It was new to me that the 8.05" in 24h at Gladstone had been thrown under the bus, first in the paper you linked, and then by Ed T and Tye P: damsafety.org/content/revi...
Upper San Juan SNOTEL picked up 3.9" in 24h a few days ago.
It was new to me that the 8.05" in 24h at Gladstone had been thrown under the bus, first in the paper you linked, and then by Ed T and Tye P: damsafety.org/content/revi...
Upper San Juan SNOTEL picked up 3.9" in 24h a few days ago.
Link: hermes.cde.state.co.us/islandora/ob... - p. 662-671 for the Oct 1911 storm
hermes.cde.state.co.us
October 13, 2025 at 7:59 PM
Link: hermes.cde.state.co.us/islandora/ob... - p. 662-671 for the Oct 1911 storm
And ICMYI, this event is on the CO-NM REPS storm list as a Tropical storm (SPAS-1107; "Wagon Wheel, CO") with a grid max of 7.88" and obs max of 5.08".
October 13, 2025 at 7:57 PM
And ICMYI, this event is on the CO-NM REPS storm list as a Tropical storm (SPAS-1107; "Wagon Wheel, CO") with a grid max of 7.88" and obs max of 5.08".
This 1986 NWS tech memo on EPac storms that impacted SW US includes the Oct 1911 event, w/ hand-drawn TC track and details on the synoptic setup--see p. 23,25-26. www.weather.gov/media/wrh/on...
The TC itself has its own Wikipedia page as the "1911 Sonora hurricane."
The TC itself has its own Wikipedia page as the "1911 Sonora hurricane."
www.weather.gov
October 13, 2025 at 7:41 PM
This 1986 NWS tech memo on EPac storms that impacted SW US includes the Oct 1911 event, w/ hand-drawn TC track and details on the synoptic setup--see p. 23,25-26. www.weather.gov/media/wrh/on...
The TC itself has its own Wikipedia page as the "1911 Sonora hurricane."
The TC itself has its own Wikipedia page as the "1911 Sonora hurricane."
Oh, this is heartbreaking. The 15 small businesses impacted represent a big chunk of Ned. A local realtor has a gofundme up: www.gofundme.com/f/aid-nederl...
Donate to Aid Nederland Shops and Employees Post-Fire, organized by Dan Vollmer
This go fund me is to help support the business owners and employees affected … Dan Vollmer needs your support for Aid Nederland Shops and Employees Post-Fire
www.gofundme.com
October 9, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Oh, this is heartbreaking. The 15 small businesses impacted represent a big chunk of Ned. A local realtor has a gofundme up: www.gofundme.com/f/aid-nederl...
Ack--that should be the NRCS National Water and Climate Center, NWCC
October 8, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Ack--that should be the NRCS National Water and Climate Center, NWCC
And FWIW, it's not even accurate--the Snow and Water Interactive Map is being updated with new obs from the SNOTEL observing networks. So either NRCS National Climate and Water Center staff are "essential" (I hope), or that their systems can run unattended, at least for a while.
October 8, 2025 at 5:36 PM
And FWIW, it's not even accurate--the Snow and Water Interactive Map is being updated with new obs from the SNOTEL observing networks. So either NRCS National Climate and Water Center staff are "essential" (I hope), or that their systems can run unattended, at least for a while.
As a reader: "Talent" is well supported by the evidence :)
September 6, 2025 at 11:01 PM
As a reader: "Talent" is well supported by the evidence :)
Kathie, congrats on the new role!
August 28, 2025 at 2:09 PM
Kathie, congrats on the new role!
Shit, this is sad to see. The ABQ bosque is a wonderful oasis for all the local biota, human and non-human.
August 26, 2025 at 11:03 PM
Shit, this is sad to see. The ABQ bosque is a wonderful oasis for all the local biota, human and non-human.
Can confirm. Zero mentions of the Fundamental Thing That Can Not Be Named.
Also, 'change(s)' is used in the context of weather and climate all of two times.
Also, 'change(s)' is used in the context of weather and climate all of two times.
August 25, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Can confirm. Zero mentions of the Fundamental Thing That Can Not Be Named.
Also, 'change(s)' is used in the context of weather and climate all of two times.
Also, 'change(s)' is used in the context of weather and climate all of two times.
Yeah, the deliberate conflation of (a) commercial LLMs with billions of parameters that handle millions of queries daily with (b) far smaller ML models tuned for very specific science and engineering tasks, in order to pose "AI" as a climate necessity--that's pretty egregious.
August 22, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Yeah, the deliberate conflation of (a) commercial LLMs with billions of parameters that handle millions of queries daily with (b) far smaller ML models tuned for very specific science and engineering tasks, in order to pose "AI" as a climate necessity--that's pretty egregious.
Yikes. It's currently 25.5 C in my upstairs home office, and I'm feeling sluggish enough that I'll kick the A/C on soon. Can't be a good thing to spend entire school days in rooms hotter than this. (To say nothing of the indoor air quality.)
July 2, 2025 at 6:56 PM
Yikes. It's currently 25.5 C in my upstairs home office, and I'm feeling sluggish enough that I'll kick the A/C on soon. Can't be a good thing to spend entire school days in rooms hotter than this. (To say nothing of the indoor air quality.)
Had no idea Somervell was an accomplished painter! He also took one of the greatest mountaineering photographs of all time, on the 1924 Everest expedition, of teammate Edward Norton near his high point of 28,126'. Still had an amazing eye for composition while oxygen-deprived and exhausted.
July 2, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Had no idea Somervell was an accomplished painter! He also took one of the greatest mountaineering photographs of all time, on the 1924 Everest expedition, of teammate Edward Norton near his high point of 28,126'. Still had an amazing eye for composition while oxygen-deprived and exhausted.
Cooke wouldn't be the first Commissioner in recent decades to have come from a high-profile Basin-state job (Estevan Lopez), but this feels...different. Is WH/Interior signaling a tilt towards Lower Basin interests here?
Beyond that, very relieved it's someone who knows what the hell they're doing.
Beyond that, very relieved it's someone who knows what the hell they're doing.
June 17, 2025 at 10:46 PM
Cooke wouldn't be the first Commissioner in recent decades to have come from a high-profile Basin-state job (Estevan Lopez), but this feels...different. Is WH/Interior signaling a tilt towards Lower Basin interests here?
Beyond that, very relieved it's someone who knows what the hell they're doing.
Beyond that, very relieved it's someone who knows what the hell they're doing.
We've been in Lafayette since 2021, in Louisville for 5 years before that. Our lived experience matches the data--it's gotten a *lot* noisier. In addition to the increased flight-school traffic, it feels like the private/corporate jet flights have also jumped up.
May 28, 2025 at 3:27 PM
We've been in Lafayette since 2021, in Louisville for 5 years before that. Our lived experience matches the data--it's gotten a *lot* noisier. In addition to the increased flight-school traffic, it feels like the private/corporate jet flights have also jumped up.
Last August we had a family vacay in Truckee, staying in a house in Tahoe Donner built in 2017. I was very surprised that such a recent build appeared to have zero firewise features, and no fuel mitigation, given the high risk of the site.
May 6, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Last August we had a family vacay in Truckee, staying in a house in Tahoe Donner built in 2017. I was very surprised that such a recent build appeared to have zero firewise features, and no fuel mitigation, given the high risk of the site.
1PointFive's website:
"Mission: Deliver solutions that help curb global temperature rise to 1.5°C"
Press release Nov 2023:
"Occidental and BlackRock Form Joint Venture [through Oxy subsidiary 1PointFive] to Develop STRATOS, the World's Largest Direct Air Capture Plant"
Greenwashing, at scale.
"Mission: Deliver solutions that help curb global temperature rise to 1.5°C"
Press release Nov 2023:
"Occidental and BlackRock Form Joint Venture [through Oxy subsidiary 1PointFive] to Develop STRATOS, the World's Largest Direct Air Capture Plant"
Greenwashing, at scale.
April 10, 2025 at 2:13 PM
1PointFive's website:
"Mission: Deliver solutions that help curb global temperature rise to 1.5°C"
Press release Nov 2023:
"Occidental and BlackRock Form Joint Venture [through Oxy subsidiary 1PointFive] to Develop STRATOS, the World's Largest Direct Air Capture Plant"
Greenwashing, at scale.
"Mission: Deliver solutions that help curb global temperature rise to 1.5°C"
Press release Nov 2023:
"Occidental and BlackRock Form Joint Venture [through Oxy subsidiary 1PointFive] to Develop STRATOS, the World's Largest Direct Air Capture Plant"
Greenwashing, at scale.