13/ This would be a dangerous scenario for Europe. Feel free to share your thoughts, I'm open to different or supportive arguments.

12/ I’m not sure how this conflict will evolve, but one thing is clear: less support for Georgia will weaken Armenia.

If the deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan falls apart, Russia will likely take advantage of the situation and easily control Armenia after securing Georgia.

11/ I don’t know what Turkey will do to prevent this, but if Turkey allows Russia to fully control Georgia, whether politically or militarily, it could lead to the same situation with Armenia.

10/ By controlling the region’s economic corridors, Russia could put more pressure on Europe, weaken Azerbaijan.

If Russia gains control of these countries and strengthens its connection with Iran, it will have enormous power and control over countries in Asia too.

9/ Russia’s ultimate goal is to control the South Caucasus and the best way to do that is through Georgia. The ongoing Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict gives Russia time to secure Georgia, then Armenia and strengthen its ties with Iran.

8/ Russia doesn’t want Azerbaijan getting closer to Turkey, but it needs a way to pressure Armenia. That’s what’s happening between these two countries right now.

7/ Iran also plays a role. Iran doesn’t want Azerbaijan to become too strong or get closer to Turkey. This would weaken Iran's ties to Russia, which pass through Georgia and Armenia.

6/ Azerbaijan’s media seems to be creating a reason for military action against Armenia, possibly preparing the people for it.

One thing is clear: Russia doesn’t want to lose Armenia, but is allowing Azerbaijan to act freely. Maybe this is how Russia punishes Armenia.

5/ However, the peace agreement has become unstable. There have been multiple shootings on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. Russia might be trying to stop them from becoming too friendly.

4/ If Georgia loses its strategic value, Western countries might reduce their support, as the benefits of backing Georgia would become smaller. This scenario seemed likely after the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal.

3/ The Anaklia deep-sea port is a key asset for Georgia, but with the current situation and a pro-Russian government, Russia could threaten the port’s future. Russia has already set up Naval base in Ochamchire, which poses a serious threat to the port.

2/ Georgia is mainly important because it connects East and West. But if Armenia and Azerbaijan become closer and if Europe lets Turkey have more power in the region, Georgia could lose its significance.

1/ A few days ago, when Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed on a peace treaty, I was happy but also worried, because it could mean bad news for Georgia. If these two countries get closer, Georgia’s role in the region might shrink, especially under the current regime.