Ludwig Von Mises
@ludwigvonmises.bsky.social
Tu ne cede malis, sed contra audentior ito
(@NationsWealth in other place)
(@NationsWealth in other place)
I tried nano bana myself solving an integral on x and it did it. it tried to imitate my hand writing too
November 27, 2025 at 5:48 AM
I tried nano bana myself solving an integral on x and it did it. it tried to imitate my hand writing too
John, this reminded me accounting rule FAS-157 by the Financial Accounting Standards Board.
cc @hussmanjp.bsky.social
(Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles, J. Huerta De Soto)
cc @hussmanjp.bsky.social
(Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles, J. Huerta De Soto)
November 15, 2025 at 10:58 AM
John, this reminded me accounting rule FAS-157 by the Financial Accounting Standards Board.
cc @hussmanjp.bsky.social
(Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles, J. Huerta De Soto)
cc @hussmanjp.bsky.social
(Money, Bank Credit, and Economic Cycles, J. Huerta De Soto)
November 13, 2025 at 1:43 PM
exponentially on a log scale. only the Fed could do it.
November 12, 2025 at 9:47 AM
exponentially on a log scale. only the Fed could do it.
it will be another "buy the dip opportunity". We had so many in the last +10 years. Let's call it "The AI hiccup" ?
We've been trained as monkeys for decades to not fight the Fed & buy any dip.
QT is done now. Soon QE will be back. Brrr.. I know 'until investors are not risk adverse... yada yada'
We've been trained as monkeys for decades to not fight the Fed & buy any dip.
QT is done now. Soon QE will be back. Brrr.. I know 'until investors are not risk adverse... yada yada'
November 12, 2025 at 9:43 AM
it will be another "buy the dip opportunity". We had so many in the last +10 years. Let's call it "The AI hiccup" ?
We've been trained as monkeys for decades to not fight the Fed & buy any dip.
QT is done now. Soon QE will be back. Brrr.. I know 'until investors are not risk adverse... yada yada'
We've been trained as monkeys for decades to not fight the Fed & buy any dip.
QT is done now. Soon QE will be back. Brrr.. I know 'until investors are not risk adverse... yada yada'
"With our broadest estimate of prospective S&P 500 10-year nominal total returns down to just 2.9%", 14 Oct 2013
ps we got 14% over 12-year
pps I'm convinced this bubble will end but I have been very wrong for a very long time too
cc @hussmanjp.bsky.social
www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc13101...
ps we got 14% over 12-year
pps I'm convinced this bubble will end but I have been very wrong for a very long time too
cc @hussmanjp.bsky.social
www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc13101...
October 30, 2025 at 7:05 AM
"With our broadest estimate of prospective S&P 500 10-year nominal total returns down to just 2.9%", 14 Oct 2013
ps we got 14% over 12-year
pps I'm convinced this bubble will end but I have been very wrong for a very long time too
cc @hussmanjp.bsky.social
www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc13101...
ps we got 14% over 12-year
pps I'm convinced this bubble will end but I have been very wrong for a very long time too
cc @hussmanjp.bsky.social
www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc13101...
The stopped QT. This will not normilised any time soon. The way will be a sovereign debt crisis. Someday in the future.
@hussmanjp.bsky.social
@hussmanjp.bsky.social
October 29, 2025 at 6:11 PM
The stopped QT. This will not normilised any time soon. The way will be a sovereign debt crisis. Someday in the future.
@hussmanjp.bsky.social
@hussmanjp.bsky.social
What's the story of those dots? extreme valuation followed by poor results as expected
October 29, 2025 at 5:44 PM
What's the story of those dots? extreme valuation followed by poor results as expected
This is another one... the yellow spaces and the duration of this bubble is extraordinary... that is truly being different
October 26, 2025 at 10:05 PM
This is another one... the yellow spaces and the duration of this bubble is extraordinary... that is truly being different
October 26, 2025 at 9:41 PM
What's a bubble?
cc @hussmanjp.bsky.social
cc @hussmanjp.bsky.social
October 15, 2025 at 11:50 AM
What's a bubble?
cc @hussmanjp.bsky.social
cc @hussmanjp.bsky.social
Every time after each bubble pops, the central banks print and print and print again, pushing real rates to negative levels for more than a decade!
October 13, 2025 at 9:16 AM
Every time after each bubble pops, the central banks print and print and print again, pushing real rates to negative levels for more than a decade!
Looks like since 2022 the relationship between real rates and gold broke down
October 6, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Looks like since 2022 the relationship between real rates and gold broke down
Apart from that episode, bond yields rarely change by much during the first year of a recession.
what about year 2 and 3? We hardly know when the recession starts and only with hindsight
what about year 2 and 3? We hardly know when the recession starts and only with hindsight
October 3, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Apart from that episode, bond yields rarely change by much during the first year of a recession.
what about year 2 and 3? We hardly know when the recession starts and only with hindsight
what about year 2 and 3? We hardly know when the recession starts and only with hindsight
Ag is breaking I think
October 1, 2025 at 3:17 PM
Ag is breaking I think
So cheap at 250 PE and declining revenues. Bargain.
October 1, 2025 at 9:20 AM
So cheap at 250 PE and declining revenues. Bargain.
cycle... lol... what cycle?
September 29, 2025 at 3:12 PM
cycle... lol... what cycle?
Doesn't the hedge have a negative carry? Even after last year's adjustment, half of the profits since the lows of April 25 have been given back. That's the diagonal advance with time decay instead of fluctuations. ps ”The impediment to action advances action. What stands in the way becomes the way”
September 26, 2025 at 3:58 AM
Doesn't the hedge have a negative carry? Even after last year's adjustment, half of the profits since the lows of April 25 have been given back. That's the diagonal advance with time decay instead of fluctuations. ps ”The impediment to action advances action. What stands in the way becomes the way”
Apologies, I couldn't find a more up-to-date chart of Russell Jackson. You wrote that compared to 2000 or 2008 this bubble takes all decides to nose bleeding valuation levels. Is it still possible to have a meaningful stock section with a margin of safety here?
September 25, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Apologies, I couldn't find a more up-to-date chart of Russell Jackson. You wrote that compared to 2000 or 2008 this bubble takes all decides to nose bleeding valuation levels. Is it still possible to have a meaningful stock section with a margin of safety here?
Excluding 2020 and 1979, long bond yields are flat during the first two years of a recession.
September 25, 2025 at 6:48 AM
Excluding 2020 and 1979, long bond yields are flat during the first two years of a recession.