Lucy Goodfellow
@lucygoodfellow.bsky.social
Infectious disease modelling & demography @ LSHTM
New pre-print looking at social contacts and mixing by age, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status in the UK.
We found that contacts have decreased since before COVID, but are up from figures found in 2022. We also show what this means for infectious disease dynamics in a novel pathogen outbreak 👇
We found that contacts have decreased since before COVID, but are up from figures found in 2022. We also show what this means for infectious disease dynamics in a novel pathogen outbreak 👇
Got a number in mind?
A new pre-print by @lshtm.bsky.social colleagues surveyed 13,000 participants, and found it's about 9 per day in the current era.
It also looks at how social mixing varies with age, ethnicity and social economic status. Link to paper:
A new pre-print by @lshtm.bsky.social colleagues surveyed 13,000 participants, and found it's about 9 per day in the current era.
It also looks at how social mixing varies with age, ethnicity and social economic status. Link to paper:
Post-pandemic social contact patterns in the United Kingdom: the Connect survey
Close-contact and respiratory infectious diseases are spread through social interactions, which were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and wider demographic and cultural changes. To estimate post-pand...
www.medrxiv.org
August 20, 2025 at 8:33 AM
New pre-print looking at social contacts and mixing by age, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status in the UK.
We found that contacts have decreased since before COVID, but are up from figures found in 2022. We also show what this means for infectious disease dynamics in a novel pathogen outbreak 👇
We found that contacts have decreased since before COVID, but are up from figures found in 2022. We also show what this means for infectious disease dynamics in a novel pathogen outbreak 👇
Reposted by Lucy Goodfellow
Great to see our work on the value of better influenza vaccines published in Plos Med today. Led by the amazingly talented @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social, together with @rozeggo.bsky.social, @markjit.bsky.social and other colleagues @cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social and elsewhere.
doi.org/10.1371/jour...
doi.org/10.1371/jour...
The potential global health impact and cost-effectiveness of next-generation influenza vaccines: A modelling analysis
Using influenza surveillance data, Lucy Goodfellow and colleagues model the potential global health impacts and cost effectiveness of next-generation influenza vaccines designed to increase efficacy a...
doi.org
July 1, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Great to see our work on the value of better influenza vaccines published in Plos Med today. Led by the amazingly talented @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social, together with @rozeggo.bsky.social, @markjit.bsky.social and other colleagues @cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social and elsewhere.
doi.org/10.1371/jour...
doi.org/10.1371/jour...
Reposted by Lucy Goodfellow
Reposted by Lucy Goodfellow
Happy to have played part in this with most of the hard work done by the amazing @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social and Carl Pearson. @cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social
Congrats to team member Carl Pearson and his co-authors @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social and @mert0248.bsky.social. An important tool for a pervasive problem in modeling infectious disease data www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
paramix : An R package for parameter discretisation in compartmental models, with application to calculating years of life lost
Compartmental infectious disease models are used to calculate disease transmission, estimate underlying rates, forecast future burden, and compare benefits across intervention scenarios. These models ...
www.medrxiv.org
December 6, 2024 at 4:25 PM
Happy to have played part in this with most of the hard work done by the amazing @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social and Carl Pearson. @cmmid-lshtm.bsky.social
Reposted by Lucy Goodfellow
Congrats to team member Carl Pearson and his co-authors @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social and @mert0248.bsky.social. An important tool for a pervasive problem in modeling infectious disease data www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
paramix : An R package for parameter discretisation in compartmental models, with application to calculating years of life lost
Compartmental infectious disease models are used to calculate disease transmission, estimate underlying rates, forecast future burden, and compare benefits across intervention scenarios. These models ...
www.medrxiv.org
December 6, 2024 at 4:03 PM
Congrats to team member Carl Pearson and his co-authors @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social and @mert0248.bsky.social. An important tool for a pervasive problem in modeling infectious disease data www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
Reposted by Lucy Goodfellow
We used a transmission model to understand differences in Covid severity and mortality in different socioeconomic strata in England.
The model had different demography and underlying health status by strata.
Led by @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social
bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....
The model had different demography and underlying health status by strata.
Led by @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social
bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....
COVID-19 inequalities in England: a mathematical modelling study of transmission risk and clinical vulnerability by socioeconomic status - BMC Medicine
Background The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in major inequalities in infection and disease burden between areas of varying socioeconomic deprivation in many countries, including England. Areas of higher...
bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com
November 20, 2024 at 12:05 PM
We used a transmission model to understand differences in Covid severity and mortality in different socioeconomic strata in England.
The model had different demography and underlying health status by strata.
Led by @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social
bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....
The model had different demography and underlying health status by strata.
Led by @lucygoodfellow.bsky.social
bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....