Policy takeaway: one-size-fits-all aid strategies don’t work. Aid needs to be context-sensitive, especially in fragile settings.

Why? The effects depend on how aid interacts with local political & social dynamics. Similar patterns seen in Afghanistan.

🧩 Key findings:
– Health & social protection aid decreases violence
– Infrastructure have no clear effect on violence
– Education & economic projects may even have adverse effects.

The study analyzes 100+ districts using spatially and sectorally disaggregated data. Methods include coarsened exact matching combined with panel regression & diff-in-diff on buffer zones.