Liviu Horovitz
@liviuhorovitz.bsky.social
Researcher @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social & leading #STAND | once @csds.bsky.social, @johnshopkinssais.bsky.social, the CSS @ethz.ch or @belfercenter.bsky.social | nukes | transatlantic stuff | qual & archives buff
A new CGSR edited by @kimberlypeh.bsky.social & Michael Albertson argues that the 21st-century tech race talk oversimplifies reality. Bottom line: Tech competition isn’t solved by simply doing more - it’s tied to strategy, alliances, industry & limited resources 10/10
cgsr.llnl.gov
November 21, 2025 at 7:46 AM
A new CGSR edited by @kimberlypeh.bsky.social & Michael Albertson argues that the 21st-century tech race talk oversimplifies reality. Bottom line: Tech competition isn’t solved by simply doing more - it’s tied to strategy, alliances, industry & limited resources 10/10
Throughout history, Israel has preemptively destroyed nuclear facilities in Iraq (1981), Syria (2007), and Iran (2025). Dany Shoham from the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies compares and contrasts these strikes 9/10
Israel’s Attacks on Nuclear Facilities in Iraq, Syria and Iran
Over the past 44 years, Israel has used its intelligence and air force capabilities to attack and incapacitate the weapons-oriented nuclear programs of Iraq, Syria, and Iran. The following analysis co
besacenter.org
November 21, 2025 at 7:42 AM
Throughout history, Israel has preemptively destroyed nuclear facilities in Iraq (1981), Syria (2007), and Iran (2025). Dany Shoham from the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies compares and contrasts these strikes 9/10
Without any explanation, @state-department.bsky.social deleted 15 pages from a Reagan-era FRUS volume on how the 1983 Able Archer drill nearly sparked nuclear war. The move threatens the integrity of America’s official diplomatic record, argues Nate Jones @washingtonpost.com 8/10
Analysis | State Department erases 15 pages of nuclear history — with no warning
Key historical records about the incident during the Reagan administration, known as the Able Archer 83 War Scare, were removed without explanation.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 21, 2025 at 7:42 AM
Without any explanation, @state-department.bsky.social deleted 15 pages from a Reagan-era FRUS volume on how the 1983 Able Archer drill nearly sparked nuclear war. The move threatens the integrity of America’s official diplomatic record, argues Nate Jones @washingtonpost.com 8/10
The Golden Dome missile-defense project is at risk - not because the tech is impossible, but because a Pentagon gag order has left Congress, industry, allies & the public in the dark, jeopardizing funding, planning & support, controversially argues @csis.org's Tom Karako @breakingdefense.com 7/10
Golden Dome: Loosen the gag order, and start talking - Breaking Defense
If the Pentagon does not start explaining Golden Dome, it will never be built, says Tom Karako of CSIS.
breakingdefense.com
November 21, 2025 at 7:40 AM
The Golden Dome missile-defense project is at risk - not because the tech is impossible, but because a Pentagon gag order has left Congress, industry, allies & the public in the dark, jeopardizing funding, planning & support, controversially argues @csis.org's Tom Karako @breakingdefense.com 7/10
China has been quietly reviving its Lop Nur nuclear weapons testing site. Since at least 2020, new roads, horizontal tunnels for lower-yield tests & vertical shafts for higher-yield weapons have been built, reports @washingtonpost.com 6/10
China rapidly expands nuclear test site as Trump revives Cold War tension
The quiet expansion of Beijing’s remote nuclear weapons complex, Lop Nur, points to years of preparation for a potential return to a Cold War-era arms race.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 21, 2025 at 7:38 AM
China has been quietly reviving its Lop Nur nuclear weapons testing site. Since at least 2020, new roads, horizontal tunnels for lower-yield tests & vertical shafts for higher-yield weapons have been built, reports @washingtonpost.com 6/10
US & Saudi Arabia paved the way for a nuclear tech-sharing deal, reports @bloomberg.com. A 123 agreement with customary non-proliferation requirements is yet to be signed & it’s unclear if the usual US-“gold standard” ban on enrichment & reprocessing will be included 5/10
US Reaches Initial Deal With Saudi Arabia on Nuclear Sharing
US negotiations with Saudi Arabia on a long-sought nuclear technology-sharing deal have been completed, potentially opening the door for American companies to build reactors in the kingdom.
www.bloomberg.com
November 21, 2025 at 7:37 AM
US & Saudi Arabia paved the way for a nuclear tech-sharing deal, reports @bloomberg.com. A 123 agreement with customary non-proliferation requirements is yet to be signed & it’s unclear if the usual US-“gold standard” ban on enrichment & reprocessing will be included 5/10
Trump appeared to approve of ROK building nuclear-powered subs after Seoul pitched them as a way to ease the US defense burden vis-à-vis DPRK, reports @nytimes.com t.ly/IGhKp. The subs would come with nonproliferation issues ROK would have to address, notes Jamie Kwong @foreignpolicy t.ly/T3yVY 4/10
Can South Korea Afford the Many Costs of Nuclear-Powered Submarines?
A Trumpian promise may be hard to deliver.
foreignpolicy.com
November 21, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Trump appeared to approve of ROK building nuclear-powered subs after Seoul pitched them as a way to ease the US defense burden vis-à-vis DPRK, reports @nytimes.com t.ly/IGhKp. The subs would come with nonproliferation issues ROK would have to address, notes Jamie Kwong @foreignpolicy t.ly/T3yVY 4/10
Airbus board chair René Obermann says Europe should develop its own tactical nukes, warning of a dangerous gap below the strategic threshold, asserting that such weapons could be used to counter to a limited Russian tactical strike, reports @politico.com 3/10
Europe needs tactical nukes to counter Putin, says Airbus chief
European aerospace heavyweight warns that the continent must have a stronger deterrent against Russia’s massive arsenal.
www.politico.eu
November 21, 2025 at 7:35 AM
Airbus board chair René Obermann says Europe should develop its own tactical nukes, warning of a dangerous gap below the strategic threshold, asserting that such weapons could be used to counter to a limited Russian tactical strike, reports @politico.com 3/10
Germany’s first space security strategy sets the new priorities around resilience, deterrence, and cooperation, writes our own #STAND @julianasuess.bsky.social @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social 2/10
Ambitionierter Aufbruch: Die erste deutsche Weltraumsicherheitsstrategie
Mit Milliardeninvestitionen und einer neuen Strategie richtet Deutschland seine Rolle im Zeitalter wachsender Bedrohungen neu aus. Dadurch...
www.swp-berlin.org
November 21, 2025 at 7:34 AM
Germany’s first space security strategy sets the new priorities around resilience, deterrence, and cooperation, writes our own #STAND @julianasuess.bsky.social @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social 2/10
House of Dynamite sparked experts takes:
💭 check our STAND’s @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social @spiegel.de t.ly/DiRbh,
🗣️ a discussion with @heatherwilly.bsky.social, Tom Karako & Kari Bingen @CSIS t.ly/bkxK7
🎙️ a Strategic Simplicity episode with Charlie Glaser & Austin Long t.ly/i55MY 10/10
💭 check our STAND’s @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social @spiegel.de t.ly/DiRbh,
🗣️ a discussion with @heatherwilly.bsky.social, Tom Karako & Kari Bingen @CSIS t.ly/bkxK7
🎙️ a Strategic Simplicity episode with Charlie Glaser & Austin Long t.ly/i55MY 10/10
(S+) Atomwaffen: »Die Wahrscheinlichkeit für einen Atomkrieg ist gewachsen«
Wie realistisch ist der Nuklearthriller »A House of Dynamite«? Der Sicherheitsexperte Liviu Horovitz erklärt, wann es wirklich zu einem dritten Weltkrieg kommen könnte.
t.ly
November 7, 2025 at 8:43 AM
House of Dynamite sparked experts takes:
💭 check our STAND’s @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social @spiegel.de t.ly/DiRbh,
🗣️ a discussion with @heatherwilly.bsky.social, Tom Karako & Kari Bingen @CSIS t.ly/bkxK7
🎙️ a Strategic Simplicity episode with Charlie Glaser & Austin Long t.ly/i55MY 10/10
💭 check our STAND’s @liviuhorovitz.bsky.social @spiegel.de t.ly/DiRbh,
🗣️ a discussion with @heatherwilly.bsky.social, Tom Karako & Kari Bingen @CSIS t.ly/bkxK7
🎙️ a Strategic Simplicity episode with Charlie Glaser & Austin Long t.ly/i55MY 10/10
Nuclear deterrence has shaped global security since 1945. Critics note its moral & strategic limits, but disarmament calls haven’t swayed policy. Deterrence logic still dominates, though attitudes could change after another major nuclear incident, argues Michael Rühle #SIRIUS 9/10
80 Jahre nach Hiroshima: Die Evolution der nuklearen Abschreckung und der Konzepte zu ihrer Überwindung
Zusammenfassung Seit dem Beginn des Nuklearzeitalters ist nukleare Abschreckung ein wichtiger Faktor der internationalen Sicherheit. Entsprechend reichhaltig ist die Literatur zu diesem Thema. Obwohl ...
www.degruyterbrill.com
November 7, 2025 at 8:42 AM
Nuclear deterrence has shaped global security since 1945. Critics note its moral & strategic limits, but disarmament calls haven’t swayed policy. Deterrence logic still dominates, though attitudes could change after another major nuclear incident, argues Michael Rühle #SIRIUS 9/10
This September's Zapad exercise underscores the complex interplay between military signaling, political maneuvering & nuclear posture in the Russia-Belarus relationship, argue @gabrielairosa.bsky.social and @dexeve.bsky.social @thebulletin.org 8/10
The 'Zapad' exercise and how Lukashenko learned to love the Bomb
Despite being highly anticipated, the sudden change in public rhetoric about this year's Zapad strategic military exercise suggests that the Russia-Belarus relationship may be more complicated than it...
thebulletin.org
November 7, 2025 at 8:40 AM
This September's Zapad exercise underscores the complex interplay between military signaling, political maneuvering & nuclear posture in the Russia-Belarus relationship, argue @gabrielairosa.bsky.social and @dexeve.bsky.social @thebulletin.org 8/10
NATO’s nuclear deterrence debate has focused mainly on whether US weapons should be modernized in response to Russia’s aggression or whether the US under Trump is still reliable. Yet the question of a credible nuclear strategy remains missing, argues Karl-Heinz Kamp @defensenews.bsky.social 7/10
Why NATO needs a new nuclear strategy
Opinion: A modern NATO nuclear strategy does not require reinventing the wheel, writes German defense analyst Karl-Heinz Kamp.
www.defensenews.com
November 7, 2025 at 8:35 AM
NATO’s nuclear deterrence debate has focused mainly on whether US weapons should be modernized in response to Russia’s aggression or whether the US under Trump is still reliable. Yet the question of a credible nuclear strategy remains missing, argues Karl-Heinz Kamp @defensenews.bsky.social 7/10
In a new five-year plan endorsed last week, China pledged to strengthen its strategic deterrence, purportedly to safeguard global balance. Analysts suspect Beijing aims to secure a second-strike capability to safeguard its regional designs, reports @scmpnews.bsky.social 6/10
China’s next 5-year plan aims to narrow nuclear gap with US and Russia: analysts
Beijing’s proposed national blueprint links strategic forces with the global balance for the first time.
www.scmp.com
November 7, 2025 at 8:35 AM
In a new five-year plan endorsed last week, China pledged to strengthen its strategic deterrence, purportedly to safeguard global balance. Analysts suspect Beijing aims to secure a second-strike capability to safeguard its regional designs, reports @scmpnews.bsky.social 6/10
Golden Dome could potentially cost a trillion dollars more and take at least a decade — if not longer — to complete, according to defense and budget analysts. This stands in stark contrast to Trump’s three-year deadline and $175 billion budget, reports @washingtonpost.com 5/10
Inside Trump’s Golden Dome: High-stakes debate over missile-defense shield
President Donald Trump’s missile defense system aims to protect the U.S. from nuclear attack, but it may destabilize global security and cost over $1 trillion.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 7, 2025 at 8:33 AM
Golden Dome could potentially cost a trillion dollars more and take at least a decade — if not longer — to complete, according to defense and budget analysts. This stands in stark contrast to Trump’s three-year deadline and $175 billion budget, reports @washingtonpost.com 5/10
Trump’s call to resume US nuclear testing signals a volatile new era of mistrust & eroding norms,writes @dbsalisbury.bsky.social #IISS 🔗 t.ly/XtluL. Europe must defend the testing taboo & press for restraint, argue Astrid Chevreuil & @doreenhorschig.bsky.social @lawfaremedia 🔗 t.ly/nY4nW 4/10
A return to nuclear testing in an unstable age?
President Trump has suggested that the US will return to nuclear testing ‘on an equal basis’. Although his statement may not end a three-decade long US unilateral moratorium on nuclear test explosions, it is emblematic of a new and increasingly unstable nuclear age.
www.iiss.org
November 7, 2025 at 8:33 AM
Trump’s call to resume US nuclear testing signals a volatile new era of mistrust & eroding norms,writes @dbsalisbury.bsky.social #IISS 🔗 t.ly/XtluL. Europe must defend the testing taboo & press for restraint, argue Astrid Chevreuil & @doreenhorschig.bsky.social @lawfaremedia 🔗 t.ly/nY4nW 4/10
The US Energy Secretary, who oversees nuclear testing, dismissed plans to resume such activities, suggesting Trump may have meant delivery systems. However, the US President doubled down on nuclear testing in an interview aired later, reports @washingtonpost.com 3/10
Trump energy secretary says no nuclear explosions for now
After the president called for resuming nuclear testing “immediately,” the official said the administration is planning only system tests.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 7, 2025 at 8:31 AM
The US Energy Secretary, who oversees nuclear testing, dismissed plans to resume such activities, suggesting Trump may have meant delivery systems. However, the US President doubled down on nuclear testing in an interview aired later, reports @washingtonpost.com 3/10
Responding to Trump’s call to resume nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with Russia & China, Moscow said it was testing delivery systems, not warheads — but could resume if the US did, reports @nytimes.com t.ly/IWkYf. China also denied nuclear testing, reports @scmpnews.bsky.social t.ly/TtTLE 2/10
Russia Says It Didn’t Test Nuclear Weapons, but Would if the U.S. Did
www.nytimes.com
November 7, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Responding to Trump’s call to resume nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with Russia & China, Moscow said it was testing delivery systems, not warheads — but could resume if the US did, reports @nytimes.com t.ly/IWkYf. China also denied nuclear testing, reports @scmpnews.bsky.social t.ly/TtTLE 2/10
House of Dynamite is brilliant cinema, but more fiction than reality: even if a missile’s origin is hidden, the US can respond after detonation, explains former NSC official Tom Wright t.ly/jB40t. The Pentagon controversially says interceptors have shown 100% accuracy @bloomberg.com t.ly/JAPD1 10/10
A dynamite film, but a house of cards on nuclear reality
The new thriller captures nuclear tension brilliantly, but its premise about retaliation timing misses how deterrence works.
t.ly
October 31, 2025 at 8:17 AM
House of Dynamite is brilliant cinema, but more fiction than reality: even if a missile’s origin is hidden, the US can respond after detonation, explains former NSC official Tom Wright t.ly/jB40t. The Pentagon controversially says interceptors have shown 100% accuracy @bloomberg.com t.ly/JAPD1 10/10