Doing it piecemeal surely makes it more likely they have to come back needing more yet again next year (especially if the reason for the economy doing 'better' is inflation so pay awards etc will be higher with more spending). So they are just dragging the political misery out into the longer term.

See, the good news is that I live off hot air.

That won't be as radical as activists would like, but it would need to be - for want of a better word - liberal.

But also a gap between where the voters are and where the party leadership are.

Given how similar Lab and LD voters are, there is a genuine opportunity for the LDs to pick up those disgruntled with the government...but that requires the LD leadership to say something that appeals.

Plus changing the thresholds will be seen as a tax rise. Might as well be hanged for a sheep as for a lamb.

"The finances are actually better now so no need to raise taxes" also just delays the tax raises to the next budget rather than doing the difficult thing now. It just gives multiple years of bad headlines instead of a few months.

[or even KC. Old habits etc etc]

I feel the biggest lesson of the Caerphilly by-election was that the 'Not-Reform' block in a Labour-held seat is able to quickly and relatively easily move to a candidate that is also 'Not-Labour'.