In pure abstract statistical and probabilistic terms, combining the above, you get a 0.0359%, or roughly 1 in 2,789 chance of Madrid going through.

None of these stats make me feel better. My pants are enshittified, but inshallah, Arteta knows exactly what we need. #COYG #Arsenal #RealMadrid #AFC

In short, I don’t believe in Jinxes, but if I did, I’d say that I haven’t said Arsenal are going through, and that Madrid can’t do something terrible and evil. What I am saying is “these are some statistics”. But, fuck #Madrid, let’s go #Arsenal. #COYG #UCL #championsleague #RealvsArsenal #ArtetaIN

So the modelled of probability of Arsenal conceding 3+ goals? 10.36%.
Of Madrid keeping a clean sheet? 7.69%.
Of a historical 3–0 comeback? 4.5%.

Remember we have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 games in Europe this season, whilst Madrid have managed 1 in 13.

I am still in a state of terror.

This season Arsenal have conceded 0.55 goals/game in Europe with an xGA of 1.12.
But Madrid concede 1.54 goals/game with an xGA of 1.69

And only 4.5% of teams have ever overturned a 3–0 first-leg deficit.

So, whilst technically we have overperformed defensively, Madrid are defensively leaky.

Arsenal have never been eliminated from Europe after winning the home leg 3–0.

Real Madrid have never overturned a 3–0 first-leg defeat in Europe.

But, I’m as terrified of an early goal for Madrid as anyone. A LOT about how the game plays out depends on when and if Madrid score first IMHO.

In UEFA competitions, teams who win the 1st leg 3–0 at home go through 95.5% of the time—147 out of 154 ties.

But, this is Madrid at the Bernabéu, and Carlo has his eyebrow thing which is apparently some sort of dark magic. I do not like dark magic.

The last time we conceded 3 in Europe was March 7, 2017—73 matches ago, totalling 6,570 minutes. That was not a good night. Nightmarish in fact. Let’s try not to think about that one.

@arseblog.com @gunnerblog.bsky.social @arsenalvisionpodcast.com @clivepafc.bsky.social @amylawrence.bsky.social @northbanksy.bsky.social

So the modelled of probability of Arsenal conceding 3+ goals? 10.36%.
Of Madrid keeping a clean sheet? 7.69%.
Of a historical 3–0 comeback? 4.5%.

Remember we have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 games in Europe this season, whilst Madrid have managed 1 in 13.

Yet I am still in a state of terror.

This season Arsenal have conceded 0.55 goals/game in Europe with an xGA of 1.12.
But Madrid concede 1.54 goals/game with an xGA of 1.69

And only 4.5% of teams have ever overturned a 3–0 first-leg deficit.

So, whilst technically we have overperformed defensively, Madrid are defensively leaky.

Arsenal have never been eliminated from Europe after winning the home leg 3–0.

Real Madrid have never overturned a 3–0 first-leg defeat in Europe.

But, I’m as terrified of an early goal for Madrid as anyone. A LOT about how the game plays out depends on when and if Madrid score first IMHO.

@arseblog.com @gunnerblog.bsky.social are we cutting the team/manager enough slack? Missing Odegaard, Saka, Rice, White and Calafiori at various intervals, and rarely had what we would consider best 11 (or 16) available. When we have, we’ve looked like a great team (I.e Sporting) #arsecastextra

Literally four of Trumps cabinet nominees have sexual assault, harassment or child sex trafficking. You’re a troll.