Lenny Bronner
@lennybronner.com
founding member of election bluesky
broke: age differential voting
woke: age differential in turnout
woke: age differential in turnout
November 5, 2025 at 2:00 PM
broke: age differential voting
woke: age differential in turnout
woke: age differential in turnout
Can also be seen in the margin shift by largest demographic group in the precinct, which he gained a lot in Black and Hispanic precincts.
November 5, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Can also be seen in the margin shift by largest demographic group in the precinct, which he gained a lot in Black and Hispanic precincts.
Mamdani's gains relative to the primary was really driven by the Bronx and Brooklyn, elsewhere it stayed relatively constant.
November 5, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Mamdani's gains relative to the primary was really driven by the Bronx and Brooklyn, elsewhere it stayed relatively constant.
Presidents’ names are getting shorter. Why?
incredible investigation by @andrewvandam.bsky.social and @alyssafowers.bsky.social
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
incredible investigation by @andrewvandam.bsky.social and @alyssafowers.bsky.social
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
September 12, 2025 at 7:04 PM
Presidents’ names are getting shorter. Why?
incredible investigation by @andrewvandam.bsky.social and @alyssafowers.bsky.social
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
incredible investigation by @andrewvandam.bsky.social and @alyssafowers.bsky.social
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
inside you are two wolves
August 27, 2025 at 2:30 PM
inside you are two wolves
What if Trump’s gains with minorities weren’t about Trump at all?
@andrewvandam.bsky.social and I took a look at recent election results in NYC, Toronto and London and tried to figure out why we're seeing similar trends in all three cities
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
@andrewvandam.bsky.social and I took a look at recent election results in NYC, Toronto and London and tried to figure out why we're seeing similar trends in all three cities
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
July 7, 2025 at 2:27 PM
What if Trump’s gains with minorities weren’t about Trump at all?
@andrewvandam.bsky.social and I took a look at recent election results in NYC, Toronto and London and tried to figure out why we're seeing similar trends in all three cities
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
@andrewvandam.bsky.social and I took a look at recent election results in NYC, Toronto and London and tried to figure out why we're seeing similar trends in all three cities
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
Also, an interesting finding: there looks like there is a divide in how well Dems do between red and blue states. Might be another sign of Democrats unpopularity in places they have governed.
June 27, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Also, an interesting finding: there looks like there is a divide in how well Dems do between red and blue states. Might be another sign of Democrats unpopularity in places they have governed.
also some bits on why the turnout vs. persuasion argument completely misses the point. The pew data shows that for November (but fwiw so does tuesdays election)
June 26, 2025 at 7:14 PM
also some bits on why the turnout vs. persuasion argument completely misses the point. The pew data shows that for November (but fwiw so does tuesdays election)
were you looking for another article on the Pew data released today? we got you covered:
Trump shook Democrats’ hold on non-White voters in 2024, report finds
w/ @sfcpoll.bsky.social
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Trump shook Democrats’ hold on non-White voters in 2024, report finds
w/ @sfcpoll.bsky.social
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
June 26, 2025 at 7:14 PM
were you looking for another article on the Pew data released today? we got you covered:
Trump shook Democrats’ hold on non-White voters in 2024, report finds
w/ @sfcpoll.bsky.social
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Trump shook Democrats’ hold on non-White voters in 2024, report finds
w/ @sfcpoll.bsky.social
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
sometimes it does also come down to turnout
June 25, 2025 at 1:18 PM
sometimes it does also come down to turnout
could be a statistical bow tie
June 24, 2025 at 10:26 PM
could be a statistical bow tie
Something I hadn't noticed before in @electproject.bsky.social analysis: while 2022 was the first midterm since 1990 where the electorate was whiter than the previous midterm, in 2024 earlier trend continues, the 2024 electorate was less white than 2020
michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/2024-votin...
michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/2024-votin...
June 3, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Something I hadn't noticed before in @electproject.bsky.social analysis: while 2022 was the first midterm since 1990 where the electorate was whiter than the previous midterm, in 2024 earlier trend continues, the 2024 electorate was less white than 2020
michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/2024-votin...
michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/2024-votin...
TIL that MA archives their election results with the correct (if confusing when looking things up quickly) color scheme
electionstats.state.ma.us/elections/vi...
electionstats.state.ma.us/elections/vi...
June 2, 2025 at 1:50 PM
TIL that MA archives their election results with the correct (if confusing when looking things up quickly) color scheme
electionstats.state.ma.us/elections/vi...
electionstats.state.ma.us/elections/vi...
A Russian spy story? Obviously must have some Österreichbezug
May 21, 2025 at 12:15 PM
A Russian spy story? Obviously must have some Österreichbezug
The Social Democratic Party continues to dominate and came in first. Though they lost ~2% making this one of their worst results since 1945. They will likely continue in a coalition government with the liberal NEOS who gained 2.5%, surprising for the junior partner.
April 28, 2025 at 5:41 PM
The Social Democratic Party continues to dominate and came in first. Though they lost ~2% making this one of their worst results since 1945. They will likely continue in a coalition government with the liberal NEOS who gained 2.5%, surprising for the junior partner.
There were state elections in my hometown of Vienna yesterday! Contrary to the zeitgeist, the governing coalition gained in % compared to the last election. This is actually the second time in a row that this happened (after 2015-2020), though both times it was caused by falling turnout.
April 28, 2025 at 5:41 PM
There were state elections in my hometown of Vienna yesterday! Contrary to the zeitgeist, the governing coalition gained in % compared to the last election. This is actually the second time in a row that this happened (after 2015-2020), though both times it was caused by falling turnout.
Narrowly looking at Dane county precincts only, Crawford saw a larger shift from Harris' in places with lower turnout relative to November
April 2, 2025 at 12:50 PM
Narrowly looking at Dane county precincts only, Crawford saw a larger shift from Harris' in places with lower turnout relative to November
Gonna tell my kids that this was the emerging Democratic majority
April 2, 2025 at 1:56 AM
Gonna tell my kids that this was the emerging Democratic majority
Crawford's over-performance in Dane County precincts that have finished reporting already so far is ~6.5
April 2, 2025 at 1:39 AM
Crawford's over-performance in Dane County precincts that have finished reporting already so far is ~6.5
and they call this trick the uniform swing
April 2, 2025 at 12:49 AM
and they call this trick the uniform swing
ARD vs. ZDF choose your fighter
February 23, 2025 at 5:07 PM
ARD vs. ZDF choose your fighter
Below you can see samples of the variance you'd expect given the current polls and I've highlighted the actual observed variance. In both cases, but especially for the FDP, the observed variance is a little low.
February 22, 2025 at 11:14 PM
Below you can see samples of the variance you'd expect given the current polls and I've highlighted the actual observed variance. In both cases, but especially for the FDP, the observed variance is a little low.
Final polling average for the German election tomorrow. The polls in the last few week have been relatively constant*. The conservative CDU/CSU is expected to come first with around 30% (compared to 24% in 2021), the far-right AfD is expected to double from 10% to 20-21%.
February 22, 2025 at 11:14 PM
Final polling average for the German election tomorrow. The polls in the last few week have been relatively constant*. The conservative CDU/CSU is expected to come first with around 30% (compared to 24% in 2021), the far-right AfD is expected to double from 10% to 20-21%.
CDU/CSU is now below 30% in the average of polls for the German Bundestag election next month
January 29, 2025 at 1:13 PM
CDU/CSU is now below 30% in the average of polls for the German Bundestag election next month